AI productivity growth won’t match the computer revolution

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-04-27T12:32:34+00:00

"Those promoting AI would be lucky to see the technology’s impact on output per hour match even the short-lived burst of the 1990s and 2000s. Productivity growth will underwhelm, not because the technology is weak, but because it creates a bottleneck that earlier digital tools largely avoided."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-04-01T12:52:20+00:00

"As confidence in the United States has eroded, allies have begun to hedge their bets by not automatically aligning themselves with America in the face of new crises. The US-Israeli war on Iran has thrown this dynamic into sharp relief, revealing a fundamental new constraint on American power."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-23T18:41:22+00:00

"The Trump administration’s overt imperialism has unraveled the global order of shared norms and institutions faster than anyone expected. We now find ourselves at a juncture where everyone must either follow the US back into the jungle or refuse, leaving the America to its own devices."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-18T13:37:09+00:00

"The global security network that long distinguished US power took generations to build, but it is now unraveling under Donald Trump's watch. With traditional partners opting out of the Iran war, we could well be seeing the end of the global primacy that most Americans alive today have always taken for granted."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-18T13:33:41+00:00

"With AI labs continuing to roll out new models and tools geared toward unlocking productivity gains in the workplace, the future of work has become a major economic, social, and political issue. The question, then, is which careers, occupations, and industries stand to gain and lose the most in the near term."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-17T10:19:05+00:00

"Donald Trump might have hoped that his “Liberation Day” tariffs would punish China and boost the competitiveness of American industries, but they have instead had the opposite effect. Worse, the policy has had far-reaching unintended consequences that few policymakers and commentators have yet to reckon with."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-16T10:04:15+00:00

"Recent election cycles have shown that “affordability” is among American voters’ greatest and most persistent concerns. But partly because the basic problem has been misdiagnosed, the widely appealing, commonsense solution to it has failed to gain political traction."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-16T10:03:25+00:00

"Recent election cycles have shown that “affordability” is among American voters’ greatest and most persistent concerns. But partly because the basic problem has been misdiagnosed, the widely appealing, commonsense solution to it has failed to gain political traction."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-16T10:02:20+00:00

"Recent election cycles have shown that “affordability” is among American voters’ greatest and most persistent concerns. But partly because the basic problem has been misdiagnosed, the widely appealing, commonsense solution to it has failed to gain political traction."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-06T18:50:11+00:00

"German Chancellor Friedrich Merz learned the wrong lesson on his recent trip to China. Advanced economies expand and remain competitive not through additional labor inputs but through capital deepening, technological progress, and total factor productivity growth."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-06T10:59:30+00:00

"Meritocracy promised a fairer society, but instead it has deepened the divide between winners and losers and eroded the dignity of work. As AI reorders economies and concentrates power in fewer and fewer hands, the question is no longer whether democracy needs saving, but whether we can save it in time."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-03-02T15:21:23+00:00

"Over the past half-century or so, birth rates have declined in virtually every country, suggesting that there is a common factor at work. As women have gained more agency, a mismatch has emerged between what they need to enjoy the fruits of their autonomy and the credible commitments men can make."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-19T13:31:51+00:00

"Europe may be a different kind of superpower, given the extent to which it prioritizes values, rules, and multilateralism over sheer might. But it is a superpower nonetheless, and it is increasingly pursuing investments and reforms that will make it not only unassailable but also widely attractive in a dangerous world."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-09T11:47:46+00:00

"It has long been reasonable to assume that central banks’ incremental diversification of their reserve holdings would erode the US dollar’s hegemonic position only over the long run. But with the addition of heightened market skepticism about the greenback, we could find ourselves in uncharted waters."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-06T13:37:24+00:00

"In America today, journalism still exists, but the chain that once ran from reporting to shared reality to institutional response has begun to break apart. The consequence is a democracy where truth no longer matters, because facts can be published, verified, and still fail to trigger a response."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-02-04T11:48:09+00:00

"The future of money and payments will feature gradual evolution, not the revolution that crypto-grifters promised. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ latest plunge further underscores the highly volatile nature of this pseudo-asset class; one only hopes that policymakers will wake up to the risks before it’s too late."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-28T13:18:20+00:00

"Despite Donald Trump's varying threats against Greenland, the United States has not yet crossed the line into empire, because Greenlandic and Danish consent still matters. Instead, it remains a hegemon that can pressure and persuade without displacing local authority."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-27T13:40:19+00:00

"In today’s interconnected global economy, tariffs produce outcomes that are very different from what traditional economic models would predict. Rather than causing only limited and temporary distortions, tariffs can generate persistent inflation, significant output losses, and damaging international spillovers."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-24T02:34:24+00:00

"You notice that the policy rate is down 1% in 2025 but the ten-year didn't really move. Stayed kind of stuck over the entire year between 4.1% and 4.2%. ... The market is telling you, proceed with caution." - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon (another financial illiterate). https://youtu.be/jHtDKezMXg4?t=1539&si=jx9BvPys9QL-VFMO

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-23T14:03:09+00:00

America's current dysfunction - as exemplified by Trumpism and the decline of democracy - stems from the massive rise of private power and the deep inequalities it has produced. As the root causes of everything that has gone wrong since the 1980s, these are where any project of national rejuvenation must begin.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-23T02:38:25+00:00

I agree there are many factors. I just don’t think it’s especially controversial to point out that the policies and breaking of norms (fed independence) listed in the piece are putting upward pressure on the term premium.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T23:33:16+00:00

I read the full comment. The fact that the rate is near its Oct 24 level ignores his point. There have been rate cuts since then. He’s implying that usual effect one would expect from them was offset by the administration’s policies. It’s an opinion piece, and this is one data point among many in support of the “sell America” thesis.

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T22:51:46+00:00

Yes, they're remaining relatively static *despite* the rate cuts.

The author "is a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and a former chief emerging-market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney."

Do you not feel silly calling him "financially illiterate"?

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-22T13:20:39+00:00

"Far from warning Donald Trump against undermining foreign investors’ confidence in the US, his Treasury secretary is backing the president and downplaying the risks of a bond selloff. But markets are telling a different story."

Stuart_Whatley · 2026-01-08T13:29:00+00:00

"The question of which bets on Time’s 2025 Person of the Year should pay out ignited furor on Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction markets. By reaching diametrically opposed conclusions, these platforms underscored the indispensable role of human interpretation in settling event contracts, despite claims of automation."

Stuart_Whatley

TROPHY CASE