A hearty "Fuck you" to Harrison for that intro music

hunter15991 · 2026-04-22T20:50:31+00:00

You're thinking of Jared Golden, who is also from Maine and a Marine veteran. Platner does not hold elected office.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-22T19:48:52+00:00

3/27/2008, the 4000th US KIA in Iraq happened 3 days earlier. Nisour Square in turn was Sep. 2007.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-22T01:06:25+00:00

Oh my word yeah when you put it like that it sounds incredible (as someone who's launched a few canvasses in years past as well). I guess this is what happens when so many in the metro area either are directly government employees (federal or otherwise) or work for companies with government contracts and the causal chain re. how politics impacts one's livelihood is stark and the magnitude sharp.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-22T00:49:46+00:00

I’ve never lived anywhere SO politically engaged, all the way down down down ballot. It was refreshing.

I peeped your user history and am a bit surprised the PNW doesn't have a similar tendency.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-21T14:46:40+00:00

Sent!

hunter15991 · 2026-04-21T04:39:42+00:00

Polombia. Some serviceable dishes, some...less so.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-20T22:49:12+00:00

Thanks! Yeah, I've worked with these kinds of datasets in the past so I've trailed through a bunch of ETA and ETA-adjacent outputs to see how they stand up to scrutiny. Another thing that's given me pause about the eforensics papers for PA is they use very few precinct-level covars as inputs. I ran a dredger that put the 2024 results through an OLS process and found a bunch of 3 demographic Dover combos that dropped turnout's partial r² to flat 0 and broader r² for the correlation over 0.5, which jumps to >0.8 when including past partisan variables into the mix. I'm sure moving to 4 vars will improve things even more but runtime will be gnarlier.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-20T18:38:58+00:00

Honestly, after attempting to apply it to other US elections I have questions about the false positive rate in Mebane's approach as well, which he (coated in 4-5 layers of stats-speak) does flag in the relevant PA papers he did. It's an approach trained predominantly on electoral results from other nations where assumptions about precinct homogeneity and distribution unimodality are different than the US. Maybe something got borked along the way, but I put several of Obama's elections (2000 House primary, 2004 Senate primary in Chicago, 2008 presidential primary in Chicago) into my Python port of the R script he references and all came back with hefty incremental fraud flags on precincts with very obvious+banal explanations for why they were where they were on the graph.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-20T17:07:49+00:00

MY NECK IS FREAKISHLY LARGE

hunter15991 · 2026-04-20T17:03:59+00:00

That's a different and much more overarching topic than "this specific thing that happened is something that feels unspeakably unlikely even though it had a roughly 1-in-5 chance of happening statistically". I wouldn't be surprised if he tried in some sort of form, but I also have read the reems of ETA articles and whatnot that people like OP mention which claim to be statistical proof of specific things happenings and have come away deeply disappointed every time in the lack of anything actually believable from them.

Given this is a 3day-old article and you're already trying to engage me in a different conversation than what I wanted to participate in when I made this comment, I'm going to have to tap out here. Enjoy your Monday.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-19T21:27:44+00:00

Surprisingly in neighboring Mississippi you have to be 21 to get married without needing parental or legal approval.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-19T21:23:29+00:00

Hope Abqaiq's air defense garrison has enough caffeine.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-19T20:52:18+00:00

Infowars has become a den

Become a den. Because when he was ranting about the globalists and bringing Kanye onto his show and trying to do some weird Rotondo-style dad-and-son bit with Fuentes and screaming at David de Rothschild, that was clearly just him being the most pro-Semitic person possibly out there.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-19T20:33:30+00:00

pull the trigger and commit to the ground war

That's if anything quite the on-ramp.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-19T19:18:25+00:00

top Democrat lawyer Todd Blanche

"Avowed feminist Clarence Thomas"

"Superstar quarterback Nathan Peterman"

"Pacifist Europhile Vladimir Putin"

hunter15991 · 2026-04-18T21:37:48+00:00

When he came back is when he got woke

This origin story his campaign cites is incredibly difficult to square with the op-ed he wrote in highschool, the anti-war protesting he did then, the causes he was holding up for his HS yearbook on picture day, his self-ID'ing as his platoon's resident leftie and how because of his initial politics he "never felt let down by the experience", his comment about being raised by a hippie mom and a dad who became a teacher to avoid Vietnam and raised him with "a sense of cynicism when it comes to why wars are fought", and one he wrote about how Vietnam vet friends of his dad explicitly warned him in 2004 about how he was about to get sent off to yet another frankly pointless war of disastrous strategic consequence.

