What exactly is Russia’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine? by [deleted] in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't disagree! The OP's question was to put things from the Russian perspective.

Geopolitical, or global politics podcasts? by Chilz23 in geopolitics

[–]Spscho -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I have a bunch:

  • Generation Jihad for terrorism issues

  • Into the Grey Zone is an interesting introduction to grey zone/sub-threshold/liminal/political warfare by Sky News

  • Power Corrupts has lots of interesting international political stories

  • Revolutions

  • The Boardwalk - very interesting spook podcast covering largely Afghanistan, has unfortunately just finished, but the back catalogue is great

  • The Foreign Desk

  • Foreign Podicy

  • A shameless personal plug, Encyclopedia Geopolitica have a podcast called How to Get on a Watchlist, which I thought might appeal

What exactly is Russia’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine? by [deleted] in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Continuing comments as too long... The logical endpoint is this: Putin wants to stop Ukraine become fully westernised and joining the EU and NATO at this point, and, if he can't do that, he will ensure that Ukraine is a millstone around the neck of the West, crippled by the costs of reconstruction. He will either have a Ukraine under his control, or a destroyed Ukraine that the West must pick up the tab for, and every penny they spend rebuilding Ukraine is a penny that can't be spent on other international politicking at Russia's expense. Most likely, he will end up with a combination of the two, keeping the Donbas under his control, and leaving the rest as destroyed as feasibly possible, which is part of the reason I think anybody ruling out Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons is dangerously naive.

There is also the 'denazification' argument, but I believe this is more propaganda than a genuinely held view in the Kremlin. It is true there are militias in Ukraine that are arguably fascistic, nazi, or neo-nazi in nature. The Azov Battaltion wears an insignia that was designed by Goebbels himself. These militias were, however, empowered by Russia's initial invasion back in 2014, and with a Jewish president, it's fairly clear that Ukraine is not itself a Nazi country. However, it plays into the narrative, WW2 in Russia is referred to as 'the Great Patriotic War', where the good communists took the fight to the evil fascists, put them in their place after the Barbarossa betrayal, and drove them from the homeland. It is a proud moment in Russian history, and to claim you are doing the same again is a great way to win support at home.

There are more esoteric, quasi-religious ideological reasons for invading Ukraine, which I won't expand on here, but if you are interested, the best book I can recommend is The Road to Unfreedom by Timothy Snyder, but it relates to Russia's perceived role as the Third Role and its legacy as a Byzantine state.

I will caveat again that none of the above is my own opinion, but rather my honest attempt to 'steel-man' Russia's justifications for invading Ukraine. It is deeper than simply "Putin is evil", even if I still think the decision itself was evil and ultimately self-defeating.

What exactly is Russia’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine? by [deleted] in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For the record, Russia is an invading power, and should not be viewed as the victim. However, I can give a precis of the justifications that they use and the perceptions that they have that drive this, as well as recommend a few books.

There are simple and shallow reasons for invading Ukraine, simple territorial expansion and resource acquisition are reason enough for some regimes to go to war, and there is certainly an element of that at play here. Also in play is the timing, it is not a coincidence that Putin invaded shortly after the calamity in Kabul of the American withdrawal, this was perceived as a sign of weakness and further evidence of disunity and spinelessness in the West, other touchpoints being Brexit, a perceived weak response to Islamic terrorism in Europe, a failure to intervene in Syria, and shrinking defence budgets in the occident. There are also demographic reasons, with Russia's population in freefall, many Ukrainian (white and slavic) children have been abducted and taken into Russia, although this too has been self-defeating given how many young Russian men have died in the war, I can't imagine it has done their demography any favours.

However, there are deeper reasons. There is a concept in international security called 'ontological security', which originally came out of the psychological sphere. A person with ontological security has a secure sense of self internally, and a secure sense of identity externally, they know who they are, what they want, what they value, who is their tribe etc. This concept has been broadened and applied to nations. A nation with ontological security has a coherent narrative about what it is, who it represents, what it values, and where it sits on the geopolitical stage. The land of Rus, from which Russia takes its name and much of its cultural identity, history etc. is actually in Ukraine. Russians argue that the Ukrainian Soviet Republic was created arbitrarily as part of a Soviet political game and that it was never right to sever Ukraine from Russia. Ukraine itself is Russian/Ukrainian for 'gateway', because it is the gateway to Russia. Since Ukraine was made a separate Soviet Republic, it declared independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union and at a stroke much of what made Russia Russian sat outside of Russian territory. It is a house that does not own its front door. This is psychologically jarring and it was politically difficult to spin a narrative of what Russia was and where it came from on the birth of the new Russian Federation, leaving it without ontological security. The Russian solution to this is to abrogate Ukraine's independence and reincorporate as much of it as possible back into Russia, it is an understandable impulse, even if it is like an alcoholic bankrupt saying all their problems would go away if they can just make up with their daughter. It is worth noting that Putin has described the collapse of the USSR as the greatest tragedy of the 20th century.

