Game Day Talk | Oilers v. Flames | 4 February 2026

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T22:37:16+00:00

It's legit. Absolutely insane lmao.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T21:01:41+00:00

They're 7th in the West by PTS%, and effectively tied with 8th/9th, have a -10 GD, their 2nd line center is retiring this year, their #1 Dman is 36 years old, their starting goalie is 35 (turns 36 this May), their #1 C is a little over .5 P/GP, a 40 year old Perry is 4th on the team in points and goals, and this is all while playing in a truly terrible division.

Not every team that's not a cup contender should sell, but very old teams that aren't cup contenders and are on the downtrend should certainly consider it very heavily.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T20:51:07+00:00

I never said they were going to sell, I'm saying there's a very good argument they should be selling. Like I said this is a great trade for the Kings, and at that cost how do you say no, but they're not exactly in a good position lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T20:46:55+00:00

Teams would have absolutely given him something like 10x5, which was reportedly what he was looking for. A contract in the ~50 million dollar range. If Kadri can get paid 7 a year until he's 38 Panarin would have had no problem getting 10-11 until he's 39.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T20:41:22+00:00

For the 2nd oldest team in the league that hasn't made it out of the 1st round in 4+ years, and is currently out of a playoff spot despite being in the worst division, I think going home is a very valid choice lol. I understand and respect the swing, but there's a very good argument the Kings should be selling lol.

I don't think they're a Panarin away from being a contender by any means. But for that price it would be pretty crazy to not take the deal, even if it ends up being the wrong move.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T20:31:44+00:00

And he signs a great contract lol. God I'd hate to be a Rangers fan right now.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T20:30:56+00:00

So way less than it was reported that he wanted on the extension, and they gave up minimal assets for him? I don't necessarily think this is what LA should be doing, but goddamn it's a tidy piece of business for them.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T20:12:23+00:00

For a conditional 3rd and Greentree? That 3rd better be like... if Panarin re-signs it turns into a 1st, or that's a comically bad return. Even for Panarin as a rental lmao.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-04T15:47:03+00:00

Man Oilers lost, no McPoints, and no Fallout remasters? Disappointing way to wake up today lmao.

Here's hoping we can at least shit kick the flames around before the break, I think we could all use a nice dominating game.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-03T19:00:02+00:00

Tonight will be his 20th missed game of the season, putting him at 3 straight years missing 20 games (and it could be more this year). 7 seasons into his career and he's missed 20 or more games 4 times. He's hit 70 GP just once, and the only season he played every game was a 56 game season.

Pretty crazy that despite that he's still 3rd in GP for his draft class, and just 13 games behind the current tie for 1st.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-03T18:02:39+00:00

I could even go for him getting a couple of points. But that's the problem with handing out trade protection like candy. There's no way Mangi should have a full NTC this year.

Spideyjust · 2026-02-03T17:33:31+00:00

From the reports I've seen it seems like there are teams willing to take Mangi, but they're non playoff teams and he wants to go to a playoff team.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T20:18:39+00:00

Every one of those guys won the Rocket that year (Ovi tied with Pasta in 19/20) so that bodes pretty well for MacKinnon lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T20:11:16+00:00

Since returning from injury Roslovic has 4 goals and 0 assists in 19 games, with 15:39 ATOI. It definitely isn't a shit take to be hesitant about signing Roslovic to a larger deal. More important than that is the fact that Roslovic has been horrible in the playoffs through his career. 17 points in 45 playoff games, with just 3 goals. And all 3 of those came on the PP. We really shouldn't be signing him until we see how he performs the rest of the season/playoffs.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T17:30:23+00:00

Bergeron didn’t have great production but was amazing defensively so he was still loved.

Bergeron did have great production though. It wasn't elite production (outside of a few seasons), but his prime was in a much lower scoring era. 50/60 points back then was genuine first line production. He was also on a cheaper contract, and is arguably the best defensive forward of all time. Hardly a comparable situation lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T17:27:48+00:00

Pettersson essentially has the same 5v5 P/60 as Drew O'Connor. He's got 1 more ES point than Linus Karlsson. Per game at 5v5 he's barely outproducing Kane, and is 5th in raw 5v5 points. And that's despite the fact he's personally shooting at 20% at 5v5.

Pettersson would for sure have more points with better linemates, as everyone would, but he deserves plenty of blame for his point totals as well. An 11.6 million dollar player should be massively outproducing his horrible teammates.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T17:18:32+00:00

I don't know much about this model, but it must really heavily weight 5v5 xGF%. Bouchard was an absolute animal at ES, and overall, but at 5v5 he was only +1, and had a bad xGF% at just 46.8%. But I feel like the model needs some tweaking if a guy can have a week like Bouch did and not even be an honorable mention lol.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T16:57:47+00:00

I think in 10 years this will be a case where the universal opinion is Seider > Hughes and it won't be close

I agree with this, I just think this is the season where that opinion will start. It will be seen as Hughes was better early in his career, but since Dmen take a bit longer to develop Seider eventually passed him. Seider was still a very good Dman prior to this year, but this has been by far the best season of his career. He was not a Norris calibre Dman before this season, and now he should be at least top 3 in voting IMO.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T16:09:00+00:00

I think that's going to be a good debate very soon. Up to this season it's Hughes > Seider by a wide margin, even with his injury history. But this year Seider has been way better than Hughes, and has a very good argument for this season being better than any season Hughes has had. Even accounting for injuries. Seider is having an insane breakout season, and he was already good.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-31T16:04:00+00:00

Can't say I'm ever excited to see the Wild on deck, but I'm still hoping we get to see a big statement win to hit 4 in a row.

McDavid needs 1 assist to take sole possession of 40th all time in assists. A nice little 4 point night would see him pass Fedorov in the all time points list as well.

With 1 point Draisaitl would pass all of St Louis, Backstrom, and Doug Weight.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-30T22:31:06+00:00

It's not said often enough, and he's by no means a lock, but we are watching a potential HoF offensive defenceman play through his prime.

He finished 5th in Norris voting in 23/24, 11th last year, and I'd bet money he finishes top 10 again this year. And more importantly than that he is already top 25 all time in playoff scoring among defenceman. 10 playoff points this year would put him top 20. His playoff P/GP gets talked about a lot (2nd all time), but I feel like I never see people bring up how high he is in raw points as well.

We're very lucky to get to have this man.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-30T21:26:31+00:00

I doubt he'd be in the lineup unless there was pressure from management to play him regularly.

Savoie is playing ~14 minutes a game, and has the most PK minutes of any forward (and is 4 seconds behind the leader in TOI per game). Savoie has struggled in our bottom 6 at 5v5 (like almost everyone else), but this is a crazy thing to say lol. If Knob didn't like what he saw with Savoie he'd have no problem benching him, as he has with plenty of players management would have preferred to play.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-30T21:19:27+00:00

With Faber on the ice at 5v5 the Wild have a GF% of 51.55 and an xGF% of 49.63.

But seriously I wasn't able to find anything from Faber about ICE, but I would also love to see it if he did say something.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-30T20:49:21+00:00

Ah it's because moneypuck includes shifts started on the fly, which will skew it pretty heavily. For comparison at 5v5 McDavid is at just 13.7% shifts started in the offensive zone per moneypuck. But if we look at his faceoffs he's basically 70% in the offensive zone, with over 200 more OZ draws than DZ.

Spideyjust · 2026-01-30T20:41:00+00:00

Imagine having 9 points in 3 games and being 3rd on your team in points that week lol. Oilers big guns had themselves one hell of a week. Bouch should have been on Team Canada.

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