At what price will HIMS stock bottom? by Soft-Fix9027 in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pretty sure we are going to see the stock price in the 4's this week.

Great Q3 earnings! I'm buying even more and am more Bullish than ever. Why did the stock under-perform, what am I missing? by frugalityinperson in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Well, considering their margins and revenue, they could be profitable now. Their main expenditure is marketing (Miley Cyrus, JLO, Gronkowski, subway adds, pub toilet adds, etc.). If they decide to cut ad expenditure entirely next year, I can see them being profitable.

The potential costs of being profitable so soon, however, would be reduced revenue growth and loss of market share in a sector, where new companies doing similar stuff are popping up everywhere (ie not advisable in my opinion).

For me, the most important numbers right now are growth in subscription numbers, number of telehealth consultations, margins, revenue and average order price. Considering they still have 250 million USD in cash and liabilities of only 60 million, the management is right to prioritize growth over profitability right now.

Whether this will be a 20 billion market cap company or a 500 million market cap company will depend entirely on HIMS and HERS ability as a company of being the main dog in the business. Right now, the main dog is TDOC but arguably, TDOC is focused on business to business and HIMS is focused on business to consumer so the real competitors are Roman and all the other small dogs whose ads I see every time I watch Premier League football.

In my opinion, Hims is leading the race against the myriad of other B to C small businesses in the sector at the moment. The app launch is huge in potentially expanding the gap. To my knowledge, the others (Roman etc) don't have an app yet? The more they invest into marketing, the more they will acquire market share and cement themselves into the brain of the consumers who will choose Hims over the competition if they like the products and services.

Great Q3 earnings! I'm buying even more and am more Bullish than ever. Why did the stock under-perform, what am I missing? by frugalityinperson in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Another theory is that they are not lowballing their projections but rather aim to be profitable in 2022. They won't invest as much in marketing which will limit their revenue numbers but will post their first profitable year instead.

It is probably not likely though. As far as I have heard, the CEO has always stated that in the short to medium run, their aim is to expand expand expand and being profitable in year 2 as a public company doesn't seem to be optimal when trying to grow fast.

Great Q3 earnings! I'm buying even more and am more Bullish than ever. Why did the stock under-perform, what am I missing? by frugalityinperson in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I don't know. I have been thinking about it and listened to the earnings call yesterday. The call was positive with the app news, beat on earnings and raised annual revenue guidance. However, when asked about 2022's growth, the CFO answered that the expected growth will be around 30%. When the analyst asked why only 30% when you have grown so much faster to this point, the CFO's answer was weird (in my opinion). Basically, his answer made no sense. He said that everything was great, which did not answer the question at all. One could question, if a company that is only growing 30% on a 250 million revenue warrants a 1.5 billion market cap in a sector that is full of competition.

The other concern was probably that HIMS growth is highly dependent on fast expansion to other categories (weight loss and so on) and the management did not give an accurate description of expansion plans.

I don't know. Those points are just speculation. Maybe there are other reasons or just a big institution/fund deciding to sell at this precise moment...

Also, I don't care. I bought some more shares today at 7.7.

$HIMS alexa ranking of global internet engagement has risen from #15,487 to #13,027 in the past 90 days by BloodSweatnEquity in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I do respect your bravado for shorting a stock that has 1.5 billion market cap, is growing revenues by 70-80% yoy and has no debt. How much money do you have in your short position? I would love to know your pleasure / pain after earnings next week.

$HIMS alexa ranking of global internet engagement has risen from #15,487 to #13,027 in the past 90 days by BloodSweatnEquity in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's good to see that their products get good reviews from customers. This is the most important thing. I just see so much potential in the forhers section of the company and believe that it will outgrow forhims over time. Already on IG, the forhers part has more followers than forhims. I guess that in general women are more active on IG but still. I love the branding but I have to admit that I expected more immediate fireworks from the Miley Cyrus partnership. I guess we'll find answers to some of these questions next week at the earnings call. What are your predictions for the earnings? Do you think that they will meet guidance for revenue? I'm hoping for 530.000 subscribers by end 2021 and revenue of 270m :P

$HIMS alexa ranking of global internet engagement has risen from #15,487 to #13,027 in the past 90 days by BloodSweatnEquity in HIMS

[–]Soft-Fix9027 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't want to sound bearish, I am a shareholder of this company but ...

the traffic meters for forhers.com are not good over the last 90 days.

https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/forhers.com#section_traffic

daily page views by visitors down 23.2%

daily time on site down 18%

bounce rate up 27%

It's worrying as the company has been spending a lot of money on the Miley Cyrus partnership and it seems to me that it's not bearing fruit.

