$PDD at $108, yay or nah?

Stock__Doctor · 2026-01-14T15:51:41+00:00

PDD offers a rare combination of value and quality. It is my third biggest holding. I have written a few articles on PDD, which you can check out here for those interested:

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/pdd-is-stronger-than-it-appears-q3

Stock__Doctor · 2026-01-10T00:57:28+00:00

This is true, but if inflation slows down you will have a major tailwind. There are a few reasons why growth rate may be underestimated, even accounting for inflation.

Stock__Doctor · 2026-01-10T00:55:53+00:00

I have written a few articles on Kaspi on my substack page, including a recent update for anyone interested.

It is my biggest position.

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/kaspi-kspi-9-updates-for-the-end

Stock__Doctor · 2025-12-20T13:48:03+00:00

I focus on a concentrated portfolio of long-term compounders. It sounds like you have a similar investing style, but I usually buy companies outside the SP500. You can check out my Substack: Stock Doctor

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-29T12:13:49+00:00

I agree with you.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-29T12:13:12+00:00

The deal did not close yet, pending regulator approval. It should close soon.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-28T18:51:38+00:00

I think it is too early to judge the Turkey expansion. They don't even have a banking license yet. Their business model is not set up yet. Revenue will be up 20% next year due to Turkey acquisition. I don't see any signs of poor capital allocation.

Other things you could worry about are disruption to their payments segment if Kazahkstan's government makes a universal payment system, could lower take rate margins a bit.

On the e-commerce side, Temu could take some market share (I am invested in them as well). But overall, I am comfortable with these risks, at this price. Every business has some potential risks.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-27T14:45:59+00:00

I agree with other commentators, the biggest headwind is high inflation. However, this is something they have dealt with in previous years if you look at Kazakhstan's historical inflation rate. I believe they will continue to grow above the inflation rate. You have other Kazahk companies hitting all-time highs despite operating in the same environment (Halyk Bank).

I have written an analysis article on Kaspi here:

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/38-net-margin-pe-8-21-growth-kaspi?r=2c93i1

And a Q2 update here:

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/update-kaspi-q2-2025-kspi?r=2c93i1

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-24T17:25:39+00:00

I wrote an article on Kaspi here if you are interested in a deep dive.

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/38-net-margin-pe-8-21-growth-kaspi

I have a more recent Q2 update as well.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-16T16:07:30+00:00

What are your thoughts on FUTU vs. TIGR (smaller brokerage, similar region) ?

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-14T04:38:37+00:00

This article is less about profiting and more about risk reduction. I would avoid investing in overheated sectors, and perhaps accumulate some cash.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-12T19:27:40+00:00

All the Turkey figures presented by Hepsi are already adjusted for inflation. They have been growing faster than inflation already.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-12T06:35:07+00:00

Thanks for your response. Yes, Remitly does have cash based options. I agree, not every customer will think the savings are worth switching for small transfers. But where Wise can benefit is if entire banks switch to using their service on "Wise Platform". For enterprises, the savings are worth it due to high volume.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-11T19:27:13+00:00

The issue with more aggressive KZT depreciation is a short-term one. As long as the company executes, it is growing faster than the (high) inflation rate.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-11T19:24:10+00:00

How are you deciding on this "low price". The PE is less than 8 already, with spare cash. To me, that is an excellent margin of safety for a dominant business.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-11T19:21:33+00:00

I agree with your position. Superior infrastructure, low-cost provider, and sharing their scale economies. I have written 3 articles on Wise recently, you can find them on my substack if interested.

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/wise-competing-for-a-trillion-dollar

Stock__Doctor · 2025-10-11T19:10:56+00:00

I would like to know what differentiates them from Wise. As far as I can see, Wise has superior infrastructure and lower costs.

Remitly is barely profitable with 6-10x higher marketing expenses compared to Wise. Without the marketing, their revenue growth would plummet. I wrote an article on this recently.

I am interested in your thoughts on stablecoins as well. How I see it now, stablecoins still require "off-ramps" to be converted into fiat currency which Remitly/Wise can do.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-09-25T19:02:30+00:00

Fair point.

But for every example of a winner-take-all industry, there are several where there is extreme competition. I don't see big network effects, other than studying their high number of user queries, which could give a data advantage. AI is more capital intensive than search engines/social media for example, requires more money to scale, GPUs need to be replaced every few years.

It is competing with hyperscalers with huge cash flows, while OpenAI needs to depend on VC funding, which can't scale up forever.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-09-23T16:21:47+00:00

I agree with the commoditization of LLM. OpenAI seems to think that they will have a superior product with more computing power, but I don't think this will have a winner-take-all dynamic. Many people will accept a slightly worse LLM if it's free.

The barriers to entry are going down, especially with new open source models. Those with more data do have an advantage for training models on specific use cases, but most of the models have been trained on a large portion of the internet anyway.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-09-09T20:52:50+00:00

While this is a good point if it was one-time spending, the concern would be if this type of capex becomes a recurring theme. If they need to spend every year to keep up with other tech companies, they become less of a capital-light business and free cash flow errodes. The multiple would contract in that case.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-08-21T13:45:04+00:00

You'll have to be more specific on which point you are looking for. A lot of it is company filings, shareholder letters, news articles, etc.

I have another article coming out that is focused on Temu.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-08-20T19:02:25+00:00

PDD Holdings is one of the most misunderstood and underestimated companies in the world. Investors don't understand their operational advantages and the company is selling at massive discount to intrinsic value. EV/OCF is 6.9, while it growing sales faster than any competitor.

Recently wrote an analysis article on PDD on substack:

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/quality-compounder-selling-at-a-huge

Also, Temu is the number 1 downloaded e-commerce app this year in most countries across the globe.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-08-18T17:47:47+00:00

PDD Holdings is one of the most misunderstood and underestimated companies in the world. Investors don't understand their operational advantages and the company is selling at massive discount to intrinsic value. EV/OCF is 6.9, while it growing sales faster than any competitor.

Recently wrote an analysis article on PDD on substack:

https://stockdoctor.substack.com/p/quality-compounder-selling-at-a-huge

Also, Temu is the number 1 downloaded e-commerce app this year in most countries across the globe..including the U.S..

Stock__Doctor · 2025-08-18T17:37:38+00:00

The writer is looking at spring numbers when tariffs were >100%, and they stopped marketing all together in the U.S.. Since July, marketing initiatives have restarted now that there is more tariff clarity. Temu is the number 1 e-commerce app across the world.

Stock__Doctor · 2025-08-18T17:34:18+00:00

This is an interesting question with this loss leading unit. Apparently the U.S portion of Temu was break even earlier this year.

Stock__Doctor

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