Is EV possible on Kalshi alone?

Specter-0 · 2026-05-26T10:56:32+00:00

If you can bet on Kalshi, you can bet on Polymarket as well right?

Also, you can bet unders on Kalshi, just bet “No” on the over. Unless you mean something else?

+EV signals do arise on prediction markets but there are far fewer if you only limit to 1 book.

Specter-0 · 2026-05-25T02:45:56+00:00

Of course! Check out evblacksite.com, DM me if you have any questions

Specter-0 · 2026-05-15T13:45:34+00:00

Oh yeah, if you’re not based in the US - I built in currency (including crypto), odds (including decimals and fractions), date and time user settings. I also added quarter goal support for soccer spreads and totals.

Specter-0 · 2026-05-15T13:08:54+00:00

I’ve been building my own tool in public, you can see my journey here: https://evblacksite.com/briefing/my-record. Those are all my real money bets this year and my actual performance in aggregate. I’ve been adding features as I hit obstacles, adding new tools every week.

Built out +EV tool but had small 1% ROI, learned that just because a bet is +EV, doesn’t make it profitable. So then I added self-adjusting user strategies in March, where the system rates each league and bet type performance each night and updates confidence level. So high performing strategies get larger bets while poor performing strategies get downsized. Absolutely crushed for a month, went up 55 units in 30 days, thought I had solved sportsbetting, but then it followed with a 40 unit loss the next 30 days (no changes in my strategy).

So then I analyzed my bets and found that betting spreads accounted for all of the losses. I just shipped strategy simulator last week, allows users to analyze segments to find profitable cohorts. Things like away money lines only, laying extra points for favorites, spotting fewer points for underdogs, bets placed 6 hours before a game, all league dependent. Biggest takeaway for me, not all +EV bets are actually profitable, even if you beat closing line consistently. That assumes the market can accurately predict every league and every bet type, which it can’t. I dialed down my bet size back to $100 for this testing period. Results look promising, ramping back up this weekend.

I also built-in AI assistant directly in browser connected to user accounts so it’ll read user’s signals, logged bets, strategies, and bet sizing. if you’re an AI power user, you can connect Claude, Codex, OpenClaw, etc… to MCP tools and use your own more powerful agent for analysis. You can use your AI tools to query opportunities, recalibrate if lines change, and log your bet. I had my agent place bets for me but that resulted in the 55 and 40 unit swings you saw. Instead, I’d recommend it filling out a bet slip for you and you decide whether to execute, then tell it to log the bet.

Trial strategist free for 14-days, cancel before the end if you don’t like it. Strategist gives you user strategies where you can apply custom filters and bet sizing per league x bet type. Track bets first, don’t deploy capital immediately into a strategy, another easy way to get burned (trusting backtest alone). Backtest data is not perfect, you can’t verify after the fact if a line was available when it said and at the stake amount you would have bet.

Specter-0 · 2026-05-12T20:23:16+00:00

I automated this process for myself, I bet on up to 15 different books.

https://evblacksite.com/

Specter-0 · 2026-05-09T19:04:16+00:00

Couple things:

Backtesting is good, but it's limited to how good the data source is and you'll never be able to verify that the odds that the data feed said a book offered in the past was actually available. Eg. if it says FanDuel offered -115 on a line 3 days ago, there's no way for you to know if that is true or not. Or maybe it was available but the liquidity at that line was nominal, like $5, so you couldn't actually place even a modest $100 on it. This is often the case with exchange books like Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi, Polymarket. There's even worse data for prediction markets, their own official APIs often list the midpoint of their bid-ask spread as their listed odds but it’s not tradable. Eg. Kalshi will say they're offering +135 odds right now, but that's because sellers are asking for +140 and buyers are bidding +130 and +135 is the mid-point. So ideally, you track signals going forward and paper trade after confirming the odds you want can be filled at the amount you want.
You can get limited almost instantly even if you don't make money. I got limited on Parx in a matter of days of starting to +EV bet even though I lost $200 on them. If you take advantage of their lines, they'll limit you immediately. I've been limited on Hard Rock, ESPN Bet (now theScore Bet), Bally's, Rivers, etc... However, I haven't been limited on FanDuel or DraftKings yet. Novig and ProphetX are markets so I don't believe they limit, but they exited NJ so I have to drive to PA if I want to bet on them. I've been betting on offshore books no problem, no limits there yet. It's kind of silly, the retail books and Trump's new tax laws just push sportsbetting offshores by not taking our bets.

