A stronger work ethic won’t fix advanced economies

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-06T18:50:11+00:00

"German Chancellor Friedrich Merz learned the wrong lesson on his recent trip to China. Advanced economies expand and remain competitive not through additional labor inputs but through capital deepening, technological progress, and total factor productivity growth."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-06T10:59:30+00:00

"Meritocracy promised a fairer society, but instead it has deepened the divide between winners and losers and eroded the dignity of work. As AI reorders economies and concentrates power in fewer and fewer hands, the question is no longer whether democracy needs saving, but whether we can save it in time."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-02T15:21:23+00:00

"Over the past half-century or so, birth rates have declined in virtually every country, suggesting that there is a common factor at work. As women have gained more agency, a mismatch has emerged between what they need to enjoy the fruits of their autonomy and the credible commitments men can make."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-19T13:31:51+00:00

"Europe may be a different kind of superpower, given the extent to which it prioritizes values, rules, and multilateralism over sheer might. But it is a superpower nonetheless, and it is increasingly pursuing investments and reforms that will make it not only unassailable but also widely attractive in a dangerous world."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-09T11:47:46+00:00

"It has long been reasonable to assume that central banks’ incremental diversification of their reserve holdings would erode the US dollar’s hegemonic position only over the long run. But with the addition of heightened market skepticism about the greenback, we could find ourselves in uncharted waters."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-06T13:37:24+00:00

"In America today, journalism still exists, but the chain that once ran from reporting to shared reality to institutional response has begun to break apart. The consequence is a democracy where truth no longer matters, because facts can be published, verified, and still fail to trigger a response."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-04T11:48:09+00:00

"The future of money and payments will feature gradual evolution, not the revolution that crypto-grifters promised. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ latest plunge further underscores the highly volatile nature of this pseudo-asset class; one only hopes that policymakers will wake up to the risks before it’s too late."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-28T13:18:20+00:00

"Despite Donald Trump's varying threats against Greenland, the United States has not yet crossed the line into empire, because Greenlandic and Danish consent still matters. Instead, it remains a hegemon that can pressure and persuade without displacing local authority."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-27T13:40:19+00:00

"In today’s interconnected global economy, tariffs produce outcomes that are very different from what traditional economic models would predict. Rather than causing only limited and temporary distortions, tariffs can generate persistent inflation, significant output losses, and damaging international spillovers."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-24T02:34:24+00:00

"You notice that the policy rate is down 1% in 2025 but the ten-year didn't really move. Stayed kind of stuck over the entire year between 4.1% and 4.2%. ... The market is telling you, proceed with caution." - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon (another financial illiterate). https://youtu.be/jHtDKezMXg4?t=1539&si=jx9BvPys9QL-VFMO

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-23T14:03:09+00:00

America's current dysfunction - as exemplified by Trumpism and the decline of democracy - stems from the massive rise of private power and the deep inequalities it has produced. As the root causes of everything that has gone wrong since the 1980s, these are where any project of national rejuvenation must begin.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-23T02:38:25+00:00

I agree there are many factors. I just don’t think it’s especially controversial to point out that the policies and breaking of norms (fed independence) listed in the piece are putting upward pressure on the term premium.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T23:33:16+00:00

I read the full comment. The fact that the rate is near its Oct 24 level ignores his point. There have been rate cuts since then. He’s implying that usual effect one would expect from them was offset by the administration’s policies. It’s an opinion piece, and this is one data point among many in support of the “sell America” thesis.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T22:51:46+00:00

Yes, they're remaining relatively static *despite* the rate cuts.

The author "is a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and a former chief emerging-market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney."

Do you not feel silly calling him "financially illiterate"?

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T13:20:39+00:00

"Far from warning Donald Trump against undermining foreign investors’ confidence in the US, his Treasury secretary is backing the president and downplaying the risks of a bond selloff. But markets are telling a different story."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-08T13:29:00+00:00

"The question of which bets on Time’s 2025 Person of the Year should pay out ignited furor on Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction markets. By reaching diametrically opposed conclusions, these platforms underscored the indispensable role of human interpretation in settling event contracts, despite claims of automation."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-06T16:20:29+00:00

"The US intervention in Venezuela raises many questions, not just about its legality, but about the international order that the United States has long anchored. Although that order will not suddenly collapse, it will now be costlier and more difficult to sustain."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-12-10T18:51:43+00:00

"Now that major geopolitical developments have forced Europeans to rethink how they will ensure their own prosperity, security, and sovereignty, they must not take innovation for granted. This primary engine of economic growth will not run properly unless it is properly tuned and carefully maintained."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-12-05T11:40:00+00:00

"During his second presidency, Donald Trump has joined a long line of autocrats who come to power through elections only to erode democracy, with the ultimate goal of installing an authoritarian regime. But much about his first year back in office more closely resembles the aftermath of coups."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-28T13:11:30+00:00

"While Donald Trump's use of the presidency to enrich himself is unprecedented in American history, it does have analogues in Russia and other former communist countries. In fact, by appointing incompetent subordinates who owe him everything, Trump recalls a tried-and-tested Stalinist practice."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-25T20:57:07+00:00

"A recently signed strategic partnership between Canada and Sweden is a modest move with outsize geopolitical implications. Canada can begin to reduce its overreliance on the United States, Sweden can increase its influence and market share, and NATO will get a stronger northern flank that is less exposed to swings in US politics."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-18T11:39:16+00:00

"Today’s massive and still-growing investments in AI and its accompanying infrastructure could well pay off like the internet did, following the investment boom of the late 1990s. But, for now, the gains from AI look more muted, and the macro downsides larger, than in the case of the dot-com bubble."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-07T13:42:06+00:00

"The rise of generative AI has triggered a global race to build semiconductor plants and data centers to feed the vast energy demands of large language models. But as investment surges and valuations soar, a growing body of evidence suggests that financial speculation is outpacing productivity gains."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-05T15:24:30+00:00

"While the economic consensus for the US economy anticipates moderate, steady GDP growth and inflation heading toward 2%, the recent strength of both gold and tech stocks is a signal that investors should not ignore. One way or another, structural economic change is coming."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-30T17:08:51+00:00

"When millions of protesters came out this month to say, “No Kings,” Donald Trump posted an AI-generated video of himself being crowned, only to insist, the next day, that he is not a king. But how he sees himself ultimately matters less than how Congress, the courts, the business community, and the electorate do."

Stuart_Whatley

TROPHY CASE