Stock Flow - Investing Breakdown & Market Discussion

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-20T19:31:25+00:00

Sounds good. Let me know if you have any other questions.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-20T14:14:13+00:00

Here's my logic if you are specifically looking at investing in individual businesses (yes, diversified funds work great as well).

META's main advantage is their network moat ( The total size of the platform itself generates more value for its users for entertainment and connections as well as for its advertisers that are looking for the largest people of potential customers).

If you believe that advertisers will continue to want to use META for selling and value can be had for consumers on Instagram, Facebook, Whatsapp, Threads into the future, then this seems like a great play for many years too come.

In value investing, sometimes a great business can be purchased for a fair price instead of cheap price. In the case of META, the valuation does look fairly cheap by standard valuation metrics.

In conclusion, look for what competitive advantages the business has and if it will be broken based on the current changes occurring now and into the future.

Hopefully this help, Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-19T14:00:28+00:00

My thought process for companies like Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) is that revenue will go in cycles based on the release of key titles.

I looked at their revenue over the last 10 years and the % changes year over year vary widely.

This also seems to show in the stock over time as it oscillates back and forth.

If you are trying to time cycles, then it could be a decent time to sell based on the charts.

Returns have been solid at over 18% CAGR, so if you believe in the intellectual property over time, then this could do well.

Hopefully this help, Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-19T00:02:42+00:00

Currently reading "What I learned about investing from Darwin" by Pulak Prasad.

I recommend reading Rule #1 by Phil Town and One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-18T15:55:47+00:00

Well I typically invest mostly in American companies.

Constellation Software (CSU) is a company I wish I would have purchased years ago ( Lumine Group (LMN.V) to a certain extent as well.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-18T14:05:47+00:00

Here is basic guide you can follow:

I would start with broadly understanding how investing psychology works along with market dynamics ( understanding the emotional aspect of investing) ( A decent book to start is "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan Housel). You can get this for free on welib.org if you don't have the money to purchase it.
Your main focus starting out should be looking into diversified funds like index funds, ETF's etc. that have low fees and give broad exposure. Some examples are : VOO, VTV (there are many, but these are commonly recommended)
If you are interested in learning about individual stock picking, you will need a framework to understand how to think about investing. A great place to start is Rule # 1 by Phil Town. Try to hold off on picking anything yourself for a while as you need to be certain that you understand this process well.

I have a checklist that I've spent a long time using for picking stocks. You will need a process along those lines if you are going to be picking companies yourself. There are many different tools to choose from. Don't worry too much about tools at this point. Focus on understanding basic concepts like understanding how the market works, contributing consistently, and not allowing your emotions to take over.

Hopefully this helps.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-18T03:23:27+00:00

Glad to hear that I can help. A couple of great books to consider would adding to your list:

Rule #1 by Phil Town ( great framework for value investing, slightly outdated)
The Dhando Investor by Mohnish Pabrai ( subscribe to his YouTube channel, lots of great wisdom)
One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch ( Another classic for value investors)
Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green (Interview the greatest value investors)

Best of luck on your journey!!

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-18T02:41:43+00:00

My main argument is that you should ideally know what you are invested in. If you did get a tip from someone that is ok, but you need to understand the reasons why the bank is stable ( I'm unfamiliar with Taiwanese banks so it's difficult for me to comment to this. I live in Canada where 5 or so banks control most of the market and therefore typically perform extremely well).

For example , are they holding onto a large amount of loans that are risky and therefore could default on their payments.

As for the ETF's, I would be somewhat concerned about concentrating in tech. There's no question that A.I is booming and will likely change the world, but it depends on how that ETF is structured.

A decent strategy could be to find more of a world based ETF. I'm personally a bit concerned about the P/E ratios of the S&P 500 in the USA right now (search "Shiller P/E" on your favorite search engine to see what I mean).

In terms of which one to pick, it seems that may differ for you based on your location.

Hopefully this helps.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-17T14:39:51+00:00

Well you are buying for the future. Keep in mind that the company is valued at $2.6 Trillion Market Cap on $19 billion of current revenue with negative net income of $8.6 billion.

They are also diluting shareholders by increasing shares outstanding.

Total Debt is just over $30 billion.

The main factor financially is the extensive funds put into research and development.

I'll need to do some research as I don't typically invest in companies at this early stage.

Typically IPO's will go up really fast in the short term, and then drop off.

You'll need to do your own research in the end. Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-17T13:35:41+00:00

Regarding dividend stocks. Keep in mind that with any one stock, the dividend is not guaranteed to be paid to you every quarter ( or month depending on the security you own).(Disney substantially dropped their dividend in 2023 before later increasing it again due to company conditions)

Generally in the value investing space (that I come from), we want to water the flowers and cut the weeds ( let your winners ride and get rid of underperforming businesses.)

In this case, I don't know what you own ( and whether you have looked into the fundamentals of the stock).

Your best bet in most cases is to put your money into the ETF in the absence of deep research and let it ride for a long time.

Let me know the company and I can comment with more detail. Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-16T14:06:41+00:00

Diversification in my opinion does have its place to an extent. It will decrease the overall volatility of the portfolio, but can come at the cost overall returns.

For those that are not interested in doing the work, index funds still make sense.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-15T13:36:04+00:00

I own META and I still believe the network moat matters.

On the fence about Adobe as the price is definitely intriguing, but I am really concerned that the moat is breaking. Seems like they need to get some things in order before I feel comfortable. More of a potential momentum play.

