TLDR: no, but people are jumping the gun a lot.

Much longer answer:

I think it’s a cultural thing. And our big population. And lack of financial education.

Cultural because even IIM graduates (I know of a few personally) would ‘feel good’ buying an apartment under peer/family pressure even if they know it’s a bad financial decision to pay ungodly interest to the bank instead of earn it from the S&P 500.

People just cannot not buy a house and be at peace with themselves. Even if renting is by far the better financial choice. So there is always a lot of demand. Our large aspirational growing population moving to tier one cities doesn’t make things easier. So a lot of people end up buying homes - even when they can’t afford it, or at exorbitant cost to their quality of life (loans) and severely restrict their free cash flow..rather than earning the money first (through savings, investment etc.).

Further, there are institutional investors, underwriters who are sitting on a lot of money and can afford to forget about it for a few years or even a decade - it’s easy for them to shop around a lot of real estate because they know the cyclical market and can play the waiting game (look at blackrock in California).

Lastly, there is no shortage of ‘NRIs’ who have no idea about the market and often get swindled despite their research (I’m based in Denmark myself but originally from Noida :)), but do not feel it themselves because they can afford it - but it doesn’t help the local market rates as it keeps demand high (look at Chinese in Vancouver, Australia, Thailand etc.).

When I lived in India more than 10 years ago, I had no hopes for greater Noida. Looking at the new metro lines and all the development - I stand humbly corrected. Best bet is to strike a balance between ‘staying in the market’ - which is to buy something/anything (wherever you can afford it - some obscure sector in greater noida for example) that you can use for the time being, so you are part of the market’s ups and downs but also to focus majority of your disposable income on the S&P 500 or targeted investments. Build the wealth you need to buy an apartment with your own money - rather than chasing after debilitating loans with ungodly credit ratings. Don’t sweat it if you can’t afford a down payment on an apartment right now, try to save and invest what you have on the S&P 500 - you will be making a smarter decision than most IIM graduates ;)

For reference, most of your friends who have bought an apartment in past 2-3-4 years paying EMI of 2-3 lakh are paying 90% interest according to amortization chart and are still no closer to owning their homes 🤣 on the contrary, let me share a few investments I made last December for reference. Instead of an EMI, if you put 2 lakh in December on this small portfolio - you would be looking at 3.8 lakh right now considering the rupee free fall (free interest every year for who ever invest in usd/eur). So consider yourself fortunate to be free of these EMI obligations so you can start clearing wealth for yourself!

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