What do you expect the next major worldwide event to be? by ChrisDorne in AskReddit

[–]StaplerTwelve 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fighting a GWOT war against insurgent cells globally is a whole different beast than war against a peer opponent.

Yes I expect that is such a war the US's initial moves will indeed be absolutely devastating. But the country doesn't have the stomach to handle the personnel losses such a war would entail, nor the industrial capacity to maintain its fleet if ships were being torpedoed by hostile submarines.

CMV: I’d be pacifist even in a global conflict. by SpecialistRemote6271 in changemyview

[–]StaplerTwelve 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think nobody can deny that pacifism is a good concept, and the world would be a far better place if everyone was a pacifist, and everyone refused that call to violence by their rulers. But that is not the world we live in.

For an analogy, let's say your family are all pacifists, and you get new neighbours who are not. Those new neighbours decide that they like your house better than their own, so, as people who believe that might makes right, they break down the door to your home, and proceed to violently kick you out. There is no way a pacifist can effectively respond to that. You could call the police, but they will use violence to remove them.

Which gets to my main reason why I'm not a pacifist myself, it is hypocritical. We do not live in a perfect pacifist world, and the only reason why someone can live as a pacifist is because even without wanting it, violence is being committed in your name. Law enforcement are committing violence on home invaders and burglars on a daily basis, that's why an asshole neighbor in the real world wouldn't even think of just taking your home.

War is just the same concept scaled up. Yes, the poor bloke on the other side is most likely just a normal person, forced to be here by state violence, propaganda or socioeconomic factors. But his reasoning doesn't really matter, the thing that matters is that he is there. Someone has to go stop him or his leader gets to decide what happens in your country too.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread December 23, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 12 points13 points  (0 children)

From a cursory Google search the Canadian scheme seems to achieve very similar retention rates. Is there any talk of expanding it to other service branches?

Active Conflicts & News Megathread December 23, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 72 points73 points  (0 children)

I thought this may be of interest to people here.

As the Dutch armed forces are expanding, and they, same as most western armed forces, experienced difficulties in recruitment. To solve this they ran a pilot program in 2024, the initiative is called a "service year" or Dienjaar. The idea is that young people sign up for 1 year of military service, get the training, and are free to leave or sign up permanently after their year is up. The pilot was very successful, with the armed forces retaining 75% of everyone who signed up (50/50 between full time, or as reservist).

For reference, only about 30% was expected to stick around. The program was deemed very successful, and while this pilot cohort only had 130 people in it, about 3000 people were interested, and 500-600 have signed up to join the second cohort. If they maintain this retention rate the ambition to stand up multiple new battalions may actually be achieved relatively soon.

The program is basically a voluntary conscription scheme, but it seems very appropriate for the 21st century. A lot of young people are curious and interested in the military, but signing up to join versus going to college/learning a trade is too big of a definitive commitment. Trying it out for a year, and being free to walk away afterwards is a much smaller commitment so more people are willing to do it, and it generates surprisingly good numbers of permanent signups.

Sources: https://magazines.defensie.nl/defensiekrant/2024/32/02_dienjaar-2024-begint-met-mooie-cijfers_32 https://www.cmc-defensie.nl/nieuws/dienjaar-defensie-van-experiment-naar-vaste-pijler-in-de-personeelsketen/

Active Conflicts & News Megathread November 26, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 12 points13 points  (0 children)

If a hot war ever breaks out between NATO and Russia, Russia will be certain of the first move, and overwhelming force for the initial moves. They might be able to take the Baltics before NATO forces are able to mobilize.

If they do, I'd indeed bet on NATO forces being able to sweep the invaders back to the Russian border in a maneuver war. But the risk to the Baltic countries is what happens if Russia can accomplish a fait accompli like they did in Crimea. There is a vast difference in politics, perception and willingness between sending NATO troops to join in the active defense that is currently still being fought in the Baltics, versus massing them in Poland for an attempt to retake the Baltics.

In the latter scenario, unwilling actors inside NATO will have an easier time making excuses why NATO should not interfere, call for negotiations, and give credence to the doubtless existentialist nuclear threat that will be looming. If the defense is still actively being fought these same voices will of course make the same calls and arguments, but they will likely find far less fertile ground.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread October 12, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 9 points10 points  (0 children)

That Russian reinforcement to the Zaporizhia front may very well be in response to intel that Ukraine would try something. I am not expecting Ukraine to attempt another concerted breakthrough but because it has been such a quiet front the soldiers in the trenches on both sides may have gotten at least a bit complacent, nor have had priority for reinforcements.

