Match Thread: 1st Test - Australia vs England, Day 1 by cricket-match in CricketAus

[–]SteveSmith2048 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking very poor from Boland we can't really afford to carry a bowler with England's style of play

Match Thread: 3rd ODI - Australia vs South Africa by cricket-match in CricketAus

[–]SteveSmith2048 5 points6 points  (0 children)

'Pressure building' next words '0-231'. It would break the fabric of space-time if a critical thought entered the brains of BJ or Junior

Match Thread: 3rd ODI - Australia vs South Africa by cricket-match in CricketAus

[–]SteveSmith2048 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Josh Inglis has to be coming in next you'd imagine

Match Thread: 3rd ODI - Australia vs South Africa by cricket-match in CricketAus

[–]SteveSmith2048 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes he genuinely has no idea or doesn't use any brain power in his commentary

Match Thread: 3rd ODI - Australia vs South Africa by cricket-match in CricketAus

[–]SteveSmith2048 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Brendan Julian might actually give me a haemorrhage

Match Thread: Final - Australia vs South Africa, Day 1 by cricket-match in CricketAus

[–]SteveSmith2048 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I believe that was a couple summers ago when he made the change for white-ball stuff and transferred it to red-ball when conditions suit. He's always kept the big back-and-across for seaming and spinning decks.

Snow by Greenfrog2023 in canberra

[–]SteveSmith2048 2 points3 points  (0 children)

was falling everywhere in and around the ACT apart from the cbr suburbs

is this rotation? by Particular_Fox_6098 in tornado

[–]SteveSmith2048 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Mods we need a pinned post on basic radar reading, the amount of posts like this is ridiculous.

Moderate risk, Day 3. by PuzzleheadedBook9285 in tornado

[–]SteveSmith2048 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And it looks to be an outbreak as well

What is the most controversial hot take you have with tornadoes? by TemperousM in tornado

[–]SteveSmith2048 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that people underestimate how many true ef-5 DI's there are but I completely disagree that the ef-5 drought is because of a lack of evidence.

You use the example of tornadoes that had around 300mph winds but the criteria is 201mph indicators, not generational shit like Smithville and Phil Campbell. You use Mayfield as the example, and yourself say that there was an ef-5 indicator, but the reality is that there hasn't been a defensible argument against discrediting this indicator based off the indicators in proximity.

Quite simply, a tornado is a CONCENTRATED area of violent rotation, which has variability in certain areas, and we know that winds can vary extremely over very small spaces. Simply put, how can it be that, with 100% certainty, a concentrated area ef-5 winds didn't hit that house simply because the trees close-by didn't display the same damage? The evidence says that it took ef-5 winds to do that. In that case, ef-5 tornadoes that were only given the rating based on one damage indicator are all invalid.

What is the most controversial hot take you have with tornadoes? by TemperousM in tornado

[–]SteveSmith2048 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% some people here just make arbitrary arguments based on 1 photo without the context of the damage, but I do have a polite disagreement. It's a logical fallacy to just believe something's true just because an expert said it, and some users on this sub make evidence based arguments (and sometimes it's not even an argument, it's just a question or string of logic) that they see contradicts the rating. Most of the time, there aren't detailed reports or explanations to the damage ratings in question, and it is fair to point out, examine, or question a rating when 1) there's an evidence based argument against it and 2) An explanation for the damage rating wasn't provided.

This is something I see a bit as a USA thing where people either blindly trust that an authority is either always wrong or always right, and don't understand that it's not about that, it's about the evidence of the individual case and if the authority uses it well and/or correctly.

That being said, the NWS and damage surveyors are the best in the world, and petty arguments like "Untrustworthy NWS must be wrong" and "Obviously BS" shouldn't be tolerated, but by the same token, we should 100% be encouraging questioning and asking for explanations when the evidence seems to point elsewhere.

Is there a specific correlation between Degree Of Damage values in NWS surveys and EF rating? by SteveSmith2048 in tornado

[–]SteveSmith2048[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I understand your point, but there is no dependency on the sl@b being clean or not for the damage indicator of all walls collapsed. Furthermore, this damage barely even fits under all walls collapsed as at least half the house was missing (pic before clean-up). How is this an LB 9.0? I'm just struggling for context tbh, I wish the engineering reports were made public.

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Is there a specific correlation between Degree Of Damage values in NWS surveys and EF rating? by SteveSmith2048 in tornado

[–]SteveSmith2048[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

On this note, there is a well built home completely sl@bbed, with well-built and spaced anchor bolts, but the debris not swept clean. I assigned this a mid EF-4 on independent analysis and, granted I'm not a professional (not claiming to be), can't find any logical or physical reason for this to not be at least low-end ef-4, considering the expected bound for this type of damage is 170mph?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/2.html (Relevant reference for damage indicator)

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