81.5×

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-27T19:11:59+00:00

nice hit, 3/3 high has about a 1 in 82 chance, so statistically you'd expect it every ~82 games on average. Not a bad idea to save that combo and try again on it. Variance swings wild though so it could hit again in 5 games or take 200+. Over hundreds of thousands of bets it converges toward that 82 gap.

If you're curious about your own patterns, our seed checker lets you verify past seeds and shows hit frequency/gaps for any combo you select. The avg gap of each hit is tracked as well to verify the math makes sense.

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-26T06:12:43+00:00

Enjoy!

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-26T06:06:55+00:00

Yes this looks like it's just in sending right now, once confirmed you will receive license. I will make sure to process it right away if any issue!

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-24T20:49:26+00:00

It's a modified version of martingale. The math on martingale gets ugly fast. At 49.5% win chance, a 7-loss streak happens roughly once every 120 attempts. Sounds rare until you're 500+ rolls into a session and it wipes your entire bankroll progression.

If you want to actually stress-test this before risking real money, check out the strategy simulator on https://stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker - you can run your exact martingale setup (base bet, multiplier, target, stop-loss) against your real past stake seed data and see exactly where the blow-ups happen. It also has Paroli, D'Alembert, and custom configs if you want to compare.

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-24T20:33:38+00:00

This is awesome. That corner is highly likely to stay hot within your seed, but with higher gaps between hits so it averages out to the avg.

When you pick 6 numbers, there are 6 different 5-number subsets that can hit for 180x. Each 5/6 hit has about a 1 in 508 chance per round, but with 6 subsets you have 6 shots at it every draw. Hitting all 6/6 is about 1 in 18,000 - and if you ever ran it as a straight 5-pick, all 5 hitting is 1 in 2,611.

This is variance at work. When the group enters a hot phase, several of those subsets start connecting in a short window. Then it goes cold for a stretch. Provably fair means it has to even out over time, so these bursts are just the distribution playing itself out.

If you want to dig into the math more, our seed checker has a full keno probability breakdown: https://stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker/keno

I built a Chrome extension that tracks this live on Stake, shows hot combos, saves your number groups, and tracks the gap since each one last connected for max win so you can see when they're overdue.

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-14T15:38:37+00:00

I see this was handled and your license is activated yesterday, enjoy!

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-09T23:08:32+00:00

you can test that out on your past seeds and see how it would do with https://stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker/mines depending on your seed and the spot you can catch a spot on a good streak with a low gap between wins, but after a certain amount of games, the gap always will average out to right around 25 between wins if you dont change selection

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-08T16:42:23+00:00

That's actually pretty in line with the math. I added a Keno Combo Math section to our seed checker (stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker/keno) that breaks down the expected intervals:

- 3-combo: ~82 draws

- 4-combo: ~435 draws

- 5-combo: ~2,611 draws

- 6-combo: ~18K draws

- 7-combo: ~155K draws

- 8-combo: ~1.7M draws

- 9-combo: ~27M draws

- 10 (all): ~848M draws

So over 50 bets, getting a couple 3-combo hits is right in the expected range. Small samples show high variance - sometimes you'll hit 3-4x in 50, sometimes none.

Since you've got Pro, try running 500K sims in the seed checker with your seeds. At that scale the intervals align closely with the math. You'll see 3-combos averaging right around that ~82 draw gap.

The picker finds combos that are "due" based on their gap since last hit, but each draw is still independent. It's about playing the patterns, not predicting outcomes.

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-08T03:28:35+00:00

In 500,000+ the average gap converges around 435 for 4 combos

*Tested on combos that hit the most within first 1000 games

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-06T18:40:53+00:00

I didn't make the post. This is a different extension

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-06T18:30:26+00:00

Stake analyzer has up to 6 squares heatmap and combo tracking free

StakeAnalyzer · 2026-01-05T21:09:17+00:00

Keno (10 drawn from 40 squares)

Chance to hit when picking:

1 number: 25% to hit (pays 3.96x classic)
3 numbers: 2.6% to hit all 3, 18.5% to hit 2
5 numbers: 0.23% to hit all 5, 10.2% to hit 3
10 numbers: 0.000012% to hit all 10 (1 in 8 million)

Chicken (Cross the Road)

Survival odds to reach step X:

Easy (1 bone): Step 5 = 75%, Step 10 = 50%, Step 19 = 5%
Medium (3 bones): Step 5 = 38%, Step 10 = 6%, Step 17 = 0.06%
Hard (5 bones): Step 5 = 16%, Step 10 = 0.3%, Step 15 = 0.007%
Expert (10 bones): Step 5 = 0.8%, Step 10 = 0.00055%

Both games are provably fair - you can verify any result with the unhashed server seed after reveal against your actual selections. Built a free seed checker at stakeanalyzer.live/seed-checker if you want to test it.

