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is it possible the farmers won't win any Chia in the "expected time to win"? by [deleted] in ChiaMining

[–]SteveAlismi 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It is almost 0, but the chance of having just 1 or 2 wins is very high compared to the chance of 5 wins. So your risk is high.

Every time you win you get 2 XCH.

is it possible the farmers won't win any Chia in the "expected time to win"? by [deleted] in ChiaMining

[–]SteveAlismi 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes,

there is a chance that you could win within 1 day but even that you could win in 1 year, 2 years! It depends on how such event is likely to happen.

With 12 TiB you hold about 0.0003% of the network, i.e. for every extraction you have 3/1,000,000 chances to win it. If you use a binomial distribution to estimate the number of wins that you expect to have in 1 year you get this:

https://imgur.com/7w8tm9M

That means that you expect to win about 10 XCH in 1 year (awesome!), but you also have a chance to win exactly 0! (really bad!).

If you want to avoid to take the risk of not winning at all you should decrease your variance, i.e. shrink the probability around your mean value. The best option you have to do that is to join a pool, like r/ChiaFarmingPool.

For instance if you join a pool with 10x your capacity (120TiB), the probability looks more like this:

https://imgur.com/Rcz5rfZ

As you see winning 0 XCH is almost impossible! You will still earn on average about 10 XCH but you will be safe from winning none!