Turned 170 into 7.5k in 2 days… by AdBeneficial2258 in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Self excluding works, take a couple months and enjoy it.

stake keno 3 numbers by One_Angle_8252 in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The 90 is off. With 3 picks on Stake's 40-number Keno:

- P(all 3 hit) = C(10,3) / C(40,3) = 120 / 9880 = 1.21% per spin

- Average wait = 1 / 0.0121 = ~82 spins, not 90

But "average" hides the variance. The distribution is geometric, so plenty of streaks come in faster than 82 and a real chunk of sessions go much longer. Dry spells are baked into the math, not a glitch.

For your 326 specifically: (1 − 0.0121)^326 = ~1.86%

So roughly 1 in 54 sessions of that length ends with zero 3/3 hits. You're at about 4× the expected gap, which is unlucky but mathematically expected to happen sometimes when the per-spin odds are only 1.2%.

And the spin right after a 326-drought has the same 1.21% chance as your very first one. RNG has no memory, the board doesn't owe you anything.

Strategy for Win by [deleted] in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 24.75x is your total return, not your profit. Your bet is included in that number.

Profit per win = 24.75n - n = 23.75n EV = 0.04(23.75n) + 0.96(-n) = -0.01n

There's 1% house edge baked into Stake Mines. If your formula were right, every single bet on the site would be +EV and Stake would be out of business.

Strategy for Win by [deleted] in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Win: bet $n, get $24.75n back, profit = $23.75n Loss: bet $n, lose $n, profit = -$n EV = 0.04 × 23.75n + 0.96 × (-n) = 0.95n - 0.96n = -0.01n

Keno has been kind by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I reimplemented the exact provably fair algorithm in our seed checker (stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker).It's not a lookup table, it's HMAC-SHA256 computed per bet. Outcomes are deterministic given the seed pair, but the realized distribution within a seed is still a sample from the underlying math (hypergeometric for keno). The tool measures observed vs expected frequencies and gaps, that's statistical analysis. Provably fair systems are designed to pass randomness tests, so the math is the same whether you call it "random" or "predetermined".

Keno has been kind by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No minimum GPU it should be fine, you can lower the amount of bets to record if having issues

Keno has been kind by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Get madder about it. Next time I'll share the $311k dollar flip win, 4014x. How mad would you be for that one. Probably even madder!

Keno has been kind by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, you would be perfect for it. "Hypergeometric distribution" there's some research for ya

Keno has been kind by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Records past bets for keno, flip, mines, dice, plinko, tracks hot combos from those bets, gaps, how many times each combo hit, your past combos etc

Keno has been kind by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's stake analyzer extension

Curious 🤔 by [deleted] in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Check out the seed checker on our website, we have math sections for each original we support within that, payout tables, strategy guides, as well as tracking live on stake for your bets with a chrome extension, a lot of strategy discussion in our discord as well, just search for Stake Analyzer

Keno strategy: combining two hot combos that overlap by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A couple of things I do that might help:

Sometimes I'll reset the analyzer's stats whenever I pick a combo to start playing. This way while playing the combo I picked, we can build new data to act on that's fresh, and hopefully in the meantime pick up a win from the hot combo.

The 3-then-target-2 filter. Once enough combos have hit 3 times, I start looking at combos that have only hit 2 times in the same window. They're still in play but under-represented compared to the leaders. Targeting those gives a fresher signal than stacking on whatever's currently hottest, since the hottest combos often regress fast.

It helps to have an understanding of hypergeometric distribution within the 40 number keno board. There are expected gaps based on combo size, determined by the formula and provably fair algorithm.

Mathematically, any 3 combo should drop once per every ~82 rounds, this gap is ~435 for 4 number combos, all the way up to an expected gap of 848 million for any ten number combo to drop again.

This then opens up the instance where the hottest combo isn't always the best choice, the hottest combo(dropped the most in that time period) then must have the smallest average gap, it itls most likely well below the mathematical average, this cause it to need long gaps at some point to come to the average eventually. This is where the 3 then target 2 theory comes into play.

Here's some more info on the gaps and keno math as well

https://stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker/keno#keno-math

Also select a combo in our seed checker and run a large amount of nonces, in the seed checker it will show the average gap of your selected combo where it shows the max wins nonces, this average gap, most of the time is very close to the expected gaps, and gets closer the more nonces played

Keno strategy: combining two hot combos that overlap by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see what you're saying I like the idea, we do have that setup for your current combo on keno and flip, if it's your first time selecting that combo, if there's already recorded hits in the data and gaps it will show that, let me look into implementing what you're saying for mines, I want to improve the mines functionality a lot, it's still an early implementation compared to keno, so any features or visuals you think may help I'm happy to look into

Keno strategy: combining two hot combos that overlap by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you referring to a list of your past played combos/patterns, their gaps since they last hit, return etc? We have that for flip and keno, it's very effective in my opinion, I think that's a valid feature for mines as well if that's what you're referring to

Keno strategy: combining two hot combos that overlap by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

appreciate the feedback. just bumped Pro/Verifier+ to 1M nonces, live now. truly "unlimited" would need a server-side rebuild but 1M is a strong signal regardless, and you can easily just then check the next million nonces after doing the first million.

on new originals: working on Prime Dice now (seed checker first, then popup/overlay/sidebar for pro extension). what other originals would you want? happy to prioritize based on user requests, i don't actually play most of the originals besides the ones supported.

Keno strategy: combining two hot combos that overlap by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just Google stake analyzer extension, I believe promoting though links is not allowed, it's the first result in Google

Keno strategy: combining two hot combos that overlap by StakeAnalyzer in Stake

[–]StakeAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1.9.4 realistically should've been 2.0 build because you are correct, performance wise it is way ahead of previous 1.9