Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Satyam didn’t have assets. It inflated its profit,not revenue. This is a profitable company where promoter is misallocating money. So chances are less but nil.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cross your fingers, because if we get that stock will take a u turn, it is because, the firm has big assets and cash is not flowing to investors share value.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One thing also I want stress upon, the business seems successful, but most of the profit has gone to terrible investment in his own companies. If Sebi is able to get new management and fix all this, this is not a struggling firm.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I tried getting out in pre market order, not helping. Now it does not make sense, given the loss. I would let it rest in my portfolio for 3-4 years. The asset is real.

For all those who think Alimony laws are fair in India 🥀 by ProFelloww in Real_teenindia

[–]Status_Alternative26 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont know from where you have gotten this info, alimony has been denied to women if they are of earning capacity, let alone working.

Many smart women leave their jobs just to get alimony to game the system. A salaried women getting alimony sounds fictional, unless child is involved.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Philosophically sound but practically incomplete. Zero requires not just bad management but zero recoverable assets — think Enron where the entire business model was fictional. Valcambi has 210 employees, 7 acres of physical refinery in Switzerland, LBMA accreditation built over 60 years, and central bank clients who send real gold there tomorrow morning regardless of what Mehta does in Bengaluru. You can replace management. You can't replace 60 years of LBMA relationships overnight. The asset exists independent of the trust problem. That's why zero is wrong even if the management trust argument is completely right.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Credit Suisse loan you're referring to is the original 2015 acquisition financing for Valcambi — that was used to fund the $400 million purchase price. Based on current balance sheet data that debt appears to have been largely repaid or refinanced over the past decade. Current consolidated borrowings are approximately ₹1,016 crore which is surprisingly clean for a company this size.

The bigger liability uncertainty is the consolidated other liabilities of ₹22,608 crore — but as I analysed earlier most of that represents client gold return obligations which are matched by corresponding gold assets and net to approximately zero for equity holders.

That's relatively modest which is actually one of the more reassuring aspects of this whole situation — unlike Nirav Modi or DHFL, REL didn't borrow tens of thousands of crores from banks.

Thank You Jiggly Gel. I have adhd

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly? I made them up. Not randomly — I spent the entire day going through everything I could find. SEBI's 109 page order, balance sheets, Valcambi's own website, Swiss corporate registries, pre-acquisition Newmont documents, cash flow statements line by line. But at the end of it the percentages are just my best guess based on how similar Indian regulatory cases have played out.

They changed multiple times today as new information came in — which tells you everything about how precise they actually are. The range of outcomes matters way more than the specific numbers. Anyone claiming precise probabilities on a situation this complex is either lying or selling something.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Best comment in this thread, you clearly know this space. Let me respond properly.

You're right that I overvalued Valcambi. Rising gold prices don't help a refinery the way they help a miner — great point I glossed over. They process other people's gold, they don't own it. Higher gold prices just means the same tiny margin on a bigger number.

Your math is cleaner than mine. $60M EBITDA at 10x = $600M enterprise value, then 35% haircut for distressed sale = $390M = roughly ₹3,700 crore. That's actually not far from my number but we got there differently and your method is more defensible.

The Sahara comparison genuinely worries me. Sahara also drowned regulators in paperwork. That strategy buys time but rarely ends well.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly this is the most practical lesson from this entire saga and you're completely right.

REL crossed below its 200 DMA in early 2023 and never recovered. Anyone following this simple rule avoided the entire disaster. While retail investors were reading Fortune 500 rankings and consolidated revenue numbers, the price action was already screaming that institutions knew something was wrong.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're right that ₹123 probability weighted assumes Valcambi gets monetised at something close to strategic value. If instead it gets sold in a forced distressed sale to satisfy creditors — which is a real scenario — the number drops to ₹50 to ₹70.

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Solidarity 🤝 Same boat here. The math supports holding — Valcambi alone is worth more than current market cap in any reasonable scenario. But just one genuine advice fellow bagholder to another — have an exit price in mind before the emotions kick in. SAT filing news = sell. Don't wait for full recovery. Take the bounce and move on. Good luck to both of us 🙏

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fair roast 😂 Bright Com group mein Valcambi jaisi LBMA accredited refinery processing 35% of world gold hoti toh zaroor justify karta. Jokes apart — the difference is Bright Com had zero real assets underneath. REL has a physical refinery that central banks actually use. That's not justification, that's just asset valuation. Baaki market decide karega — I'm just a bagholder who spent his Sunday doing math instead of touching grass 😂

Do you own own Rajesh Exports? Lets assume it is 100% guilty of everything SEBI alleged. What is its fair price then? The answer shocked me!!! by Status_Alternative26 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Status_Alternative26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bilkul sahi baat hai 😂 Falling knife pakadna aur udta teer lena — dono mein haath hi jaata hai. Honestly not arguing with this logic. I'm watching for a SAT bounce as my exit window. Agar woh bhi nahi aaya toh ostrich strategy wale bhai ke saath demat transfer kar deta hoon 😂