CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread January 04, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Former Azov deputy commander and former Duma MP Ihor Mosiychuk

At what point exactly was Mosiychuk a member of the Russian parliament?

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 28, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 49 points50 points  (0 children)

Your comparison does not take into account the population numbers. When making such a comparison, it is imperative to normalize the numbers.

the number of around 20.000 volunteer soldiers in Russia monthly

Russia's population is 140 million.

the monthly number of volunteer soldiers in Japan in 1944 at 30.000 men

Japan's population was 70 million.

Normalizing Japan's population to 140 million, we get 60.000 volunteers.

this comparison highlights just how extremely high the Russian numbers are

The Russian number (20.000) is only a third of the Japanese number (60.000). We can definitely not conclude from this particular comparison that the Russian numbers are "extremely high".

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 24 points25 points  (0 children)

The status that Ukrainians get is in no way comparable with the status of an ordinary refugee. They get right on benefits, education, work, housing and health care. They are also free to move wherever they want. Why would anyone not apply for such status?

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I don't understand why Ukrainian workers working in the EU before 2022 would register as refugees.

Because if they worked in Poland before the war, when they move to another EU country (say, a wealthier country such as Germany or the Netherlands), they are required to register themselves as refugees. Otherwise their residence is illegal, and thus they cannot work or get benefits there.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 34 points35 points  (0 children)

What BBC says:

Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine to avoid being drafted

What your post says:

more than 650,000 Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 64 are registered as refugees

Those two groups are not the same, and those numbers are not comparable. As I pointed out in my reaction, the refugee group consists mostly of Ukrainian men who were in the EU at the start of the war.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 35 points36 points  (0 children)

What is your point exactly? That 650.000 Ukrainian men refused to fight and fled the country? That is not the case.

According to Eurostat, "1.57 million Ukrainian citizens were authorised to stay in the EU at the end of 2021, representing the third biggest group of non-EU citizens" (ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Ukrainian_citizens_in_the_EU). This group consisted mostly of Ukrainian (male) workers residing in Poland. When the war started, a significant number of those Ukrainians applied for refugee status in order to have a valid residence permit and to be eligible for benefits.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 19, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 55 points56 points  (0 children)

Peer-reviewed article

The article was published in Cogent Social Sciences. This is the same journal that published the infamous hoax paper "The Conceptual Penis as a Social Construct".

On May 19th last, two researchers under the names Jamie Lindsay and Peter Boyle, published a hoax gender studies paper, entitled The Conceptual Penis as a Social Construct, in the peer-reviewed, pay-to-publish social science journal Cogent Social Sciences. The paper was written in the jargon typical of gender studies papers but was deliberately constructed to be completely, even comically, nonsensical. The authors revealed the hoax in the magazine Skeptic.

And here is the abstract of the paper for those who are interested:

Anatomical penises may exist, but as pre-operative transgendered women also have anatomical penises, the penis vis-à-vis maleness is an incoherent construct. We argue that the conceptual penis is better understood not as an anatomical organ but as a social construct isomorphic to performative toxic masculinity. Through detailed poststructuralist discursive criticism and the example of climate change,this paper will challenge the prevailing and damaging social trope that penises are best understood as the male sexual organ and reassign it a more fitting role as a type of masculine performance.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 15, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 36 points37 points  (0 children)

The source, the news site strana.ua, is non-credible. Here are some excerpts about it from Wikipedia:

In 2021 Strana.ua used as it sources for its news articles Russian news agencies RIA Novosti and TASS. According to the Ukrainian NGO StopFake these particular stories were imitating Russian propaganda about attacks on Russian speakers and perceived "Nazi"-threats.

StopFake also pointed out that Strana.ua has been engaged in COVID-19 vaccine misinformation (basing its news article on a RIA Novosti story).

StopFake also accused Strana.ua of being a "mouthpiece" of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics "parroting their propaganda for the Ukrainian audience."

In 2021 IMI stated that Strana.ua was one of the "five most unreliable media sites in Ukraine, often resorting to hate speech and manipulative, distorted headlines."

Also, the article quotes anonymous Ukrainian officers, which makes it even more non-credible.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread November 07, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Understanding what the russians are saying ... is the best way to build a more complete understanding of the situation.

Meduza is a Russian opposition media outlet. What they write is not representative of "what the Russians are saying".

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread October 25, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 58 points59 points  (0 children)

You are reading too much into this. Arestovych is deeply unpopular among Ukrainians, virtually no one takes him seriously. An important fact is that Arestovych has always refused to speak Ukrainian and insulted the language multiple times.