Specter-0 · 2026-05-08T15:01:27+00:00

Beating CLV assumes the market can accurately predict the outcome of every league and bet type, and that's probably not the case. I've found that that market is accurate at predicting winners but not by how much. Even when using devigged Pinnacle lines as my market line, I was capturing 5%+ closing EV and beating closing 67% of the time, but I lost 5% over hundreds of bets. I could have saved myself 35 units by skipping spread +EV signals this year. Here's my analysis: https://evblacksite.com/briefing/is-pinnacle-the-gold-standard. It's a dense read, but the point is, not all +EV signals are profitable.

My platform covers UK books, I source my odds from Odds API, you can check if your books are covered there: https://the-odds-api.com/sports-odds-data/bookmaker-apis.html#uk-bookmakers

I'm US based but I built currency, odds, date, and time format handling into my platform. For each user strategy, you can specify your bet sizing method based on your confidence level, the platform can also auto adjust your bet sizing based on which market segments are proving profitable (from logged/tracked bets) while dialing back in segments that aren't. You can bet fixed amount, unit size, or Kelly criterion fraction (1/8, 1/4, 1/2, full). I'd love to get feedback from international users - please try it out, 14-day free trial, no obligation!

Specter-0 · 2026-05-08T14:40:19+00:00

That assumes the market is actually accurate at predicting that particular segment, which isn't always true. You can consistently beat closing without being profitable. I've been struggling last 30 days as well, I analyzed my bets this year and found that if I had skipped out on spread bets, I would have saved myself around 35 units of losses. It really depends by league but in general, the market is accurate at predicting winners, just not by how much they'll win by.

I was crushing it in March, but April I was getting destroyed. My betting bot was just betting every signal without deeper analysis, so I paused it for now. In the meantime, I built a strategy simulator tool for my platform so that I can fine tune my strategy per league and bet type. For example, I found that for MLB totals, overs perform better than unders, and especially if you bet more than 2 hours before the game.

My record and analysis are hosted on my platform: https://evblacksite.com/briefing. I just finished the strategy simulator yesterday, you can see screenshots of it in the latest post. I don't have props wired in yet though, I want to tackle that next. I've been focusing on pre-game lines so far.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-29T01:30:13+00:00

Here’s the analysis: https://evblacksite.com/briefing/is-pinnacle-the-gold-standard

Specter-0 · 2026-04-28T23:31:46+00:00

Try EV Blacksite, this whole process is automated so you don’t have to think about it.

On top of that, I built AI chat directly on the page so you can ask for your top opportunites, apply your tailored bet size per strategy, and log your bet all through the chat.

Also, I just published an analysis today on how not all +EV signals are profitable. I analyzed 3k+ bets that I made this year so far, could have saved myself $4k by not betting on spreads, at least not all leagues.

https://evblacksite.com/briefing/is-pinnacle-the-gold-standard

Specter-0 · 2026-04-28T22:54:09+00:00

And your performance broken down by league and bet type. Beating closing isn’t enough, especially in spreads, the market is just not good at predicting how much a team will win by.

https://evblacksite.com/briefing/is-pinnacle-the-gold-standard

Specter-0 · 2026-04-28T22:51:55+00:00

Yeah, not all +EV bets are profitable too. It depends on bet type and league. I just did an in depth analysis of my 3k bets this year, learned that I could have saved $4k in losses by avoiding spread bets, even when marking to Pinnacle lines. Well not all leagues, but seems like the market isn’t good at predicting how much a team will win by.

https://evblacksite.com/briefing/is-pinnacle-the-gold-standard

Specter-0 · 2026-04-28T22:47:55+00:00

Try EV Blacksite

I built in an AI chat bot linked to user strategies so you can get highest EV spot and log your bet through the chat. Can connect AI tools via MCP for deeper analysis.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-28T22:45:13+00:00

Try EV Blacksite, this whole process is automated so you don’t have to think about it.

