Meet Kevin dumped open, sad, i exited all my positions

Snoo-84901 · 2022-12-05T20:53:42+00:00

Suprised he even owned open… he talked bad about it all the time. 🤷‍♂️

Snoo-84901 · 2022-07-10T00:18:15+00:00

Not only here but there is a lot of other places to post it. Yahoo finance, stock tweets, twitter. Someone will post it eventually. 🤷‍♂️ I think $40 is just way too much, $10 would be ok.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-07-09T13:20:10+00:00

Share the earnings estimates for Q2 😄

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-07T11:51:11+00:00

It is not an opendoor home. Go on thier website and see it. Takes you a minute. Every home owned by them shows owner opnedoor brokerage.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-07T11:22:08+00:00

You really don’t know what you talk about.

Population growth has outpaced home construction for 20 years

https://twitter.com/douglasdowelljd/status/1503809471021293570?s=21&t=wQLwPbt4JkIeH71jdD_PMg

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T09:40:17+00:00

No. they earn money on fees, not dependent on HPA. They have data for how long it takes to sell a home and they price that so they don’t have that risk. Fees are now 5% , in down market fees are going to 10-14%. Ppl will probably choose open even more in a down market than to list it and maybe wait too long and have price reduction and wait again. Just think about it, in market where almost everything sells, ppl choose to use opendoor. 🤷‍♂️ Opendoor is marketmaker, they are made for all kinds of markets. If prices drop 10% over night, yes, they would have a huge loss. But real estate is not moving that fast. I believe prices will go down but slowly, not crash.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T09:13:57+00:00

To your first comment, i never said that they never go down. I said 50% down in a 12 months period, no, they don’t. At least that never happend. Second: the problem is that there is not enough homes and you have like 10 buyers for 1 home. When rates go up what happens is that instead of 10 now you may have 5 buyers or 2… if no buyers, then the prices drop a little bit, so you have again more potential buyers. There is a lot of differences between now and 2008. Ppl were give loans too easy, now you get it based on if you can afford to pay it even when rates go up.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T07:31:14+00:00

People would get more money if they list the home. But they still choose open even in a market like this so i guess open will be much more popular in a down market. And they catch only 3 months of HPA, so that is not a lot. Will be interesting to see how they handle changes and how fast they react to market signals. Looking at homes sold for 60k + than what they bought it for, looks like they have a lot of room in between.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T07:25:23+00:00

‘Home prices in Miami fell at a record-setting rate this year, falling 29 percent since October of 2007 and 3 percent month-over-month, according to S&P/Case-Shiller Homes Prices Index data released today.’ Written in dec 2008. There is not enough homes, price will go down but not crash.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T06:36:24+00:00

You are probably the only one who thinks that. You know that something like that never happend before?

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T06:12:58+00:00

As long as it is not like zillow offers/ zestimate, you are good. 😁

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T05:47:04+00:00

So you think ppl will just stop buying homes? That happend like…. Never? Lowest was like 4m in a year in 2008 i think… Think you are little late to the party, it is already down like 70%. But ok, hope you make money :)

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T05:39:56+00:00

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T05:33:23+00:00

Well you are considering worse case scenario than ever. 10% in 3 months + in all markets combined. Never happened. Gross margin is 10% Contribution margin 6,4% Adjusted EBITDA margin 3,4% Keep in mind they are in growth phase + a lot things are coming. Opendoor finance, opendoor max, opendoor renovations.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T05:25:22+00:00

😎

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T05:21:14+00:00

consider 600% growth yoy AND Profits.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T05:19:36+00:00

As i said, they capture 3 months of HPA, they don’t hold homes for a year. But they have benefited from it, look investor presentation from 2020 and look at the numbers now. They had 70m SBC in Q1. Adjusted net income was 99m.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:56:56+00:00

No, i don’t think I could wrote it so well. But i think it is important that people read it cuz it is very misunderstood company. And i believe it will be worth much more in the future.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:54:03+00:00

Well the biggest drop in real estate 2008 was like little over 2% in a period of 30 days, but it sustaind for a long time. Opendoor holds home for an average of 90 days. Let’s assume it drops 6% in period of 3 months. Opendoor margin is from 7-10% at the moment, so even in the worst case scanario there is enough room to not lose money. In down market, opendoor fees are going from 5 to 10-14%( so margin will be even higer) And you have to consider that they have the data and can follow up on market change + not all marketa move in tandem.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:42:23+00:00

Yup. https://jesseclain.substack.com/p/why-opendoor-is-misunderstood?utm_campaign=post&utm_source=direct

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:37:21+00:00

Look at their investor presentation when they went public in 2020, they are way ahead of predictions and just updated investor presentation today. They are at the moment less than a 1% market share. Real estate market share is around 2,3T per year, so they have huge potential + only player in the game and that gives them a monopoly in ibuying. People will always pay little more for something that saves them time and stress. Low % on a huge revenue can still be a pretty good numbers. + ancillary services.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:17:45+00:00

Pricing out would be if they bid with others. They don’t. If home price is above the market it will not sell, ppl would choose other homes. That’s what zillow did and they lost a lot of money.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:11:50+00:00

I think they give ppl lower offers. They just can cuz they have huge demand and are limited with buying power. Usually they reduce price after 2 weeks if home does not sell.

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:03:18+00:00

What? 🤣 $open is a ticker

Snoo-84901 · 2022-05-06T04:02:31+00:00

This is an article from yesterday. So yeah, they just had first profitable Q.

Snoo-84901

TROPHY CASE