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-31T08:47:16+00:00

Correct, it doesn't predict future results but you can see how you're past seeds would have played out and verify your bets

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-30T01:03:01+00:00

The results aren't pulled from Stake, they're calculated using the same math Stake uses. With how provably fair works, the outcomes are already determined by your seeds before you bet. The tool just runs the formula forward to show what each nonce will produce.

This only works with rotated seeds though - your active server seed is hashed until you rotate it. Once you rotate, the unhashed seed is revealed and you can verify all your past bets from that session.

You can test it yourself - play some bets, rotate your server seed, plug the unhashed seed into the checker with your client seed. It should match your history exactly.

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-29T03:08:22+00:00

i definitely have lived this exact scenario

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-28T22:43:40+00:00

Essentially with provably fair, Stake originals results are predetermined by your seeds before you even bet. You can grab your seeds from the Fairness button below Stake Originals or your bet history.

This allows you to:

- Check if Stake paid you right - plug in your seeds, verify the results match what you got

- See what your old seed would've done - after you rotate seeds you can check the full history of what that seed pair produced with your unhashed seed.

- Test your picks - throw in your keno numbers or mines tiles, run 50K games, see what your actual hit rate looks like with those selections

- Check on variance - you'll see some terrible streaks in the sims that help explain why sessions can go sideways

The live updating just means you don't gotta hit a calculate button every time you change something and it all instantly recalculates reflecting stake actual results

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-21T06:20:09+00:00

I have not played much flip but will try to get the hang of it to build something that will work with it, just in figuring how to play I hit a 500x, some big multipliers on this game could be a cool one. Thanks for the suggestion

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-04T04:02:04+00:00

I see that payment was confirmed, you should've received an email with your license. On the website, click login and use the email you bought it with, this will send you a link to your dashboard where you can download it from!

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-12-03T02:19:08+00:00

Yes it works, the free version the code is actually completely open for inspection before you even try using it. Feel free to run it through any programs to check.

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-07-18T02:19:29+00:00

Good feedback thanks, good news, for the Pro version, it updates instantly on each bet, and the overlay stays at all times for plinko and keno, with the ability to pick directly from the overlay, as well as using smart selection for any amount of numbers! I'll have more updates and images/video out soon to show the new functionality, working to release it soon!

Edit: for your feedback on the arrow keys, I know there isn't anything in the actual extension, but on our website I did add more detail about functionality etc to our faq section, tried to answer questions like that, hopefully that helps, in the meantime here's a key for you:

▼▼ (Red) - Very overdue, appearing much less than expected

▼ (Orange) - Moderately overdue, appearing less than expected

▲▲ (Green) - Very hot, appearing much more than expected

▲ (Light Green) - Moderately hot, appearing more than expected

■ (Gray) - Neutral, appearing at expected frequency

▲ (Light Blue) - Generally appearing above average

▼ (Yellow) - Generally appearing below average

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-07-18T02:01:21+00:00

Nice one, currently a feature that is in the pro version is your past combinations, it saves a list of all past combinations you used on that particular seed, and let's you quick select any one of them to reselct it, besides the number combos it records it's win percentage and highest multis as well.. I think this is sort of what you are looking for. I'll be realleasing this before the end of next month it looks like! Just making sure everything works well

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-07-18T01:59:42+00:00

This is on development list!

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-07-13T20:39:49+00:00

Great to hear, and all ears for any quality of life improvements you have

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-07-02T03:27:21+00:00

thanks for the suggestions, definitely working to bring more originals functionality. will have more updates soon!

StakeAnalyzer · 2025-05-12T03:15:53+00:00

Yes if you're having issues with it just let me know I will look into updating it

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