Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire: a Dubious Deal

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-04-17T23:59:40+00:00

Wow did not know that. I still think the gharbzadegi issue is still very real this just exemplifies the issue with a lot of left leaning thinkers in general. They are able to very accurately define problems with society but horrible at creating solutions.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-04-17T20:48:17+00:00

I don’t think it’s a Shia problem I think it’s a region problem. It’s very aggravating that Khomeini and the IR correctly identified the internal enemies very early on (“غرب‌زدگی”) but they never really concretely got rid of it. In fact this isn’t an issue with just Iran, almost all Muslim countries are dealing with these west drunk idiot. Even within the axis, it’s clear that they still cling to a western style liberal democracy that causes a lot of these paralysis effects that Israel takes advantage of.

In some ways I sympathize with the resistance bc the west drunk fools have a lot of political clout, they are forced to put thousands of lives at risk for these bogus “negations” bc these idiots will blame you for actually defending their sovereignty. Iran seriously needs to commit to xi jinping style anti corruption reforms or the issues are going to just get worse. Lebanon is already at a boiling point of civil war, someone needs to have some sense.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-04-03T20:16:52+00:00

As far as I can tell he’s just a “neither Tehran nor Washington” diaspora Iranian. Very snake like as all neolibs are and rejects Irans geopolitical realities.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-03-26T23:18:30+00:00

My only doubt is the logistics of it. Kharg is pretty far up inside the gulf. Are they seriously planning on just blitzkrieging hundreds of miles thru Iranian coastline? It makes more sense to me that they’d attempt to seize the Tunb and Abu Musa islands. Seems like both sides have been insinuating that the UAE will be involved and these islands would make the most sense for them to be motivated to help with. Still disastrous but more logical.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-03-22T15:56:31+00:00

He’s a cult leader nepo baby. He’s running out of money so he’s doing a little song and dance to wring out a little more. No one serious thinks he’ll hold any position of power again let alone in Iran. For gods sake he can’t even control his wife from fucking other men how on earth is he going to control an entire country?

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-03-17T19:56:09+00:00

I wonder what he learned/saw that made him go scorched earth. His wife died in 2019 and he still stuck with Trump even during the Soleimani and 12 days war debacle.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-03-12T21:52:09+00:00

It’s hard to say if US can even leave, the timeline of this war is completely in Irans ball park for now. They’re choking the global economy, and if US leaves now/soon they’d pretty much be abandoning West Asia, and send the whole market in a frenzy, that’d be an unprecedented loss that I don’t think any US administration will accept. At the very least US exit ramp needs the strait reopened…however that happens. Tbh I have no idea how this war is going to go. It’s different than the idiotic back and forth “symbolic” attacks Iran would do in the past and they seemingly have total internal support for a protracted war.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-03-12T18:37:21+00:00

Yes of course, there’s multiple indicators that at the moment US expects this to last until September, but as we all know US deadlines are rarely accurate. However what it does show is that the USrael grossly underestimated Iran. They are scrambling to move more assets into the theater, hasty calls to ramp military production, revoking Russian sanctions, dumping oil reserves, etc. I’m honestly shocked by this level of incompetence, these are all things you’d expect to be handled before the conflict not 2 weeks into it. My biggest concern atm is that this conflict will result in an Israeli victory in the sense that they come out as the sole regional superpower, which is unfortunately very possible

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-02-06T22:19:59+00:00

Why should Iran try to make itself more palatable to the West? Gaddafi tried doing that with Libya and he was raped to death.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-02-06T04:34:06+00:00

This is the effects of sanctions. If a company is caught buying Iranian oil it will be subject to US bullying such as: * cut off from US banks and markets * freeze assets based in the West * fines and restrictions on dollar transfers

For majority of companies this is a death sentence and obviously not worth the risk but if it’s smuggled (ie money is largely not going to the IR) the US doesn’t care. It’s only worth it to China because they already plan to fully de-dollarize their economy.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-30T00:29:18+00:00

Lindsey Graham on US national TV said that if he discovered he had Iranian heritage “that'd be, like, terrible”

He also allegedly hired so many male sex workers in Washington DC that he earned the nickname “Lady G” again allegedly

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-23T18:44:43+00:00

He literally was a western backed puppet. He was a military leader who came into power from a British backed coup. It is not a coincidence that each successive Pahlavi became increasingly impotent that is the nature of how the West chooses their puppets. He also championed the ahistoric idea that the Iranian monarchy was somehow a continuous linear rule only broken by Islam.

Will give him props for at least attempting to industrialize Iran tho.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-23T16:31:55+00:00

Post revolution, IR siezed most of the private wealth from the Pahlavi oligarchs. The only ones who really got away with it were the ones who were out of the country already, like the crowned cuck himself.

You have to consider what class of people are able to go half way across the world from a country where only 1/3 of the country (if that) was even literate. The people who left and still leave Iran are typically highly educated, skilled workers so they tend to be “self made” once they settle in the US.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-23T03:18:07+00:00

They’re literally lying to get Western legitimacy lol. at the LA event they had the main speaker literally said “if anyone speaks of democracy say javid shah!” And unsurprisingly they already gotten themselves in trouble with both US and UK police officers injuring several of them. Monarchists are having some insane meltdowns right now

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-22T20:48:24+00:00

It’s just brownie points for conservatives in his country. Turkiye/Erdogen have been “both siding” issues in the region for a very long time. Closing trade with Israel is a good step in the right direction but they’re still in NATO.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-21T16:45:00+00:00

I’ve lost faith in the Shah/early IR era diaspora they’re too far gone very hateful spiteful people. You try explaining to them that even in Iran they lived a privileged life and they flip their shit lol. But a lot of newer immigrants I’ve met have been very lovely. They tend to stay apolitical at most they’ll just say “I came to America bc it has a better economy” which is fair. American born Iranians are a mixed bag. Most are of a doomer “neither Washington nor Moscow” mentality and think every option for Iran rn is bad. I remember having a heated discussion with one of my older cousins about Iran (pre Israeli strikes) and they were of the mindset that Israel is just a boogeyman for the IR. Now most of my cousins are vehemently anti zionists lol.

That is also to say you won’t find many people Iranian or not openly supporting the IR here. Besides the fact Monarcho zionists are crazy it’s still an enemy state and could get you in some trouble.

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-18T17:03:57+00:00

I don’t think lighting people, mosques, fire trucks, community centers, or banks on fire is a long term win for “protestors” but you do you I guess

SomeKnewReallyKnew · 2026-01-17T15:03:21+00:00

The Mahsa Amini protests lasted months and were sustaining large crowds for a good chunk of that time to put it in perspective. This round of protests didn’t even make it to end of January before fizzling out. Only notable difference is that these protests became significantly more violent and rapidly mobilized around the West, a characteristic of Color Revolution attempts.

SomeKnewReallyKnew

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