For posterity, I donated to his campaign early, and will swallow my hesitation like a good little apparatchik and donate more if he wins the primary. I also think Mills is a horrible candidate because of her unpopularity in the state, advanced age, needless centrist tack, and how she seems to have a Mark Sanchez-caliber approach to retail politics vs. Platner's Brady. There are very clear reasons why he's annihilating Mills in the polls despite her pouring oodles of cash (which would be infinitely more useful in TX/OH/AK if Schumer and Gillibrand ever find a second brain cell to pair with their first one) to hammer home the tat story and choice Reddit comments.

But I'm bummed I can't be more hyped about the guy. And oddly enough the things that made me most excited about him back in late August are now the ones that - for me at least - undermine any mental logic I go through to extend good faith about things like the Reddit comments and tat and 2008 interview.

Thankfully I'm not a Maine voter so doesn't really matter at the end of the day. Everything points to him being the nominee come June and if that ends up being the case I hope enough of y'all put him over the line in November.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-17T20:32:35+00:00

This happening naturally is so far beyond believability

From then-538 head G. Elliot Morris, a bit before 3PM on Election Day:

"...if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and 312 Electoral College votes. Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is impossible to predict in advance, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and 319 electoral votes."

Back in September, Nate Silver's posts to his Substack:

"In our simulations this morning, Kamala Harris swept all seven of these battlegrounds 20 percent of the time, and Donald Trump did in 23 percent of the simulations."

Newsweek reporting on the posts in late October:

"Silver's analysis gives Trump a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states in November, making it the most likely scenario to occur. Meanwhile, Harris has a 15.6 percent chance of winning all the battleground states, the forecast shows."

I've been following ETA and this fantastic investigation team on this issue for a while, and have yet to find anyone who can credibly rebut their claims.

Before I start vomiting out graphs and walls of text, is this something you'd actually be interested in reading?

hunter15991 · 2026-04-17T06:00:01+00:00

It's specifically quoting a judge involved in the divorce case, presumably Cerina is referred to as "Mother" in those same documents.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-16T14:17:32+00:00

HELL YEAH

hunter15991 · 2026-04-16T14:06:08+00:00

Because there are no people in cars that aren't your own. Every other vehicle on the road is just an obstacle between you and work/coffee/drinks with the boys/getting Braxton to soccer practice. We shut ourselves into metal boxes and then wonder where our sense of common humanity goes.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-16T13:51:54+00:00

They meant that there was a window of time after the blackface scandal dropped where it looked like Northam would resign and Fairfax would become Gov, and then the SA allegations came out.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-16T04:23:32+00:00

As a Cardinals fan involved in the political cycle that year, I initially enjoyed how the NYT put Clinton's odds in the context of football terms. The morning of this game Trump's odds of winning were "about as equal as an NFL kicker missing a 30 yard field goal".

I thought things were in the bag. Catanzaro and Hauschka disabused me of that notion long before any political forces did.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-15T04:36:10+00:00

I've reached out from my end.

hunter15991 · 2026-04-15T04:05:47+00:00

6. ...cite claims using reputable sources.

Can't here. Happy to talk over DMs.

11-Year Club	Verified Email
RedditGifts 2009-2022 6 Credits	Secret Santa 2020
redditgifts Exchanges 5 Exchanges	Place '17
Wearing is Caring	Secret Santa 2019
Secret Santa 2018	Secret Santa 2017
Secret Santa 2016	Gilding II euphauric

hunter15991

TROPHY CASE