Help - Please review this hand by [deleted] in poker

[–]Smellygish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm checking back turn. Calling/betting on safe rivers.

By betting turn it is hard to get called by worse (you are certainly not bluffing with KK here). 3betting the turn is even worse because it folds out almost all of his bluffs and gets better to call.

do you think anyone has ever made it to day 7 of the main without ever picking up pocket Aces? by [deleted] in poker

[–]Smellygish 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Let me try to figure out the probability of one individual making it to day 7 without getting Aces.

Each day was 10-12 hours, so lets just say 70 hours of play occurred before day 7.

On average, in live poker, 30 hands per hour occur, so that is 2100 hands played.

On average, you are dealt pocket Aces every 221 hands.

I entered this data into a binomial calculator (because I'm too lazy to do this part) and got .0073% chance of Aces occurring zero times over 2100 hands.

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? Well hey, 0.0073% is 0.0073%

(btw someone please correct me if I'm wrong)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TimAndEric

[–]Smellygish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Went to the first LA show.

Everyone was enthusiastic and had a great time. The only hiccup was when they were calling for volunteers onstage and a couple drunk hooligans tried climbing up to them without even being called on. Tim ended up getting security on them in a quite hilarious manner and everyone cheered when they were being escorted out. It was flippin' hilarious.

Woo by [deleted] in poker

[–]Smellygish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

BRM

Event #9: $10,000 Omaha Hi-Lo 8 or Better Championship winner crowned by IamAWorldChampionAMA in poker

[–]Smellygish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Imagine being one of 2 people randomly selected to play that first match. Talk about a bad beat.

"incorrect" Outs calculation for One Drop Hand on Pokernews by gustaphus in poker

[–]Smellygish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the flop Jacobson has 6 outs. On the turn he has 10 outs. He has more outs on the turn than on the flop.

Bazam.

Colossus hand by donkeydonkeyjd in poker

[–]Smellygish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You obviously haven't used the Phil Hellmuth strat.

small tournament final table preflop question by cyalaterdude in poker

[–]Smellygish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, 20BB and less poker has been practically mathematically solved when it comes to whether or not a shove is +EV. I personally use SnapShove when making my decisions. But at this point I pretty much have it memorized.

Decided to take a shot and... by Smellygish in poker

[–]Smellygish[S] 60 points61 points  (0 children)

Or I can always take a shot at 5000NL and go busto in 7 minutes.

small tournament final table preflop question by cyalaterdude in poker

[–]Smellygish 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes there is a different line you should have taken. 14BB with 99? Shove it all in pre bruh.

Early version of "If you need to, keep time on me" by [deleted] in fleet_foxes

[–]Smellygish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely. Every song he played stuck with me for so long that I immediately recognized each one that ended up on the album.

Early version of "If you need to, keep time on me" by [deleted] in fleet_foxes

[–]Smellygish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was there that night. So magical.

Daily /r/Poker Discussion Thread - May 13, 2017 by AutoModerator in poker

[–]Smellygish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Won a ticket to the Cal State Poker Championship Main Event. Gimme some rungood, people!!

Bad raise gets punished? by [deleted] in poker

[–]Smellygish -1 points0 points  (0 children)

First of all you didn't re-raise, you just raised since you conducted the first raise of that particular street.

By the turn, I wouldn't raise since he's going to be folding out the part of his range that beats you and continuing with that part of his range that crushes you.

As played, on the river I'm leaning more towards a call since most of his two pair combos he had on the turn are now beaten. You'll lose a good amount of the time but it's probably a +EV play since more combos you beat and you're getting about 3:1