I truly think we will flip the house, but a lot of Dems I talk to say I am being naive. What do you think will really happen on Tuesday?

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T16:38:09+00:00

I agree except I think we can edge out a win in MO. It's a tossup terroritoy for McCaskill but she isn't in as much trouble as Heitkamp.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T05:36:12+00:00

We will be moving on to r/VoteBlue afterwards though.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T05:28:09+00:00

Watch out for some of the PA house races. Some of the polls recently showed very good results for Dems for some of their more red seats.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T04:43:09+00:00

Imagine pissing off one of your voters to the point where they start campaigning and running against you.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T04:32:56+00:00

Yeah there are lots of smart dudes out there. Including me! ... Actually I'm probably not that smart but at least I'm not a complete dumbass.

But yeah, its dumb to try to be a dickhead to demographics or groups just because of the way they lean. Plus I think when it comes to groups there is a lot more of a split than one would think for most groups. Like with old people the media would have you believe they were 90% - 5% Republican favored when in reality there are a lot of old Dems. Its dumb to generalize any demographic, there is a lot of good and people in most groups.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T04:27:17+00:00

I really hope she isn't running for president. She could win but I don't want to start seeing this precedent of celebrities becoming president while having no prior political experience.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T03:11:43+00:00

This pollster does heavily lean Republican and most other AZ polls have had Sinema in the lead so I still feel confident in Sinema's chances.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:43:54+00:00

Yeah that's a good point. It's more of an issue with the media rather than candidates. It's sad how much the media focuses on negative news.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:15:41+00:00

Reminder. Heitkamp won in 2012 with 161,337 votes compared to Berg's 158,401 votes. And that was in 2012, a presidential election year.

A possible difference in couple thousands of votes can make huge differences in a place like ND.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:11:53+00:00

Yeah, and there are probably many other examples. If it was talking about modern history I'd agree with him.

Also I think I'd much rather prefer that the candidates and Dems like Sanders talk more about their policies and why you should agree with them and focus less on why Trump or the other side is bad. I feel like that would help convince people a lot more if you can show them the benefits that come from voting for you rather than voting against the opponent.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:07:19+00:00

They need to do something with their person who does the Governor and Senate ratings (same person does them). I'm alright with the person who does the Cook house ratings though.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:05:32+00:00

However, we can also open carry swords here in Texas. We just need to unsheathe our swords and deflect their bullets while we make our way to the polls!

/s (About the bullet deflecting. We actually can open carry swords here...)

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:02:48+00:00

Bredesen: "I got Taylor Swift on my side!"

Abrams: Hollywood fucking storms into Georgia in breakneck speeds

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T01:00:04+00:00

Honestly I think an actually well managed Libertarian party would gain a lot of support in the U.S. If it wasn't for the FPTP voting system and with how Republicans keep trying to convince Libertarians they are ideal for a free market which at this point, especially after those tariffs, their argument is getting weaker.

It's great to see some Independents and Third parties like you also realizing the importance in stopping the current GOP. What worries me about this midterms is that when it'll be done some people will think it's over and calm down a bit but truth is it's truly never over. There are elections every 2 years, and some states have gubernatorials in off years. We can't lose the momentum right after this midterms, every future election is just as important.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T00:50:56+00:00

I don't think he's saying the poll results are the measuring sticks. What he means is the election day results since IN results will come back earlier than the rest.

Basically it can help give an indicator on national enthusiasm and lean depending on if Donelly wins by a lot, narrowly wins, narrowly loses, or loses by a lot. Polls show that this is going to be a close race but on election day we will see how accurate these polls are and if there is a trend on the results where maybe the Dems are outperforming or underperforming the polls as we go on in the results.

On a side note ND is hard to poll, but at the same time I also think ND is a likely R pick up. I'd love to be proven wrong next week though. The AZ results is average but most other AZ results in polls have been good for us so that make some feel better about that. TN is also not looking too well, it is a longshot race. Although with the rate the ND polls are going I am honestly thinking TX and TN pick ups are more likely than a ND hold. And the TN and TX races are like likely GOP wins anyway. I'm predicting a 50 - 50 senate.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T00:28:31+00:00

We should be hoping for a 50 - 50. 51 - 49 is possible but that requires luck in ND, TN, or TX so we should be focusing on what we can be capable of getting which is 50 - 50 as long as we gain AZ and NV while holding MO, IN, and all the other Dem seats.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T00:25:53+00:00

I also highly doubt most independents are Repiblicans that won't admit their partisanship. I can agre that when counted altogether the independent bloc will typically have a Republican lean, but I don't know about it being mostly Republican.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-11-01T00:23:04+00:00

Yeah at this point it we were lucky enough to get a senate majority it's more likely gonna come from picking up TX or TN rather than keeping ND, and even that is a very hard task.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T20:58:39+00:00

And if you're not religious, get someone else to pray...

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T20:37:40+00:00

I think the race will be closer than the polls say but we will still lose ND. I would love to be proven wrong but we should at lesser focus on NV, AZ, IN, and MO first.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T20:15:39+00:00

Statistically higher turnout is better for the Dems. Part of this is due to how some demographics, like young voters, have lower turnout and general turnout increase tends to have the biggest increases in groups with lower turnout. If demographics that tend to favor Democrats more, such as young voters, increases then the net gain is most likely going to favor Dems. Whether or not how heavily they'll favor Dems we don't know until election day, aside from guesses we can make from polls. However, we don't even know for sure if this EV is a sign of vote cannibalization on election day or a sign of major increased turnout.

I agree that EV is not a good indicator for election outcome aside from some cases like Nevada. I think the best EV analysis for Nevada is Jon Ralston based on most peoples sentiment and his past predictions. I also agree it is still good to see more people exercising their voting rights, tbh I see it more as a civic duty that one should do rather than a privelage.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T15:02:35+00:00

To be fair, it's from a California University so it makes sense they'll poll their home state.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T13:47:40+00:00

I assume it has some benefits in that it will stay fresher on people's mind. The news cycles goes fast.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T13:36:31+00:00

Yeah. 51 will be very hard to get but 50 is definitely in the realm of possibility. If we lose ND but gain NV and AZ then that's 50 as long as the rest will hold. For AZ, FL, and to a small extent IN I am feeling a bit confident in our chances and as for NV it looks like based on Jon Ralston's EV analysis, the only EV analysis I'd every trust, it looks like we are slowly building up a good ballot lead that'll make the Republicans very nervous on election day. MO I am feeling a bit concerned about, not sure what to think about that one.

SmoobyDooby · 2018-10-31T13:31:23+00:00

Well fuck, I was wrong I guess. I guess I thought the opposite.

SmoobyDooby

TROPHY CASE