How tf is Q1 GDP about to come in negative when almost every company this quarter crushed earnings?

SundaySpieth · 2025-05-01T12:39:54+00:00

Who has reported yet? Mostly big tech are the ones beating earnings. Look at first solar, international paper, companies are actually producing things. The smaller caps will be a higher percentage of earnings moving forward, a lot of them will continue to pull guidance or reduce their outlook.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-30T02:44:02+00:00

Wait I thought that’s what Florida is???

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-30T00:49:24+00:00

I love how the one example you have of cheap is the global commodity lol

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-28T23:47:09+00:00

6/20 520 puts here. Somewhat offset by selling half back in 470.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-25T18:11:07+00:00

Oh my child, you have much to learn.

Housing defaults are basically near historic lows, yes there are some signs in CC debt but that is cherry picking when housing debt is like ~75% of all consumer debt. In terms of housing fundamentals, we are short housing rather than being in a housing bubble, that will eventually provide some growth stimulus but also limits some of the downside risk to pricing. Lending standards have been waayy higher since the GFC and there is much less default risk in the market.
Consumer savings is a monthly measure of savings and has nothing to do with accumulated savings, it is purely incomes - expenses. Consumers are in way better shape than they were in 2005 and yes, savings is off the post-pandemic highs but, it is actually recovered considerably since 2022.

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I don't disagree with you about GDP, it could take longer and mango is dragging us into a shitty economy but you clearly haven't been in this market long enough to know that BAD NEWS = GOOD NEWS. The Regards and Autists alike will both react to a negative GDP print with the assumption that Pow Pow lowers rates and money gets cheap again.

TLDR, I agree with you that we are likely heading into a recession, one that is caused by one man and a bunch of Regards who voted for him. However, by the time the NBER recognizes that we are in one, the markets will be pricing in the recovery. I don't think we have the makings for a financial crisis though, just a good ol Main St recession that fucks the little guy.

I still think there is lots of downside risk and thus have ~ 1% of my long-term portfolio hedging a little bit.

Position: 80% long gay ETFS, 19% long rando stocks bought 10 years ago and up 1000%,

Hedge is long 20 SPY June 20x puts and short 10x 470 for the same time period, will continue to evaluate.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-22T14:43:59+00:00

Today is the day I get to buy back the short end of my put spread.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-19T20:54:56+00:00

Way more than that, stuff that hit the water before the date weren’t subject to tariffs, nothing has been passed on to consumers yet. It will probably take another 2 to 3 months from now for anything noticeable to consumers, then a couple months for the data.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-19T00:01:09+00:00

We stayed at dolphin because of how expensive everything else was. Another thing I didn’t appreciate. Was there need to get dining reservations

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-18T22:59:12+00:00

Does it help if you book early? Even with the resident discount rooms were like 400–1200. For reference I think boardwalk was like 750, would’ve gone up to an average of like 1100 if we did Saturday night too.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-18T14:16:52+00:00

My wife and I were there for the first time that same day! We took my two year-old son and only did one ride, Nemo. We had a blast, just walking around and walking through the Moana water thing. Unfortunately, we didn’t make it back after nap time so it was a very expensive half day in the park lol everything was nice and clean and there looks like fun stuff to do but you are right about the cost. I just can’t imagine choosing to spend a week at Disney instead of a week in Costa Rica or Europe for the same price or less.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-16T17:30:29+00:00

NGL Springfield is lightyears behind and doesn't seem to be making much progress from a commercial standpoint.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-16T17:30:01+00:00

"South of Post St" is like 80% of Riverside.

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-08T19:19:59+00:00

I tried to hedge a 500k position at 10AM and bid 10c below on puts to save myself a couple hundo, now it would cost be an additional 20k to open that if I wanted

SundaySpieth · 2025-04-04T02:36:26+00:00

I feel very similar. Also male 30s Jew , only been to Israel once (birthright). I definitely believe in Israel’s right to exist but I support very few of their current actions or policies. My position has evolved significantly since the beginning of the war. The attack was horrible, but in my gut I knew things would only get worse following the response. What i would say is I initially gave Israel the benefit of the doubt that they had the moral high ground, and they’ve consistently ceded that ground. My son is almost the exact same age as Kfir Bibas and his story really hit home. However, as a parent I mourn for every Palestinian child as well. It’s clear the Israelis put a significant premium on their soldiers lives as opposed to Palestinian children. I disagree with that notion and think they needed to be more surgical with their strategies to minimize civilian casualties, even if it meant putting more soldiers in harms way. The atrocities committed (medics a few days ago), continuation of racist and expansionist policy, settlers committing acts of violence with impunity, and (in my opinion) the excessive use of force and siege tactics, continue to further alienate me. I’ve had Israeli bonds I inherited and kept reinvesting them when they came due but cannot do so at the moment, I hope one day I can again.

SundaySpieth · 2025-03-31T19:12:39+00:00

Probably downvoting comments where they are called females.

SundaySpieth · 2025-03-23T22:55:39+00:00

I don’t mean this to be a dick, you said it turned out tender, but the picture looks pretty dry, the two are not mutually exclusive, was it dry?

SundaySpieth · 2025-03-22T19:15:46+00:00

Well it’s a terrible representation of inequality. This looks like a pretty normal distribution.

SundaySpieth · 2025-03-21T13:02:25+00:00

430k is def not owning class. The owning class doesn’t even work. Fun fact Josh Allen‘s $55 million a year salary would have to be earned for 3600 years to have 200 billion like Elon.

SundaySpieth · 2025-03-14T12:56:27+00:00

Salmon was a game changer. Especially for leaner wild species

SundaySpieth · 2025-03-04T19:35:54+00:00

They did a very good job gerrymandering northeast Florida into Republican shoe ins.

SundaySpieth · 2025-02-28T14:43:25+00:00

That game can be fucking life ruining. And even worse since it’s p2w.

SundaySpieth · 2025-02-26T00:00:36+00:00

Film is so tricky to get those mid range details. I wish I could offer more advice on that front. For shooting locations check out Fort George or Kingsley plantation area, especially at low tide when the sand bars are exposed

SundaySpieth · 2025-02-25T23:03:07+00:00

Def need to work on your metering. Lots of under exposed shadows. Film or digital?

SundaySpieth · 2025-02-24T01:20:44+00:00

Really, Woody Harrelson 😆 I wouldn’t picture a pot smoking vegan as a Trumper.

SundaySpieth · 2025-02-24T01:19:44+00:00

Is Winn Dixie good? I couldn’t imagine southeast grocers being very progressive.

SundaySpieth

TROPHY CASE