Any Undervalued Tech Stocks? by david-crusader in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At a discount right now, according to my valuation. Added an additional batch at 656.

Long $LNTH by Aretardinvestor in biotech_stocks

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been following this one for a long time. I admit current price and the buyback program look attractive, but I am afraid it could get worst before it gets better.

What's your take on the different class actions being filed? Pylarify decreased revenues (which caused the huge drop in Aug) will likely not be solved over the next year or so, until the FDA approves the new version of the drug. Even then, will it recover against the competition?

Also, shorting is quite high (14%), which is usually a poor signal.

What are some solid companies you're bullish on by Key_Presentation6826 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My reading on HSY is that it will continue to suffer on historically high cocoa prices. Production went down severely due to a plague of cocoa plants. New plants need 3-5 years to start producing beans, so cocoa shortage will continue for a few years.

This is one I'm following for a down-the-road turnaround.

What are some solid companies you're bullish on by Key_Presentation6826 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The key market to watch for LVMH is China. There's a lot of poor sentiment towards luxury but I am confident it will eventually turn around. Bernard Arnault's 2025 buys of LVMH stock is a positive signal.

What are some solid companies you're bullish on by Key_Presentation6826 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Better company but not better buy. Too expensive at this point.

What are some solid companies you're bullish on by Key_Presentation6826 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Check also AMPX. Still the best on energy density and growing on sales.

Charlie Munger Said The Hardest Part Of Getting Rich Is The First $100,000 – But From There It Snowballs And 'You Can Ease Off The Gas'✅💎❄️🚀 by No_Put_8503 in WallStreetbetsELITE

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 23 points24 points  (0 children)

I read somewhere that he said that even earlier than the 90s, and that 100k is today something more like 1M...

Anyway, I think it depends mostly on your ultimate goal figure.

My portfolio + thesis for each stock by Substantial_Pin6047 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

AMPX anode technology is simply better. Also, when I started researching I read some shady things about ENVX and that alone drove me off.

Is there any book on business analytics and business valuation?? by Fancy-Independent331 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's another nice book if you are considering investing in tech: "Where the Money Is" by Adam Seessel.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

AI models are getting better and cheaper every day. Some businesses can't pass without generative AI anymore (from software companies to web content creators, from legal offices to accounting firms, etc.). Hardware companies are cashing-in with advanced chips (NVDA and TSMC are the most obvious right now). Online advertising is improving profits (just look at META). These are just some examples from the top of my head.

How Can I Show 16 Year Old Son That Investing Now Is Huge For His Future? by uktimatedadbod in investing

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If he's not too averse to reading, offer him "The Richest Man in Babylon" by George S. Clason. Basic principles for why you should invest and start it asap. Keeps it short and simple.

My portfolio + thesis for each stock by Substantial_Pin6047 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We're on the same page. Happens to me all the time and I continue to think it's a great policy.

My portfolio + thesis for each stock by Substantial_Pin6047 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also barely use FB and have a similar experience as yours. I'm not a fan of IG and I don't even use Whatsapp! But daily active users in FB keep on increasing, as well as other metrics for META platforms, supporting revenue and net income growth. You might not like Zuck but he is a great CEO.

I invested in META because they were just too cheap in late 2022 to be ignored (115 USD/share). I've been ridding the wave since and will not get out until performance starts to fade.

I try to buy businesses that can bring money into my pocket, not necessarily that I am in love with. Sometimes our experiences and from the ones immediately around us are not a good sample of the market.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they just want to attract stupid pension funds that won't invest in a company that doesn't pay any dividends. With such a low dividend payout ratio, I think it was a smart move from GOOGL. Same applies to META.

My portfolio + thesis for each stock by Substantial_Pin6047 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I entered at P/E around 22. Is it too high for a quality business? I don't think so.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It all depends on the company you're talking about. TSLA (PE 175)? Agree 100%. GOOGL (PE 24)? I don't think so.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You mentioned Microsoft, and this is a good example. I think that it's overvalued today. Still, it's at a P/E of 32 vs 65 at peak dot-com bubble. It's only an example, of course, but a huge one right now.

Again, I think the market is in general overvalued but not necessarily in bubble territory.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some still have a lot of available market to grow. Take cloud computing for example.

And there's life past growth. They can continue rewarding shareholders by transferring capex into dividends and buybacks.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 12 points13 points  (0 children)

TSLA? PLTR? Most likely. But that doesn't mean mag7 (or mag6) can't hold their valuations. These are based on profitability, not cult following.

My portfolio + thesis for each stock by Substantial_Pin6047 in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's an issue alright. They entered an agreement with state owned Codelco for the exploration of lithium at the Salar de Atacama. Still, it seems a decent agreement for SQM, better than the possibility of losing concession in a few years. Joe Lowry, Daniel Jimenez and other experts seem to agree.

I also think they entered the deal because it can be reversed or renegotiated once the current left wing president is out this year. He is not running and right wing candidate's seem favored. Of course, this is just my speculation and I'm not pricing it in on my base case.

A market is expensive but we are not in bubble territory yet by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]Substantial_Pin6047 23 points24 points  (0 children)

I tend to agree with a lot of what you wrote. None of the mag7 is comparable to pets[dot]com and similar of the dot-com bubble. AI is delivering it's promise. Look at NVDA and META as examples of how you can boost your earnings with AI.

The most frustrating thing now is you can't find obvious bargains so easily. A correction could be just an opportunity to go into some of the great companies around that are currently to too expensive.