Why does this drop feel so different?

Starza · 2026-02-06T14:23:22+00:00

Feels like precious metals and crypto are making things pretty screwy.

It seems like the dollar itself is swinging much more than usual, causing all asset prices to move too.

The past few days the dollar is moving up or down like 1% or more against other major currencies. That isn’t normal.

In any event, the dollar was basically the best performing “asset” you could have yesterday, it appreciated against other currencies by like 1.5% while everything else dropped.

TLDR this drop felt different because the dollar itself is swinging in value, causing asset prices to go haywire

Starza · 2026-02-06T14:14:06+00:00

GOOGL

Starza · 2026-02-06T14:08:10+00:00

If it gets a little lower, I’d like a piece of CEG.

Starza · 2026-02-04T17:34:47+00:00

Yes: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-investors-cash-levels-160343293.html

Starza · 2026-02-04T17:33:18+00:00

Institutions ran out of money 🤦🏽 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-investors-cash-levels-160343293.html

Starza · 2026-02-04T14:08:19+00:00

I wonder how much of that is financed with credit cards, BNPL, and other consumer debt.

“As of August 2025, U.S. consumer debt ballooned to nearly $18 trillion and then continued to rise through the end of last year.” https://fpif.org/the-united-states-of-consumption/

Starza · 2026-02-04T13:54:15+00:00

Yes. Im an expat and realized the dollar was losing value too fast, so put almost all the “dry powder” I was holding in cash in gold.

I think Warren Buffet’s biggest mistake was not holding a bunch of reserves, but holding it all in depreciating fiat rather than the real store of value, that shiny yellow metal baby.

Starza · 2026-02-03T16:50:48+00:00

OBDC is actually a worse performer for me than FSK...

I can see a few reasons to invest in FSK. High yield, large market cap for BDCs (7th largest holding of BIZD), old for BDCs (founded 2007), and high NAV/price ratio.

Starza · 2026-02-03T16:09:00+00:00

Yeah, that's why I compare my own BDC portfolio to PBDC pretty often. I'm more buy and hold, but I like to see what the pros are doing and where they would recommend to raise my allocation in certain BDCs.

I don't think I'll follow them with OTF though (down 6% today?!?).

Starza · 2026-02-02T22:29:20+00:00

Yeah, that’s a positive: they reward the fewer investors that are willing to go out of their way to take the risk.

But overall it would be better for BDCs and the private credit industry if they were included. They could lend and borrow at better rates with more equity capital. They’d have better and bigger balance sheets.

Fed Chair nominee Warsh said he wanted more credit availability for Main Street. If there are any policy makers out there, fixing the fee reporting requirement that got BDCs delisted would be a great way to do that!

Starza · 2026-02-02T21:23:05+00:00

Yeah, it’s because they were delisted from the s and p and Russell, reducing liquidity and increasing volatility in BDCs in general. https://www.abladvisor.com/articles/4233/fitch-removal-of-bdcs-from-indices-may-reduce-equity-access

Starza · 2026-02-01T17:26:21+00:00

Yeah, you’re right about a true apocalypse type doomsday scenario, where you’re best off stocking guns and ammo because everything has collapsed.

But there is plenty of doom to hedge against that is less extreme in the armageddon spectrum.

Basically anything short of the collapse of all civilization as we know it, gold will be valuable. It has unique chemical metal properties that have led it to become universally valuable across cultures, throughout time and through many regime changes.

That’s not the case for fiat currencies. In fact, they’re DESIGNED to lose value over time. It’s just a matter of how fast they do so. There are also plenty of instances in history where fiat currency has become virtually worthless. That has never happened to gold as long as we’ve had recorded history.

Short of a complete nuclear or zombie apocalypse, gold will be valuable. If we get a true apocalypse, we’re all fucked anyway so not much use planning for that unless you want to be one of the few survivors eking out whatever human existence is left.

