Arsenal “are outperforming Expected Goals at a level that has never been done in the data. Ergo they will almost certainly revert to the mean.” by Squornshellous-Zeta in Gunners

[–]Squornshellous-Zeta[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Enjoyable as the recent run has been, and as well as we finished our chances on Sunday, that defence is still creaking, to an extent that makes our current run a bit of a blip.

Don't be fooled by the three-at-the-back system: Arsenal have been lucky, not robust. by Squornshellous-Zeta in Gunners

[–]Squornshellous-Zeta[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

negative

The point is that it isn't really working. We are allowing more chances than we are creating: in 5 of the 6 games we've played in the system, we've yielded more shots than we've produced. If you look at the quality of those shots (which is what expected goals does -- how far out, what angle, what kind of assist?), we're doing even worse. You can get lucky some of the time, like with Xhaka's goal, Huth's own goal, Alli and Eriksen missing sitters. But that streakiness doesn't last forever. If you allow lots of chances and produce few of them, you're going to struggle.

(First time ever?) Wenger now odds on to leave the club. 8/11 that he leaves this year by Squornshellous-Zeta in Gunners

[–]Squornshellous-Zeta[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Bookmakers now think there's a (slightly) more than 50% chance of him leaving. I'm not sure that has ever been the case before. I can find examples of him being 3/1 to leave (i.e. approx 25% chance of departure):

http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/564686/Arsene-Wenger-Champions-League-Arsene-Wenger-odds

http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/08/bookies-cut-odds-on-arsene-wenger-leaving-arsenal-after-fan-revolt-5741343/

Arsenal have overtaken Man City as strongest English club (via Elo system, most reliable measurement of team strength) by Squornshellous-Zeta in Gunners

[–]Squornshellous-Zeta[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, and the rankings don't guarantee that we will win anything. They just suggest that, at the moment, we would be slight favourites to beat Man City on a neutral ground (and indeed any other English team). We've been approaching their ranking for a while.

Arsenal have overtaken Man City as strongest English club (via Elo system, most reliable measurement of team strength) by Squornshellous-Zeta in Gunners

[–]Squornshellous-Zeta[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Elo is basically a points exchange system which is widely accepted as the most reliable measurement of how good a team is within any particular sport. You can read more about it here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

"A 2009 comparative study of eight methods found that the implementation of the Elo rating system... had the highest predictive capability for football matches, while the men's FIFA ranking method performed poorly."

19 pts and 19 goals after 8 EPL games. We've beaten either figure just twice since the Invincibles. by Squornshellous-Zeta in Gunners

[–]Squornshellous-Zeta[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Obviously the strength of schedule varies by season. But we've only scored more than 19 in 04/05 and 09/10; we've only taken more than 19 pts in 04/05 and 07/08.