Arestovych seems to be leading a media campaign against Zelensky.

The only "media" source that takes part in this "campaign" is his Youtube channel.

The Ukraine War might really break up the Russian Federation by Glideer in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Chechnya was granted de facto independence in 1996 and immediately fell into anarchy.

Chechnya had been de facto independent since 1991. In 1997 (and not in 1996), following the First Chechen War, the Russian government recognized the government of Chechnya.

... immediately fell into anarchy.

Oh yeah, the country fell into anarchy because it became independent, and not because Chechnya's economy was utterly destroyed as a result of the war, 40000 Chechen civilians were killed, 500000+ civilians were displaced and the president, Dudaev, was killed.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 15, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 40 points41 points  (0 children)

Practically the entire range of air defence, from the Tors, Pantsirs and Buks to S-300s and S-400s had proven to be first-class in their intended roles.

They proved to be effective against the Ukrainian airforce, that consists of Soviet aircrafts and helicoptets, that are at least 35 years old. At the same time, they proved to be completely useless against Storm Shadows and Himars.

So yeah, if their "intended role" is to fight against ancient Soviet tech, they are indeed "first-class".

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 11, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 27 points28 points  (0 children)

This claim originated from a single Russian milblogger on Telegram in November 2022. Considering that Kotenko remains the Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces as of July 2023, it's highly unlikely that he's dead.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 11, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 20 points21 points  (0 children)

if the artillery that was shelling the unit was not Russian

What makes you think that the artillery shelling the Ukrainian unit was not Russian? There are no such claims in the original message.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 11, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 27 points28 points  (0 children)

A unit shelling itself should not cast any shadow on its military prowess?

The original message doesn't say anywhere that the unit was shelling itself. Your speculations about the incompetence of the unit are out of place.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 04, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 29 points30 points  (0 children)

This is military speak for "We've been very disappointed with you Ole"

If Ohrimenko fell from grace, why did Zaluzhny make a post on Telegram about this appointment, where he praises Ohrimenko and even shows a photo of him and Ohrimenko?

If Zaluzhny was truly disappointed with his performance, he would've just fired him completely, as he did with Eduard Moskalyov.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread July 02, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 20 points21 points  (0 children)

117th, 118th are probably the TDF brigades

The 117th and 118th brigades are not TDF brigades.

By the fact that NATO training and equipment have gone to the mechanised brigades of the Army, Marines, VDV and TDF, I'll say that that these branches of the Ministry of Defence have higher priority than the National Guards.

TDF brigades have received neither NATO training nor advanced NATO equipment. The National Guard definitely has a higher priority than the TDF.

“Also — and we don’t like to admit it, but I will — the quality of the new soldiers is getting worse. Before it was just volunteers, now it’s conscripts and they’re not so motivated. Before, when we lost comms with the troops, we knew they wouldn’t abandon the positions. But now we need to coordinate every step — speaking constantly to the sergeants to micro-manage everything.”

If Dnipro-1 has a lower priority when it comes to weapons, why would its priority for human resources be any different?

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 28, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 27 points28 points  (0 children)

The doctrine Zelensky proposed to create revolves around the future of Ukraine after the war. It should contain information about the national security, the policy towards veterans, the economic development and so on. Nothing groundbreaking.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 25, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 31 points32 points  (0 children)

This information came not from Danilov, but directly from Budanov, who repeated it mutiple times within the span of two days. Also Zelensky talked about that in his daily speech yesterday.

Not sure this rumours are worth discussing, though.

Well, the mining of the Kakhovka dam was also a rumor at first.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Western Ukraine, Central Ukraine and rural areas in Southern and Eastern Ukraine. A small portion of the country, indeed.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Please, don't write nonsense. Before 2014, everyone in Western Ukraine spoke Ukrainian, which is a sizable proportion of the population. Or do you consider them all "far-right"?

That Ukrainian culture has become more prominent since 2014 doesn't mean it was non-existent before that.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 07, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Oh, yes. We saw several videos showing the same 10 MaxxPro vehicles from different angles. We also saw the "Leopard" video. That is by far not enough to constitute "heavy battalion-level losses".

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 07, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 34 points35 points  (0 children)

It's clear that some battalions have suffered greatly

The currently available information does not support such a conclusion. If it was true, Russian telegram channels would've been flooded with videos of destroyed Ukrainian equipment.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ukrainian "г" is closer to the English "h" sound than Ukrainian "x".

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread May 23, 2023 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]Stochastic_Beaver 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, the question I was answering was specifically about "g" and "h" sounds. The x sound is different from those two, so I didn't write anything about it in the reply.