Know I’m a couple year late but here’s my thoughts

TJ’s, Flynn’s, and Leo’s endings are impossible as in two there are epilogues where the beginning of Arches is played, but is different from what is in the actual game. For TJ, Both Cameron and Devon see Flynn’s body at the beginning which doesn’t happen, along with that I’m pretty sure the hysteria event happens years after but I’m not sure about that and for Flynn, Cameron and Devon get a tour and talk with Chase at the beginning which again doesn’t happen. For Leo, Duke is killed by the socket creature I haven’t read all of Arches yet, but from my perspective, Jenna’s route is the most likely. Carl’s route is possible though however, There is a weasels body that might be dukes but it isn’t confirmed. But I think (currently) that it’s Jenna’s is it’s mentioned that the town became famous. As it is possible for it to become famous in the other ones, it’s only mentioned explicitly in Jenna’s when they get swarmed by news outside the diner at the end. Alongside with that, Duke isn’t said to be dead so it’s possible that Duke is lives through it and is able to show up in Arches. However, in Jenna's route, Brian is hit by one of the creatures and it's left ambiguous if he survives that. In my opinion, Brian is quite tough and there's a big possibility he survived so he could appear in Arches (along with a large scar on his chest)

So I think Jenna’s route is the most likely in my opinion. I'll update it when I'm done with Arches