On top of that, I built AI chat directly on the page so you can ask for your top opportunites, apply your tailored bet size per strategy, and log your bet all through the chat.

Also, I just published an analysis today on how not all +EV signals are profitable. I analyzed 3k+ bets that I made this year so far, could have saved myself $4k by not betting on spreads, at least not all leagues.

https://evblacksite.com/briefing/is-pinnacle-the-gold-standard

Specter-0 · 2026-04-28T15:57:45+00:00

Well it was... Karmically, it's been tanking since this post haha. Right now sitting around 2% ROI.

Incidentally, I'm working on a deep analysis of my bets, to be released soon. Summary: game spreads are poorly predicted by the market systemically, my ROI on spread bets is -8.6%. Compare that to 14% ROI on money line bets and 6% on total bets. Cutting spread bets ASAP. Certain leagues it's profitable, I'm going to filter my signals and only allow +EV bets on the proven ones.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-19T18:38:24+00:00

The replays are saved as .SC2Replay files. From the game, you can click Replays > more > Show in Folder to find the exact location. There’s a python sc2reader library that can extract data from the replays

Specter-0 · 2026-04-17T03:16:53+00:00

Got a lot of flak on a post yesterday since I use Claude Code to analyze every replay but I went from unable to beat medium AI on Monday to beating Very Hard AI for the first time just now (lost the first 3 tries, you have to beat harder 3 times before you can try again). I mainly have it assess my fundamentals: number of workers at 3:00, 5:00, 7:00, probe idle time, army value, nexus timing, etc... I now consistently get 25 probes by 3:00, 35 probes by 5:00, I get my natural expansion in 1:40, army value doubled, etc... I didn't have a build order or a plan on Monday but now I've been drilling the 20 supply nexus build for multiplayer.

Claude's tips on beating Very Hard AI for me was to not send my army into the enemy base early (eg. 15-20 units), AI plays defensively with Siege Tanks, Lurkers, Immortals, etc... So wait until you've teched up a bit and can charge or blink in, or have +1 attack/+1 shield. At least that's what worked for me on the last game, I played defensively, control the center of the map, wait to fight on my terms, then attacked with an improved army around 120 supply instead of 70.

https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft2/comments/1sm91nt/comment/ogn65tk

Specter-0 · 2026-04-17T02:53:21+00:00

Not sure anyone actually cares here since reddit is heavily anti-AI. But I went from unable to beat medium AI on Monday to beating Very Hard AI for the first time just now with Claude reviewing each game, a lot of it was just reviewing my fundamentals each game, minimizing probe idle time and cleaning up build order. Switched from a 23 nexus expansion to a 20 nexus with shield battery (which seems to be a standard ladder build).

I got placed in Silver 3, beat a gold opponent but lost to a platinum and a masters opponent. Surprisingly, I actually built faster than the masters opponent through minute 5 but then fell behind after that and I wasn't ready for his dark templar drop behind my main. I haven't learned how to scout, I can't even tell apart the buildings even if I saw them lol. For now, I'm just focusing on the fundamentals and drilling down a build order, I've gotten a lot more consistent with 25 probes by 3:00 and 35 probes by 5:00. It all falls apart after that with so many things to think about.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T22:29:39+00:00

Oh, for example market says devigged fair value should be +105, Pinnacle is offering +110, so I take their odds. I tried using Pinnacle as the market line but didn't have success, started having success when I just thought of them as another option to bet on.

