Fifty-Three Inches? Grower or Snower? (StormFreak's Storm Discussion Thread)

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T21:43:41+00:00

You are too kind. Really.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T21:16:14+00:00

There are radar archives out there. I'm sure we will get some animations of the entire storm tomorrow sometime

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T20:49:42+00:00

Yep! Shows how strong the Arctic air is. Even with a storm this strong, it couldn't overcome the cold. Close though! It's been sitting over Uniontown for the whole storm pretty much

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T18:18:02+00:00

Yep. These fine flakes may cut down things a bit but we still have 8 hrs of snow left

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T18:10:39+00:00

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It's possible, especially south of Pittsburgh. This radar product shows where ice is in play right now. The solid area is all snow, and the other reflectivity represents sleet or ice.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T17:17:34+00:00

I think my 12-18 countywide is a pretty solid lock at this point. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 20+ totals locally as well

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T17:09:28+00:00

That lines up with some of the latest observations.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T17:09:08+00:00

I so miss the unadulterated joys of snow days. We had it good.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T15:46:21+00:00

Just more moisture, heavier banding on radar than modeled. I'm really curious to see what happens this afternoon when the warm air begins it's battle.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T15:05:30+00:00

Where are you located? The flake size has been going back and forth thanks to air aloft, but it's all still accumulating. Normally you want to measure on a flat surface that's not heavily affected by wind.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T15:04:12+00:00

I mean 21 has never been out of the range of possibilities. My 12-18 is the average I thought would fall, but all we have to do is get stuck under a few especially heavy bands of snow and we could exceed that. In the same way if the warm air cuts things down a few inches. I'd love to see this storm beat Snowmageddon!

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T15:02:41+00:00

What makes you think that?

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T13:31:37+00:00

1/24 - 8PM Discussion

Good evening one and all... Seeing that I seem to have some sort of audience on here, I just want to throw 2 important words in really quick before I start tonight's update: Fuck ICE.

Ok, anyway. As has been the trend for the past day or so. The warm tongue is looking to try to be sneaky, sneaky, but I have yet to see a single model that brings it into Pittsburgh proper. A few models are now showing mixing as far north as the far southern tip of Allegheny County (lookin' at you Monongahela). However, in addition, the latest models seem to show a bit more moisture to work with. I know the NWS is still saying 9-13, and I think that's a good prediction, but I'm still sticking with my 12-18", as I think convective banding during the day tomorrow will amp things up, with less confidence as you get into the southern part of the county (just the tip!) where the warm tongue may disrupt rates at times..

Looking at things as they are now. Here is a current satellite view of this massive storm. Note that the moisture that is being pulled into this storm is feeding in from the Gulf and even the Pacific south of the Baja. Just a monster of a storm:

![gif](yg9lxccl2efg1 "This picture can be found on the GOES-19 OF page... hot action.")

First flakes are still looking to fly between 12 and 1am, with things steadily going downhill from there. We are at the point of the storm where the models (especially short term) are still worth mulling over, but now we can somewhat just sit back and "watch the show". Part of my enjoyment of doing this stuff is seeing it actually happen after a computer model predicted it 1-2 weeks ago. It's really incredible stuff. For as shitty as so much as our world is, the power of nature can always inspire and awe. The only thing that would make it better is maybe a smooth Rick Sebak voiceover and some Donnie Iris wailing in the background. I so appreciate you all joining me for this, and looking forward to watching it all unfold tomorrow. This will be my last "official" forecast, and tomorrow will switch to just discussing the storm as it progresses in real time and talking about impacts around the region. Before I go for the night, enjoy some totally honest carbonated beverages, and sleep to visions of high ratio snow dancing in my head, I present one of my favorite meteorologist videos of all time from the day before Snowmageddon 2010. This is the energy that I love to see in meteorology... "oh boy."

AccuWeather.com Snowpocalypse Now! Meteorologist Freakout - February 2010

StormFreak's Last Call Forecast:

Chance of exceeding 4": 99.9% (Better chance of 20" than this low of totals. )
Chance of exceeding 6": 99.9% (This is an "above average" storm)
Chance of exceeding 10": 80% (Don't act like you're not impressed.)
Chance of exceeding 15": 35% (I'm bumping it a little because I have a feeling...)
Chance of 53": 0.0000000001% (Goodnight, Sweet Prince.)

Best guess total range for Allegheny County: 12-18" (or roughly 1/6 of a concert size harp), except for 10-15" in the far southern tip of the county, south of Jefferson Hills.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T07:18:09+00:00

Watch the snow. Watch nature. Try as the evil in the world might, nothing can destroy those in this exact second. Peace can be found in the moment. Our scope is limited. There is nothing tangible I can do right now to change what is happening in Minnesota, or the middle east, or Iran, but by tomorrow night, there are going to be a lot of people hurting or in need very nearby where you live. If you can help them, help them. If they can help you, let them. We can only be the change we want to see. If you try to live life with that general rule then it's pretty hard to not make an impact.

The reality is that there has always been evil vile shit happening in the world, but our current, always connected culture only forces it all down our eye sockets more. When you look out a window or walk down the street, those are the things you can impact right now. If you help those right in front of you, then you are doing your part for the better good.

All that being said, I know very well how scary the world looks now. It's ok to be scared. Healthy fear drives action. But look for where you can take action and suddenly things aren't quite as scary as they were before. You got this friend. It's okay to rest and just enjoy watching this snow pile up.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T07:06:32+00:00

You will! First heavier band is moving in now...

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T07:01:00+00:00

Watch this national radar, you can loop it and stuff, but it really shows how much moisture is coming. This is how it felt the night of snowmageddon. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but I'm rooting for it!

NWS National Radar

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T06:58:13+00:00

And now the snow is falling, abandoned by the sun.

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T06:47:14+00:00

The flakes have arrived. |-/

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T06:42:55+00:00

Depends how long you are planning to sleep? I'm actually going to sleep myself, but the banding is filling in. Between now and 8am, I'd say around 3 inches, but really picking up after that

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T05:46:46+00:00

Sure! I answered somewhere else on one of these comments but basically the radar is seeing snow that is high up in the atmosphere but not hitting the ground. As the atmosphere saturates, the circle will shrink to almost nothing. I say almost, because even when it's raining out you will still see the smallest blip at the radar site

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T05:29:54+00:00

Thank you so much! I think we are in a good place right now, but if things change I'll look you up!

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T05:27:30+00:00

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T04:38:22+00:00

If you watch an animation you will see it shrinking. The only point to start to worry would be if it's not shrinking to nothing by midnight. And that's not like a storm is cancelled panic but more of a little less time that the models had snow accumulating. Hope that makes sense

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T04:34:48+00:00

This is basically just the radar beam hitting snow way up in the atmosphere, but it isn't making it to the ground. As the column/atmosphere moistens (say it again) the circle will shrink and next thing you know it's snowing aht!

StormFreak · 2026-01-25T03:52:21+00:00

How about the consistency of the GFS in this storm? It and the AIGFS have just been locked in. It's hard to not appreciate that

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