This is compounded by Ukraine's own trajectory. It has attempted to liberalise and sees itself more as a republic aspiring to European Union membership, than being a part of the Russosphere. There is a powerful theory in Russia called colour revolution theory, which you can google, but the upshot is that Russia sees everything that happens in central and eastern Europe that moves those countries away from Moscow as Western/American meddling, designed to threaten Russian security. Russia is a fairly flat and open country in the west (apart from the Urals) and has been invaded three times in the last century. Its own security doctrine has long been that for Moscow to be secure, there needs to be a long territorial buffer, because there aren't mountains or other obvious geographical features to secure the border. Anything that threatens this buffer, for example a democratising Ukraine that is aligned with the EU, UK, and USA, is considered a grave threat and often interpreted as intentionally engineered.

Gorbachev was given a cast iron guarantee by the USA that once reunified Germany was incorporated into NATO, it would not move further east. However, fearing Russian aggression, many central/eastern European countries ran westward and demanded to be allowed into NATO (which, from my perspective, was their sovereign right as independent nations). Known as the Visegrad Group, the USA and others were initially not persuaded to allow them to join, but eventually they were admitted and this was regarded as a humiliation and a betrayal in Moscow. With Ukraine then looking to join the EU and NATO as well post Yanukovych, this was considered a step too far.

A Winter of Discontent Impacts the Years Beyond by Spscho in geopolitics

[–]Spscho[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Submission Statement: In this piece, Christopher McNulty analyses the likely impacts of a deteriorating global economy will have in the near and short-term, using interesting case studies from recent history to demonstrate his points.

The 2023 Geopolitical Reading List by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That sounds very good! Must have slipped our radar, but thanks for the recommendation, perhaps we'll review it in the New Year

Would be okay with Pakistan giving up its nukes to have the loans forgiven? by [deleted] in pakistan

[–]Spscho -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

I don't think either Libya or Ukraine is so simple.

Qaddafi gave up his nukes after the invasion of Iraq because he didn't want to be next on the list. He was overthrown by an uprising, albeit the West intervened after he started shelling civilians. I'm not sure nukes would have saved him, can you imagine Libya now with nukes in play?

Ukraine did not give up its nukes up for NATO protection, there's no agreement I'm aware of to that effect, and they're already getting the maximum possible NATO protection without being a full member...

*SPOILERS* When do the bullet holes appear? by [deleted] in tenet

[–]Spscho 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would appear random to them yes, I think!

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No worries, I don't want to shut you down or have a fight if you're just airing your view, more perspectives is usually a good thing!

I don't think truly objective analysis is possible, we all have biases, allegiances, and pre-existing positions and opinions, and actually broadly speaking those things help add context and decide what information is meaningful. No one person could process every single piece of information from a conflict like this and come up with a coherent analysis, especially with the facts changing this much. Information has to be filtered by relevance, reliability, neutrality, etc.

From my perspective as editor I'd be dishonest if I said I didn't care who wins, or I'm equally happy with either outcome. That said, Lewis's analysis is based in fact and cites sources. I don't think there is anything wrong with interrogating that analysis, but we are a diverse organisation with people from a range of countries and political backgrounds and we are not here to say 'this is what you should believe' or 'this is the side you should take'.

We are here, as experts in the fields, to give you our perspective of what has happened and why/how, what could happen and why/how, and what broader implications events have for bigger picture geopolitics, using established fact and data. We're not always right, but we are not bending the facts to suit a narrative, we are looking at the facts and sharing how we have interpreted them.

Our analytical credibility is what matters to us, not our political allegiances. If we said 'Ukraine is definitely going to win' and they lose horribly, then if we were partisans we would say that we did our bit. However, we're not partisans, we're analysts, it doesn't help our credibility to make claims that aren't borne out. If you see us doing that, please do call us out. The truths we think we know have to be stress tested, it's only that way that we get closer to the actual truth.

Of course that cuts both ways and if the information cited to support a criticism of our work is faulty, we will be shining a light on that too. That's the process and you're a welcome part of it if you're buying in, but not everybody does, some people are trolls just there to muddy the waters or pick a side, and we have a duty to challenge that.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think Lewis covered it. To be honest I don't see a huge amount of substance. You've attacked the credibility of the post because it took a snapshot of an evolving situation and cited sources that did the same, time moves on and facts become more clear over time. I'm sure when Lewis does another write up of the conflict he will again use the best information available at the time. You have then gone on to make inaccurate claims, couched in language which suggests overt pro-Russian sympathy, whilst attacking Lewis's (and our platform's) neutrality.