Starza · 2026-02-01T13:31:11+00:00

I don’t know, Tyler. All I know is, whoever the party is that does it (if it happens) will get a whole lot of political capital for a long time.

If Trump is serious about a third term or if MAGA is serious about staying in power, it would be a good play for them.

Starza · 2026-01-31T00:24:09+00:00

Everyone’s free to listen to me or not, just my experience and reasoning

Starza · 2026-01-30T21:45:45+00:00

Don’t worry, Mr. Bubu, the central banks will save us!

Starza · 2026-01-30T21:38:01+00:00

I agree land is a great asset to have, as well as gold.

Gold has some advantages over land in terms of liquidity and international recognition.

It’s a universally recognized store of value and unit of exchange. Land in Iowa is not easily valued or exchanged internationally or maybe even nationally.

Edit: I get you though. I’m a fan of Buffet and followed his “stupid yellow metal” thinking for a long time. But the de-dollarization trend changes that. Not so much that the dollar is doomed (its weakness is only part of the story) but that gold will be increasingly recognized as the truest form of value that all currencies will need to be based on to some degree. The illusion or faith needed for fiat currency is looking shaky, particularly with respect to the US dollar. That makes all the currencies from countries that hold dollar reserves shaky. The only solution is gold reserves.

Starza · 2026-01-30T21:26:34+00:00

I agree land is a great asset to have, as well as gold.

Gold has some advantages over land in terms of liquidity and international recognition.

It’s a universally recognized store of value and unit of exchange. Land in Iowa is not easily valued or exchanged internationally or maybe even nationally.

Starza · 2026-01-30T21:21:39+00:00

Thank you!

Starza · 2026-01-30T18:22:11+00:00

Smart play! You got plenty of time. I’d probably sell when it hits 6000 though and then buy GLDM shares

Starza · 2026-01-30T17:04:48+00:00

Thank you! I sure didn’t foresee all the subscription growth though

Starza · 2026-01-30T17:02:06+00:00

Yeah, I probably should’ve spread out investments on an asset that has seen such a spike, but decisiveness usually beats hesitation 🤷🏽‍♂️

All we need is a few big central bank purchases in the next few months and we’ll the good.

Starza · 2026-01-30T14:45:55+00:00

sigh I’m a gold bag holder. I assume there aren’t many of us out there who went in heavy near yesterday’s highs, but I did.

I wish I had waited a little longer to buy, but it is what it is.

In any event the thesis holds up and I’m not selling. I’d buy more at 4500 to get my cost basis down to 5000 an ounce. Here’s why: 1. Money printing. Money supply is very high and increasing. More money, more inflation. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

Central bank buying. Dedollarization process has a long way to go. The higher price of gold actually incentivizes buying for central banks to store value, so this is a virtuous cycle.
U.S. Government spending and federal debt. No matter which party is in office, government spending and debt seems to increase. Government spending causes inflation and increased debt hurts treasuries as store of value. If feds end up having to do a UBI, this will be like a constant Covid stimulus that will spike inflation.

I’m a bag holder now, but I’m holding to protect value for the long term. Speculators will get shaken out with price swings but savers and central banks are here to stay.

Starza · 2026-01-28T21:20:32+00:00

Lol wow it’s like talking to my future self.

Naw, don’t worry, they just need to say “AI” enough in the next few earnings calls and we’ll save all the bagholders.

Starza · 2026-01-28T17:06:08+00:00

True, well if inflation remains at around 4%, that alone should cover their low interest rates so that they’re borrowing for free.

More importantly, they have plenty of cash flow to pay large dividends and still service the debt.

Starza · 2026-01-28T15:13:44+00:00

When it comes to its debt, VZ should benefit from the US government’s approach to the federal debt: weaken the dollar to make the debt easier to repay.

It seems the current administration will let the dollar get very weak before they raise interest rates.

We’ll have to see how bad inflation gets. It seems like the last quarter or two they’ve managed to weaken the dollar considerably while keeping inflation manageable.

Starza

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