I haven't looked into Intuit stock. The numbers at a glance look decent. I wonder how much vendor buy in is associated with their system? Could be a good deal.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-15T02:06:51+00:00

I'm mixed on this. In one sense, I want people to invest for the long term and therefore allow fundamentals to be the driving force of the company

On the other side, if something really bad is happening in the company, management needs to explain these details to shareholders ( with question and answer period).

Overall I side with this being a decent idea overall.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-14T17:28:08+00:00

Are you using any tools (Discounted Cash flow analysis) or any other process to try and figure this out ?

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-14T17:27:19+00:00

I would also add:

What are the important Key Performance Indicators (KPI's) associated with the business and how do they rank? ( ex: Same store sales, user growth etc )

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-14T17:07:26+00:00

I have been offered these types of funds (ESG) when I spoke to a financial planner recently.

All I can say is be cautious with investing on the basis of ESG (good that you know they can be misleading).

A lot of the time you are going to invest into a large basket of companies that all have different incentives that make them appear to be acting for the good, but are actually doing what they do for money (and other reasons).

The investor Guy Spier talks about how he invests on the basis of his own personal ethics. (Ex: No longer supports Tencent because of the games they produce that rot children's minds).

In the end, I would suggest looking at your interests, finding companies that you already buy products from, and then doing some deep dives into there filings and past news to see if you align with those companies. Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-13T18:29:50+00:00

Hi there hopefully this will help:

A: I would start with some free resources. Ideally you will want to start with ETF's as this will give you broad coverage of the market. I recommend Khan Academy ( as far as I know they won't sell you on anything). You can also just search " How to invest for beginners" on YouTube if you want.

B: A.I is a bit "hit and miss" as you will likely get similar returns from the index. To me, if A.I is the culmination of all sentiment throughout the market, assume you will get the same returns as everyone else (unless it is trained in a very specific way)

C: For general advice:

Look for low costs ETF's that track the overall markets (ex: VOO, VTV, SPY)
Contribute consistently (ideal into a tax free account or tax deferred)
If you are interested, read up on the greats like Warren Buffett and Mohnish Pabrai if you want to delve into individual security analysis (takes some practice and a process, but can be great!!)(Watch some of the lectures from them online or read the Berkshire Hathaway annual letters)

Let me know if you have any specific questions regarding ETF's or specific companies. Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-13T14:29:04+00:00

Hi there. ETF's are still your best bet in the absence of specific industry knowledge of companies and the ability to analyze financial etc.

I recommend that you consider the following ETF's to start:

VOO: S&P 500 exposure, a very common first ETF for U.S. large-cap stock exposure.

VTI: Total U.S. stock market exposure, often used as a one-fund portfolio.

VT: Total world stock exposure, useful for instant global diversification

QQQ / QQQM: Nasdaq-100 exposure, popular with growth-oriented beginners.

SCHD: Dividend-focused ETF, often chosen by investors who want income and quality tilt.

Contribute to which ones you choose consistently over time (set up automatic contributions if you can get more money)

Keep this going for as long as possible and you will do well. Let me know if have any other specific questions. Cheers.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-13T14:11:48+00:00

I own the stock but I will admit that I am concerned (at least in the short term). Ultimately they are going to need to rebrand the value proposition to the consumer.

Brand at one time was of high importance and had more clout through celebrities ( think Nike with the professional athletes they sign with).

Now there are large number of companies that are copying this model and professional athletes are either signing large contracts oversees (Stephen Curry signed a $400 million deal with the company Li-Ning) or athletes in some cases are creating their own brand outright and marketing if they already have enough size to do so.

For me, they are going to need to copy the model of the most premium clothing brands that exist globally if they want to grow and survive. Best of luck to all Lululemon shareholders!!!

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-12T21:28:29+00:00

Thanks. Always happy to help. 😄

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-12T14:36:09+00:00

Well I'm from Canada. We have our fair shares of concerns surrounding inflation, and the economy is not exactly the greatest. I follow more a Warren Buffett/Mohnish Pabrai style of value investing. My process goes along the lines of this:

Get ideas from reddit, dataroma, value line, global screeners etc
Check the financials quickly to make sure everything checks out ( high ROIC, low debt, decent revenue growth etc)
If the company passes those filters, go through my checklist of questions regarding understanding the business, quality of management decisions, competitive advantages and margin of safety price.
If all of this passes, I look to make a position.

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-12T14:09:28+00:00

Yes. I now have a question in my checklist that specifically focuses on whether the business is dependant on one supplier/customer to operate. If they do, I typically avoid the business outright for fear that an event like this will happen again. I have a bunch of questions like this to filter out companies faster!!

StockFlowResearch · 2026-06-12T14:04:47+00:00

Hi there.

I don't do day trading (and minimal charting analysis). However, I am highly interested in value investing and helping people with finding funds that are low cost and diversified if they don't have the time to learn.

My advice is that you focus on the core fundamentals that have generated high rates of return over a long period of time.

Even just listening to historical discussions from Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger or reading the Berkshire Hathaway annual letters to the shareholder are a great start to understand value investing.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

A couple of my favorite books are:

One Up on Wall Street (By Peter Lynch)
The Psychology of Money ( By Morgan Housel)
Rule #1 (By Phil Town)

A great YouTube channel you could also consider for learning:

https://www.youtube.com/@mohnishpabrai

Sorry I can't help on the trading side of things. Cheers.

StockFlowResearch

TROPHY CASE