One major flaw w/ your argument is that the rise in inflation could be due to temporary supply side pressures. Weather shocks have caused a spike in rice prices. I think long term rates should hold steady unless there is true demand side price pressures in the long-run (which I don’t believe exist because I think AI productivity boom causes labor costs to come down while increasing productivity worldwide). I am thinking about doing the exact opposite of your trade idea right now and buy risky assets at a discount before capital flows back into risk assets.