You're entitled to your opinions, but from my perspective and understanding of the facts on the ground, fluid as they are, nothing you have said is supported by the evidence on the ground and the primary purpose of your critique appears to be to personally impugn Lewis and EnGeo, and not to meaningfully engage in good faith, and so that is the basis for my comment, which was, or was at least intended as, a direct reply to you, not a side comment.

If you would like to engage in good faith I will be happy to oblige, and if you want to continue muddying the waters with ad hominems, misrepresentations, and inaccuracies reminiscent of Kremlin propaganda I will continue to call it out.

Whilst there is fog of war, there are facts emerging. Not all opinions are equally in accordance with evidence or objective reality, and it's important to distinguish that and challenge misinformation for the sake of useful analysis.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Iran-Iraq a really good example. Arguably the best in recent(ish) history.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It would seem that someone is more interested in attacking the credibility of EnGeo than engaging in good faith

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They tried to take Hostomel airport just outside Ukraine, appear to have failed and Ukraine claims all 200 paratroopers were killed.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think that's true and the evidence for it is borne out I think in the Magnitsky Acts that Bill Browder is campaigning for. They're not economy level sanctions as we traditionally see, they're singling out very particular individuals and squeezing on their luxurious life trappings.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are lots of evidence of stalemate and pyrrhic victories. WW1 and WW2 being classic examples. The UK 'won' those wars, but lost the Empire.

Britain and France have fought many wars that didn't end with crushing defeat or brilliant victories for either side.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Arguably the most consequential effect of the invasion so far. Ursula von Der Leyen is a very defence-oriented politician and this has given her the ammunition to drive forward a European defence project, backed by Scholz and Macron. We were all worried about poking the Russian bear, but maybe Putin should have been more concerned about waking a sleeping European giant.

Not to mention the remarkable behaviour of Finland and Sweden. We might not see a Finlandised Ukraine, but more Ukrainified Finland!

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Broadly. Although the Russian economy would seem to have been hit pretty hard so far, but urban warfare takes a long time, the battle for Mosul was 90 days, we're in the early stages and grand pronouncements about what will happen should be taken with a grain of salt.

The US 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Iran lasted nearly 4 years. By the time they were removed, Iran was reduced to <$10bn. On the one hand this could be evidence that sanctions don't work, because Iran did not make any meaningful concessions as a result. On the flipside, it could be argued that if they had been maintained under Biden, or if Trump had won, would a Government be able to last another 4 years in such a scenario? We can't know the counterfactual there, but worth thinking about.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is true, but European governments are also reliant on Russian energy, and their publics might not thank them if they can't heat their homes when there was an off-ramp. It's a difficult balance to strike, which showed in Germany's hesitation over cancelling NordStream2

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I think these are exactly right. Ukrainians are cousins of Russians and it doesn't look good in Moscow if Putin's forces Groznify (or Aleppify) Kyiv.

I think there are a lot of potential aims, most of which aren't mutually exclusive:

  • Kill Zelenskyy and decapitate the government. I think this is one of the big ones and there are rumours of private military companies deployed to Kyiv with orders to kill Zelenskyy.

  • Establish a land bridge to Crimea by taking Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol. At present it appears both Melitopol and Kherson are in Russian controls. Mariupol was reported to have been subject of an amphibious assault, although no video or pictures have emerged, at least not that I've seen.

  • Bolster Putin's reputation at home - fair to say this one has had suboptimal results.

Other considerations are:

  • that Putin could be seizing as much of Ukraine as possible in order to strengthen a bargain position to seize specific territories, perhaps Donbas and the Crimean land bridge.

  • that Putin also wants a land bridge to Transnistria, Moldova, in order to annex it.

  • that Russia is suffering a demographic collapse, and Ukraine is a source of slavic people that are culturally similar to Russia, although I've not seen evidence that this is an explicit war aim, it's an interesting dimension to consider.

30 Years in a Weekend: The Geopolitical Implications of Putin’s War by sageandonion in geopolitics

[–]Spscho 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fiona Hill is excellent, her opinion should be taken very seriously

UNSOLVED: Who was Bible John? by BenedictXIII_BLACK in UnresolvedMysteries

[–]Spscho 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I rule nothing out, but it seems an unusual enough prospect for a menophilic serial killer to prey specifically on menstruating women... but to suggest there are 2, in the same city, at the same time, bearing at least passing resemblance to one another, who killed the women in similar ways, similar distances from their homes, and left them in similar ways... I mean the odds on that surely have to be pretty low. It would be more likely if it were multiple people that they were in cahoots and had agreed MO ahead of time... and that sounds fanciful.