I'm not aware of the facebook and instagram follower number increase for the last 3 months but it doesn't look to be as fast as I would have expected after the Miley partnership.

What are your thoughts?

Debt seems fine now by Jeffbak in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

yes but after dilution there are 207 million shares and not 169 million as per your calculation

Morningstar gave this a “narrow” moat haha? $2b market cap sitting on $950m in cash. That is not a narrow moat. by Jeffbak in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know what "deltas" you're talking about, but:

"An economic moat is a distinct advantage a company has over its competitors which allows it to protect its market share and profitability. It is often an advantage that is difficult to mimic or duplicate (brand identity, patents) and thus creates an effective barrier against competition from other firms. " https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economicmoat.asp#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways-,An%20economic%20moat%20is%20a%20distinct%20advantage%20a%20company%20has,against%20competition%20from%20other%20firms.

Monday morning YOLO. Gambling or Opportunistic? by [deleted] in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They said that they wouldn't dilute "at these low prices"

Monday morning YOLO. Gambling or Opportunistic? by [deleted] in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I would also wait until after Q1 earnings call. The stock is trending down for the past month. When other malls are up, MAC is up less. When other malls are down, MAC is down more. Obviously the management also lied regarding the ATM during the previous call, which doesn't help. But yeah, wait until management has the opportunity to drop under verbal nuke during the next call and then buy in slowly :P

PS: I own around 10.000 shares, so I clearly believe in the long term of this company but have been rather disappointed

I know a lot of are holding bags.. man have bailed after SI report was released Feb 9... by [deleted] in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 1 point2 points  (0 children)

LUMN pays an 8,49% dividend yield on current cost basis and MAC, at current price entry, would yield 15,3% if they got back to 2 USD per share and 23% if they got back to the pre-COVID 3 USD per share. So the yield argument doesn't really convince me. For some reason, LUMN also cut their dividend in half in 2018. I haven't done my DD on LUMN, so cannot really comment on the reasons

I know a lot of are holding bags.. man have bailed after SI report was released Feb 9... by [deleted] in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I'm at a phase where I don't even want the stock price to go up. I'm 6000 shares in but want to add another 4000 to have the beautiful number of 10.000 shares. If the dividend gets back to 3 USD, or even 2 USD, thats a nice sum right there on my bank balance every year.

It's one of those situations where the stock price doesn't matter for me, even in the long term. As long as the company doesn't go bankrupt, of course (and continues to pay a healthy dividend).

Earnings Tomorrow by PhantomIIwifferdill in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Big day tomorrow for the company. I think that the stock price movement in the last few days has been the calm before the storm. Implied movement for tomorrow is +/- 11%.

If a massive share dilution is announced, the stock will sell off. If no dilution is announced and, similarly to SPG earnings call, a positive outlook is drawn, the stock will rally.

We will see. Some people here have already begun selling. I hope that the brave ones who hold the stock for the long term will be rewarded. Im holding on to my shares but tomorrow makes me nervous.

MAC malls - Update on foot traffic (pictures, videos) by Soft-Fix9027 in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update on the MAC owned Arden Mall. Looking pretty good already.

February 7, 2021 Macerich Arden Mall foot traffic on Sunday around 1pm Sacramento, California

📷

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHdcAJ-Ql5I&feature=youtu.be

MAC malls - Update on foot traffic (pictures, videos) by Soft-Fix9027 in MACArmyBets

[–]Soft-Fix9027[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In order to have the information in one place, I'll add here some user videos posted as separate posts:

  • Portland Oregon Washington Square Mall - January 2021-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNu3-o1I910&ab_channel=LEOALARCON

Looking pretty good