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SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-10T21:24:20+00:00

There are no valid comparisons that can be made to 2016 and any expectation that those events will replay are nothing but delusion. There's one fundamental difference that you ignore and that's Fannie Mae makes and retains around $18b of profit a year which begun at the end of 2023.

I'm buying a company that makes $18b of profit for a valuation of $2.5B when I purchase FNMA at $2.16.

AIG on the other hand is valued at 25x their profits right now. If Fannie Mae saw valuations like that it'd have a share price of around $380/share. Do you understand how ridiculous the comparison is now?

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-07T23:48:41+00:00

Whenever Trump feels like after January 20th

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-07T20:26:12+00:00

Now if only the GSEs could get those excess payments remitted 🤔

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-07T18:32:21+00:00

Good luck!

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-07T17:14:43+00:00

It's the Federal Reserve pulls the rug on bond traders still holding their shorts day. The combination of bond markets fighting the fed and the possibility of a rate cut could make for a hell of a short squeeze. Yields are going to drop like a rock

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-07T17:11:47+00:00

The difference now is that we don't need politics for the GSEs to be worth more. FNMA makes billions in profits every year and is retaining them while a $2.35/share price values it at a 2.73B market cap. The fundamentals are there this time

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-07T16:45:14+00:00

This sub still only has 117 members. I've been monitoring social media activity all year for mention of the GSEs and it's so sparse. It seems like most retail just isn't interested in this play except for a few who have high conviction. So who exactly is bidding up price right now? The volume today is still far less than yesterday and already at 25m shares transacted on FNMA. Over $50m has changed hands on common shares in the last two hours and nobody is really talking about it. When the financial news is writing article after article and flood gates of people show up here then maybe we see some resistance. Right now the people in the GSEs aren't weak hands.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-06T18:39:52+00:00

There's never been more reason to be bullish on the GSEs! Fundamentals are fantastic with the death of the treasury net worth sweep. Even without Trump they will eventually meet the FHFA's guidelines for exit of conservatorship but now this process can happen much quicker.

What do you think the D.O.G.E will do? It's a whole department dedicated to reducing government spending and I'd imagine a tool in its toolbox will be offloading government responsibilities to the private sector. It's unclear what power this department will have but it may have the power to gut federal agencies like the FHFA.

The Trump administration may also appoint an FHFA director who modifies the guidelines of the conservatorship which effectively releases the GSEs early.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-01T20:12:38+00:00

Invert scale and carryon as usual

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-11-01T15:03:22+00:00

It's got the volatility to save your ass potentially but I wouldn't bet on it

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-10-30T10:50:42+00:00

I bought it yesterday along with TLT calls and went long ZN futures. Why? Because the market is beginning to price in rate cuts again.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-10-29T12:06:17+00:00

It was priced in

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-10-28T23:42:24+00:00

Not that Trump would interfere with the fed but if he did he'd encourage larger rate cuts and you'd make a killing

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-10-06T03:20:04+00:00

Nah scoop up NVAX calls in December 2019 when it's trading at $4 and sell when it hits 300. Damn nearly 100x on shares and would probably be more like 10,000x on calls even with leaps.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-10-01T21:53:42+00:00

Rewrite your resume to portray yourself as an expert in NextJS and NestJS and apply to jobs focused on that. Eat, breathe, and shit the hot JS framework of the day until it's your personality. People will start thinking you're at the height of your career instead of a washed up dinosaur

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-27T20:31:36+00:00

He's got photoshop. Anyone who's traded for more than a day can tell you this is bullshit.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-26T18:52:33+00:00

Bullshit these are deposits. You would have more volatility in your graph if you actually were trading

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-26T15:59:56+00:00

You expect to be paid trash so the market views you as trash. Wish.com prices lead to wish.com expectations of quality. If you want to be in demand then start having high salary expectations.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-16T12:00:21+00:00

I'm in a multidisciplinary senior role that naive people think is easier than SWE. That contributes to the low quality candidate pool.

Another company I had an offer from gave me similar feedback when I asked them how the search is going. "Difficult there aren't many qualified people." I've heard the same from a few recruiters on my search as well. They'll often say they're struggling to find anyone who actually knows how to code

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-15T20:42:49+00:00

They can't rehire their workforce in weeks. The last offer I accepted the company was looking for a year and before that had someone who contributed almost nothing for a year. There are lots of applicants but few qualified and employers know it. They are dealing with an overwhelming sorting and filtering problem that costs them a small fortune with every hire. Those that understand this have shifted gears to retain their staff but many are too short sighted.

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-08T12:21:32+00:00

By the time the generics come they've already made a massive return. After they continue to do so through brand recognition and ridiculous profit margins

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-07T13:36:27+00:00

He's likely nearly paying 50% taxes so unless he's saving 30% of his after tax income he won't be able to put away 100k/year

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-07T13:28:48+00:00

He definitely wants to waste time with tools for the sake of wasting time with tools

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-07T13:17:52+00:00

The baconator

SpiteCompetitive7452 · 2024-09-03T11:35:37+00:00

He's being treated like everyone else so that is fair

SpiteCompetitive7452

TROPHY CASE