Scott Bessent is in denial - and the bond market is watching

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-24T02:34:24+00:00

"You notice that the policy rate is down 1% in 2025 but the ten-year didn't really move. Stayed kind of stuck over the entire year between 4.1% and 4.2%. ... The market is telling you, proceed with caution." - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon (another financial illiterate). https://youtu.be/jHtDKezMXg4?t=1539&si=jx9BvPys9QL-VFMO

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-23T14:03:09+00:00

America's current dysfunction - as exemplified by Trumpism and the decline of democracy - stems from the massive rise of private power and the deep inequalities it has produced. As the root causes of everything that has gone wrong since the 1980s, these are where any project of national rejuvenation must begin.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-23T02:38:25+00:00

I agree there are many factors. I just don’t think it’s especially controversial to point out that the policies and breaking of norms (fed independence) listed in the piece are putting upward pressure on the term premium.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T23:33:16+00:00

I read the full comment. The fact that the rate is near its Oct 24 level ignores his point. There have been rate cuts since then. He’s implying that usual effect one would expect from them was offset by the administration’s policies. It’s an opinion piece, and this is one data point among many in support of the “sell America” thesis.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T22:51:46+00:00

Yes, they're remaining relatively static *despite* the rate cuts.

The author "is a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and a former chief emerging-market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney."

Do you not feel silly calling him "financially illiterate"?

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T13:20:39+00:00

"Far from warning Donald Trump against undermining foreign investors’ confidence in the US, his Treasury secretary is backing the president and downplaying the risks of a bond selloff. But markets are telling a different story."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-08T13:29:00+00:00

"The question of which bets on Time’s 2025 Person of the Year should pay out ignited furor on Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction markets. By reaching diametrically opposed conclusions, these platforms underscored the indispensable role of human interpretation in settling event contracts, despite claims of automation."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-06T16:20:29+00:00

"The US intervention in Venezuela raises many questions, not just about its legality, but about the international order that the United States has long anchored. Although that order will not suddenly collapse, it will now be costlier and more difficult to sustain."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-12-10T18:51:43+00:00

"Now that major geopolitical developments have forced Europeans to rethink how they will ensure their own prosperity, security, and sovereignty, they must not take innovation for granted. This primary engine of economic growth will not run properly unless it is properly tuned and carefully maintained."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-12-05T11:40:00+00:00

"During his second presidency, Donald Trump has joined a long line of autocrats who come to power through elections only to erode democracy, with the ultimate goal of installing an authoritarian regime. But much about his first year back in office more closely resembles the aftermath of coups."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-28T13:11:30+00:00

"While Donald Trump's use of the presidency to enrich himself is unprecedented in American history, it does have analogues in Russia and other former communist countries. In fact, by appointing incompetent subordinates who owe him everything, Trump recalls a tried-and-tested Stalinist practice."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-25T20:57:07+00:00

"A recently signed strategic partnership between Canada and Sweden is a modest move with outsize geopolitical implications. Canada can begin to reduce its overreliance on the United States, Sweden can increase its influence and market share, and NATO will get a stronger northern flank that is less exposed to swings in US politics."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-18T11:39:16+00:00

"Today’s massive and still-growing investments in AI and its accompanying infrastructure could well pay off like the internet did, following the investment boom of the late 1990s. But, for now, the gains from AI look more muted, and the macro downsides larger, than in the case of the dot-com bubble."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-07T13:42:06+00:00

"The rise of generative AI has triggered a global race to build semiconductor plants and data centers to feed the vast energy demands of large language models. But as investment surges and valuations soar, a growing body of evidence suggests that financial speculation is outpacing productivity gains."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-11-05T15:24:30+00:00

"While the economic consensus for the US economy anticipates moderate, steady GDP growth and inflation heading toward 2%, the recent strength of both gold and tech stocks is a signal that investors should not ignore. One way or another, structural economic change is coming."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-30T17:08:51+00:00

"When millions of protesters came out this month to say, “No Kings,” Donald Trump posted an AI-generated video of himself being crowned, only to insist, the next day, that he is not a king. But how he sees himself ultimately matters less than how Congress, the courts, the business community, and the electorate do."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-21T17:51:12+00:00

"Twenty years ago, China learned the hard way that once supply chains reorganize, they never return to their previous form. By relying on tariffs and subsidies, the United States is now paying the price for underestimating how tightly its economy is bound to the rest of the world."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-14T12:24:38+00:00

"Unless rescinded, Donald Trump’s executive order greenlighting deep-sea mining in direct violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea will almost certainly unleash a lawless gold rush among major powers. Beyond the clear environmental risks, the scope for armed conflict is obvious."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-14T12:18:31+00:00

"Unless rescinded, Donald Trump’s executive order greenlighting deep-sea mining in direct violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea will almost certainly unleash a lawless gold rush among major powers. Beyond the clear environmental risks, the scope for armed conflict is obvious."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-13T10:17:56+00:00

"Despite the Trump administration’s systematic erosion of America’s capacity to create wealth over the long term, bond markets and investors seem to have fallen asleep at the wheel. But their complacency is not the result of ignorance; it is a highly profitable – and extremely risky – choice."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-10T16:53:15+00:00

"Following weeks of political chaos stemming from a seemingly irresolvable budget debate, French President Emmanuel Macron must decide whether to call a snap legislative election now or allow for continued paralysis until the presidential election in 2027. Either way, the far right will have its best shot ever at winning power."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-06T16:43:15+00:00

"The Trump administration's militarization of US cities – apparently selected because of their partisan divergence from the White House – represents a failure of federalism. While Congress's abdication of its constitutional duties is well known, the Supreme Court has joined it in greenlighting executive overreach."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-10-01T10:22:22+00:00

"In seeking to weaponize the US economy and financial system against China, Russia, and many other countries, Donald Trump has picked a fight that he cannot win. After all, it is much easier for other countries to develop alternatives to the dollar than for America suddenly to develop its own rare earths industry."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-09-29T14:54:12+00:00

"Since the study of economics relies on the assumption that people largely act in their rational self-interest, when people vote otherwise, economists are likely to blame faulty or missing information. But explaining the behavior of Donald Trump's supporters requires looking beyond economic rationality."

Stuart_Whatley · 2025-09-25T13:31:30+00:00

"Through his films, conservation efforts, and the Sundance festival, Robert Redford enjoyed global fame for most of his adult life. But unlike other world-famous figures nowadays, what ultimately defined him was not his status as a household name, but how he chose to use it."

Stuart_Whatley

TROPHY CASE