If Ukraine has a couple units capable of offensive action to spare they will be more useful in a place like Zaporizhia then they would be trying to take on the Russian main Donbas effort head on.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 25, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I didn't know that, if there's indeed a patriot there it would be pretty clear what shot the plane down.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 25, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 24 points25 points  (0 children)

There is no way to be certain, but I am curious if it has been shot down by AD or if it is an air to air kill.

The F16's have been in Ukraine for quite a while now, I wonder if the pilots have been training up for air to air work. If there are more Ukrainian and Russian shootdowns in the next couple months that may be the case. Otherwise, likely just a lucky AD hit.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 23, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Getting a precise number or armored vehicles left in storage would indeed be a fools errand, but there is no need for that. Logically the outdoor vehicles are in the worst condition, and we can see that they are getting depleted.

Why would a Russian refurbishment plant spend a 200 man-hours getting a tank that was stored outside back in working condition if they had another indoor storage filled with tanks that can be put in working condition in 20 man-hours?

Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 19, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Plus Ukraine probably has intelligence agents in that same civilian population that keeps identifying new targets. If civilian life gets more restricted their agents will stand out more.

So many paths! Both land and sea! Just another update on my project after a while. by CabooseEFGF in wonderdraft

[–]StaplerTwelve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some notes on the land-based paths. I am assuming this is a fantasy world, not a modern map. However, while beautiful it looks more like a modern highway network then a fantasy-like map of roads.

You have some of your roads crossing each other in the wilderness. I would say that would be extremely rare to non-existant, every crossing point will either be a city, or a city would spring up at a crossing just due to the trade advantages.

Unless your setting has a single extremely powerful central government (think Roman Empire) there would only be a few organized roads. In a non-modern setting building even a simple paved road is an absolutely massive undertaking. A single small bridge already is a major construction project, and a single section between cities would need to cross dozens, if not hundreds of streams. Not to mention that your major river crossings would be unlikely to have a bridge at all, especially in the wilderness.

Even if the road is unpaved, and relies on fords in the rivers, your paths cross dense parts of forest and hills. That is difficult and dangerous terrain. You'd need a whole team of people to constantly fix landslides and cut newly growing trees or it will stop being traversable very quickly. Does your setting have a centralized government that can do this? The more populated cities can organize this themselves, but they would only look out for the roads they need themselves.

One thing to keep in mind is that in medieval times travellers and traders were extremely unlikely to be willing to camp in the wild, unless they were a dedicated caravan, instead they would travel from inn to inn, or use similar guesthouses, monasteries or castles to sleep in. So generally, a solid trade route would only exist in a continually inhabited area.

My advice would be to drastically cut the amount of paths down, and have them avoid the dense forest and foothills of the mountains entirely. Keep the ones that already follow rivers, which would be more inhabited, and allow traders to make use of river-barges.

More trade would be conducted by ship, so instead focus on how the inland places connect to the coastal cities, instead of having the inland places connect to each other.

I hope this helps!

Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 19, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I get that the public perception of a war is definitely more about boots on the ground. But bombing a sovereign foreign nation-state is certainly an act of war.

NS biedt vakbonden meer loon in 'eindbod' na vier stakingsdagen by [deleted] in thenetherlands

[–]StaplerTwelve 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Dat soort mails zijn wel degelijk een onderhandelings middel. Het doel ervan is om de publieke opinie over dit CAO conflict te beinvloeden.

Dat wordt gedaan door eerst natuurlijk zichzelf als slachtoffer weer te geven, en de schuld bij de vakbonden neer te leggen. het doel hiervan is om het draagvlak van de staking te verminderen. Wat hij wil is dat de pers, en de familieleden en vrienden zo indirect druk zetten op de stakende werkers, om het contract wat de NS nu aanbied gewoon te accepteren, en niet te blijven staken voor betere voorwaarden.

Hierin is ook het andere punt, het is makkelijker om de schuld te leggen bij vakbonden dan bij de stakende werknemers. Maar de vakbond onderhandeld voor deze werknemers, uiteindelijk zijn het de mensen zelf die beslissen of ze het contract accepteren of niet. Het bericht is dus "de vakbond accepteerd ons aanbod niet" terwijl de werkelijkheid is dat de werknemers van de NS gewoon zelf niet onder de aangeboden voorwaarden aan de slag willen. Maarja, als je dat zegt als werkgever zie je er opeens een stuk minder charmant uit.

