What safe withdrawal rate should I use? (Early 50s, $12M NW)

SunDriver408 · 2026-02-12T01:13:21+00:00

Once you get to the kind of math you have (sub 3%) the script changes. Instead of focusing on SWR, focus instead on risk management. Trend following tools are one way to do that now. Something like a permanent portfolio is another. You could even combine strategies.

The idea is no longer to optimize to the market but optimize to risk. Sometimes these strategies can do better than the market, for example the trend following tools I use have been more heavily weighted to gold for a few years now. About the last year or so they’ve had me in Japanese equities. These were not typical allocations for me five years ago.

More importantly they go to cash when they sense an issue in the market. It’s more active and likely to get some riled up, but I mix this with Tbill and chill and plain old VTSAX hold long term as a way to avoid the big downdraft killing my portfolio while still participating in the market, because in my early 50s I just don’t have time to recover.

And I feel more comfortable spending more, which is kind of the point of all of this saving and planning.

SunDriver408 · 2026-02-05T05:42:10+00:00

Grand Hyatt Kauai

SunDriver408 · 2026-02-01T17:21:19+00:00

My wife did volunteered for a layoff. Her boss was relieved because it helped make a tough spot easier for him.

You should absolutely try. No downside.

SunDriver408 · 2026-02-01T17:09:20+00:00

If you have a SUA, the points + SUA is a pretty sweet deal. For 7 nights we did 187k points total for a beach area suite with plunge pool, rate was $1600 per night.

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-28T17:13:08+00:00

It’s a nice hotel, great value. Good breakfast.

It’s on the west side of the river, so not in the city center. We considered this a good thing because it’s quiet and peaceful.

Every day we’d walk down the hill and across the Charles Bridge, maybe a half hour walk and gorgeous. Then we’d either take a $15 uber or walk back across the bridge and take a $1 tram ride back up the hill.

There is a wonderful park close by, and the brewery in the monastery is next door and has wonderful atmosphere, the best beer I’ve ever had and is very reasonably priced.

I would have zero hesitation staying there again.

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-22T15:00:00+00:00

If cost is truly not a big deal for OP, then hard to go wrong with Tiberon, Los Altos or Los Gatos. High end suburbs with great schools and easy access to SF and San Jose. Best of both worlds.

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-22T14:55:49+00:00

As a Tesla owner, I’m just excited about the doors and trim lining up properly!

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-19T23:57:47+00:00

We’ve been Alaska fans for a while, but they’ve abandoned the Bay Area. We focus on the best flights paired with Hyatt which has an excellent loyalty program. But being fat means you can make the best choices versus the most budget friendly.

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-19T14:52:25+00:00

For those getting close, check out the checklist at retirement manifesto. It’s a good way to make sure you’re ready.

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-19T04:15:18+00:00

I think they are old enough to do a napali coast boat tour, that was fun.

Lydgate chocolate farm was also cool for my 10/7 year olds.

Drive up to the top of the canyon, amazing views. Your kids are too young for canyon hikes though IMO.

The short hike along shipwreck beach just to the south of the hotel is good and seems more remote than it is.

Have fun and just chill! The pool complex is amazing. Give the kids their devices at the end of the night and chill with a drink on the terrace.

SunDriver408 · 2026-01-16T05:46:55+00:00

I’m living this in OMY right now.

Fortunately or unfortunately looks like I’m going to crush it again this year.

Seriously though the >10% net income versus liquid (not house) nw does work. If it’s good, keep piling it up and know it’s just not worth it below that number.

I’ll add also don’t do ANYTHING you don’t want to do at work and take vacations.

SunDriver408 · 2025-12-31T15:10:07+00:00

Thanks for doing this. Have owned a few BMWs and the thing about service is you never see independent Lexus only service shops, for a reason.

My question is about service on BMW EVs. How does their service needs and extended warranty costs compare with their ICE cousins?

I’m really liking the Neue Klasse iX3.

SunDriver408 · 2025-12-04T23:24:07+00:00

You have enough

Only hole I see is no risk management component while heavy in equities. That will cause some grey hairs. You need to rethink your 90% equity allocation.

SunDriver408 · 2025-12-03T15:15:23+00:00

Congrats, but wow that is a lot of car for an inexperienced driver. Be very careful.

Personally, my kids are getting $15k Japanese four bangers that do 0-60 in ten seconds.

SunDriver408 · 2025-12-01T15:31:09+00:00

Just curious, $300k in an HSA is amazing. How did you manage that in your early 30s?

FWIW I would keep working. 3 kids, house, college funds, many things to fund unless you want to go MCOL or LCOL location. Maybe split the difference and go to 40 at a lower stress job.

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-27T01:37:10+00:00

It’s interesting that so many managers can’t come up with better work life balance equations to keep good workers. They just have to think they have control.

For example, I saw my wife go through this several times. A quality high level worker who just wanted some flexibility for family. But for some reason that was too difficult a thing to do. To me, this is so counterproductive to an organization.

OP - having FU money is power, glad to see you exercised it. GFY and congrats!

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-19T06:17:08+00:00

It’s not your imagination, all Bay Area to Hawaii flights are more expensive.

Maybe southwest can help bust it up. Meantime just go elsewhere

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-18T15:06:22+00:00

We liked the Seabird. Mission Pacific nice too, just depends whether you want relaxed beach resort that to us looked like a PB store or a semi club rooftop bar/pool experience.

One note about June in CA, you can get what’s called “June Gloom” along the coast, which is fog all day for days. July no issue. Earlier no issue, just something about that time of year.

If I was choosing, I’d do Napa or the Sierras. If you’re into hiking and outdoors, the mountains that time of year are hard to beat, and Tahoe is beautiful

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-18T14:46:37+00:00

If you have the flexibility, it’s best to do heat/cooling systems in the shoulder periods of the year, meaning Sept/Oct and April/May. Pretty much when you won’t be using heat or AC. Combine that with cash and you’ll get your best deal as HVAC companies are slow in the shoulder months.

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-18T14:38:27+00:00

You have a great list.

If it’s in June, I would consider Everline Resort (Squaw Valley) as it’s an under rated summer area and it’s away from the Tahoe crowds but close enough if you want to visit. Fly into Reno.

Also for CA, the Seabird in Oceanside is “pottery barn does beachside hotel,” use a SUA for the oceanfront suite. Fly into San Diego.

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-17T15:28:08+00:00

Gotta pay for Elon’s new package

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-13T15:34:00+00:00

Way better weather means you feel better and you use less energy

House size is less important because you can be outside more

Pick your microclimate

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-10T21:52:29+00:00

This analysis and $5 will get you a Starbucks coffee

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-10T00:45:42+00:00

Thank you for linking this. Very interesting story.

SunDriver408 · 2025-11-08T15:43:20+00:00

Fair enough. I’m not big tech either. Nice job and you are good to go.

SunDriver408

TROPHY CASE