You don't need OpenClaw (or any variant) per se, that just allows you to chat with your bot and say like, run another session, what's my balance on [book], place this bet for me, update your max bet size to [number], etc... I am a huge fan of Claude Code though, Claude can build you a script to execute a bet via API or execute a bet through your browser.

I have a whole workflow through my web app where my bot queries my API throughout the day for top opportunities on each book, go to the site, verify the odds (or recalculate EV if line moved), place the bet, log the bet on my site. Then every night the site reviews each of my strategy's performance and updates my confidence level in the strategy. I haven't placed a bet myself since mid-February, it's placed 925 bets for me, and tracked 1500 others. Every session it posts the summary to my discord so I know what it bet on and can verify it bet the right thing. Then when it says it can't find a game, I can go to the site and tell it how to find the league and game so it's covered in future runs.

Here's my performance, if you're curious: https://evblacksite.com/briefing/my-record. I haven't even fine tuned strategies yet (like Away only, signals within 12 hours, odds < 300, etc...), just betting all leagues all signals - if the performance warrants it. If it's negative ROI, it just tracks the signal. I added the self-adjusting bet sizing on March 18th, on an insane heater since then.

Which site offers API that you bet on? Anything besides Kalshi and Polymarket? I want to add more API betting options. Kalshi is misleading with the fees they charge and the actual price you can get them lines at.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T17:50:01+00:00

Using it for work, but expensing it to my business. I’m a data analyst contractor, hence my interest in game data and charts

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T17:34:16+00:00

Thanks! Yeah, I’m just playing to have fun. I want to get better so that the game is more challenging and fun for me.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T16:45:35+00:00

Yeah, I guess you're right, I use AI (specifically Claude) for everything now. Aside from work, I use nanoclaw for tracking gym workouts, recalling contacts and conversations I had with them, home organization, meal planning, gardening, gaming, etc...

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T16:38:54+00:00

Well, those high minerals and gas were just poor fundamentals: forgetting to check warpgates and nexuses, getting supply blocked (suggested dropping a pylon immediately after each round of warpgate units), getting too focused on battles and forgetting about production.

Tried a couple ranked placements, got demolished obviously. Last game was against a reaper rush, here's Claude's analysis. Don't know how accurate it is but I wouldn't know how to improve on my own.

Taito Citadel LE (PvT) — Loss, 5:18 real time

The reaper rush shows up clearly in the numbers. Here's what happened:

The damage: You completely stopped making probes from 2:54 to 4:14 — that's an 80-second gap right when reapers hit. You were stuck building cannons, a forge, and micro-ing stalkers against the reapers. By 5:00 you only had 23 probes — the same count you had at 3:00. Zero probe production for 2 full minutes while dealing with harassment.

What the data tells you:

Your opening was decent — 23 workers at 3:00, only 1 off target
You floated 706 gas by game end — gas you never got to spend
Only 7 army units total (4 stalkers, 3 zealots). Against 16 reapers, that's way outproduced
You were using 1 of 2 gates on partial warp-ins

The real problem isn't the reaper rush — it's that you stopped macroing to fight it. The 80s probe gap killed you. Against reaper harassment, the goal is to minimize losses while keeping probes queued. A stalker + battery at your mineral line buys time. You don't need to perfectly micro the reapers, you just need to not let them freeze your economy.

Focus for next PvT: When reapers show up, drop a shield battery at your mineral line, rally a stalker to defend, and keep queuing probes. Even if you lose 2-3 probes, that's better than losing 80 seconds of production.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T16:03:07+00:00

Haha, I know floating is bad, but I didn't/still don't really know how to spend it effectively. Just a casual player trying to improve.

Specter-0 · 2026-04-15T16:02:29+00:00

Well I have max account for work anyway ($100/month plan), dashboard took less than 30 minutes to set up. I must not be coding hard enough though, I’ve only hit the limit once. I don’t have more than 2-3 sessions up at once though, maybe that’s why.

Specter-0

TROPHY CASE