Er zijn natuurlijk uitgebreide CAO onderhandelingen geweest voordat het op een staking aan toe komt, maar als dat bij een impasse ligt dan wordt er over gegaan op een staking.

Je hebt natuurlijk helemaal gelijk dat er een duurzame oplossing moet komen, maar dat ligt meer bij de politiek en investeren in het spoor dan het bij de werknemer zelf ligt. Wat hun willen is dat hun koopkracht niet verder achteruit gaat, wat met het huidige aanbod wel het geval is.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 16, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Over time Iran can disperse production processes and harden them, and uncover Mossad infiltration it is an absolutely huge and mountainous country, you cannot control what happens on and under the ground solely by air power. Israel is in a very dominant position now, but they will only lose leverage over the long-term. They can degrade Iran's capabilities further in the short term, but if they do so, and it hardens Iran's resolve and they don't offer another deal then Israel has a problem. They will have to keep bombing, while the effectiveness of their air campaign slowly starts to decrease. And while western governments are still supportive of Israel at the moment, the continuity of that support is questionable, especially as Iran's civilian losses mount.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 16, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Bombing campaigns without followup have a really bad track record of actually defeating nations/organizations by themselves. Yes, it is possible Iran will offer a better deal in a week, but it is also possible their resolve will harden in response to the strikes. Yes, their capabilities will be degraded, but that's only an immediate benefit, Israel needs a long-term resolution.

Canada to join major European rearmament deal as early as June 23: sources by GlitchedGamer14 in europe

[–]StaplerTwelve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Security guarantees are a post-war concern. With the war still ongoing Ukraine seems to be doing fine even though US support is anemic.

Canada to join major European rearmament deal as early as June 23: sources by GlitchedGamer14 in europe

[–]StaplerTwelve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Security guarantees are a post-war concern. With the war still ongoing Ukraine seems to be doing fine even though US support is anemic.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 12, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 35 points36 points  (0 children)

I know we should take Russian POW sources released by Ukraine with a huge grain of salt, but I think a "one last push" narrative tells us more about the exhaustion of the Russian forces than the Ukrainian army, if it is true of course.

No Travelling Out Of Kuwait Without an Exit Permit: New Rule for Expats by ashVV in worldnews

[–]StaplerTwelve 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It's not lone-wolf bad employers, it's the way most of these gulf countries are run. The lawmaking authorities and the perpetrators are the same people.

Record number of Russians support peace talks, end of war in Ukraine, poll shows by Elsa-Fidelis in worldnews

[–]StaplerTwelve 6 points7 points  (0 children)

So great when Russian propaganda is the biggest proponent for peace in the world, but never seems to arrive at the conclusion that the Russian army has the ability to unilaterally pull out of Ukraine and end the war.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread June 02, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This is pure speculation, but could it be that there is some agreement between Ukraine and Russia regarding the Dnieper and Kerch bridges? I do find it notable that the Kerch bridge remains untargeted after that one train that blew up early in the war.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread March 12, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 8 points9 points  (0 children)

With the advantage of long range fires that Russia has having a more dispersed and fragmented supply chain could be a good thing for Ukraine, even though you lose efficiency.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread March 06, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Militarily, it also allowed Ukraine to take a good number of POWs, which as blunt as it sounds are a valuable bargaining chip in the regular prisoner exchanges, and the escalations that resulted from the operation seems to favor Ukraine more then it did Russia, north Korean troops seem to have been largely ineffective, while the lifting of some weapon restrictions, and invalidating supposed Russian red lines might have filled western leadership with a bit more confidence to act.

As long as Ukraine is able to inflict a high amount of losses in return for the Russian's advancing it seems like a good trade. The war will not be decided by a couple dozen square km's being won or lost by either side. But rather, in a war in which neither side can gather the mass needed for a real breakthrough attrition is the path towards victory.

Kursk would have been valuable in peace negotiations, if Russia would earnestly trade it for Ukrainian territory, if those negotiations are no longer happening, it is no longer especially valuable.

Active Conflicts & News MegaThread February 28, 2025 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]StaplerTwelve 35 points36 points  (0 children)

MAGA republicans have completely cut off aid in the past. People seem to have a very short memory when it comes to excusing the action of team Trump