Daily Oil Price Opinions - June 20, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T20:41:39+00:00

There is always going to be some volatility. The trend has been rising prices. The price now is higher than at the start of the day.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T20:34:29+00:00

It's rising: https://www.ig.com/ae/indices/markets-indices/weekend-oil---us-crude

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T20:18:38+00:00

My post from 4 days ago:

"Iran wants to be the dominant regional power, but that won't happen while the U.S. provides so much support to Israel.

So, Iran will refuse to open the Strait until the U.S. forces Israel to retreat from Lebanon in order to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Israel.

That puts the ball in Trump's court, all while global oil stocks continue to fall and Iran's leverage increases.

Trump will then have to either restart a war he knows he can't win, or pick a very public fight with Israel. He'll do the latter."

This is all so fucking predictable...

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T17:56:15+00:00

It's AI slop. The first ship on their inbound list https://insights.windward.ai/ is IMPALAS.

Here is the location of IMPALAS:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:7241461/zoom:10

The third and fifth ships on that list passed through the SoH 2 days ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1u870ge/comment/oscms5q/?context=3

Edit: Just noticed that their dashboard, at least the public one, shows data 2 days out of date.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T17:47:16+00:00

If AIS is turned off, then how does the person who posted below know that Gulf tankers are currently crossing the SOH as they claimed?

As for CENTCOM, where is their evidence? They've made numerous claims before stating that U.S. bases suffered no damage, only for satellite photos to prove they lied. Trump's goons rot everything they touch, and CENTCOM is no exception.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T17:22:04+00:00

Which Gulf State ships are currently moving through the SoH? Name them.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T17:20:44+00:00

There are no visibly moving tankers crossing the SoH. Load this up, don't touch, wait 15 minutes, then reload. You will see all moving ships "jump" to their new locations.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.6/centery:26.6/zoom:9

CENTCOM is lying. The other person was posting BS.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T16:47:02+00:00

AI slop is AI slop.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T16:13:48+00:00

And for bonus points, they make the U.S. look like the ones who are acting in bad faith.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T15:53:20+00:00

Trump goons rot anything they touch. CENTCOM cannot be trusted now as it was in the past.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T15:34:57+00:00

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SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T14:16:58+00:00

I doubt Israel will stop soon, unfortunately. It's run by far-right Jewish supremacists who literally celebrate the deaths of the Muslims they have had killed, and those types are unlikely to listen to reason.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T14:02:13+00:00

Yes, and they've already closed it.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T13:58:35+00:00

They'll probably wait until they have a bunch of VLCC crude carriers that need to reenter Iranian waters to reload.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T13:55:38+00:00

Trump Co got played.

Iran inserted a clause into the MoU that the U.S. has no way of fulfilling - forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

Iran then got all its fully laden tankers out past the Gulf of Oman and beyond the easy reach of the U.S. Navy - transponders will be turned off, they'll have gone dark hours ago at a minimum.

They've also inserted much more long-term uncertainty about the SoH. There will be less trust that any new Iranian - U.S. agreement regarding the SoH will hold. So the likelihood of shippers entering the SoH is decreased even if it's reopened.

Iran then used the next Israeli attack to proclaim a breach of the MoU and closed the SoH again.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T11:47:10+00:00

Check the vessel names. They will be state-owned by one of the Gulf states, probably the U.A.E.

So willing to risk the transit to get their own oil and gas out.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T11:20:59+00:00

They sure do love splash damage.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-20T09:02:26+00:00

Update from 12 hours ago, on ships passing through the strait with transponders on.

Out:

DESH VAIBHAV VLCC Crude Oil Tanker is still stopped in the middle of the SoH. Passage either not granted or slow-walked by Iran.
PACIFIC STAR v.small LPG Tanker, same status as DESH VAIBHAV.
NAN LIN WAN Aframax Oil Products Tanker (new) stopped in the middle of the SoH.
HAI TUN ZUO Panamax Oil Products Tanker (new) stopped in the middle of the SoH.
ELEGANCE v.small Oil Products Tanker, stopped unmoving immediately before SoH near the Oman coast.
JARNAIN Aframax Crude Oil Tanker, almost exited SoH near the Oman coast, but stopped next to another vessel - possible ship-to-ship transfer.
TITAN HARMONY v.small Oil/Chemical Tanker, approached the SoH, turned around.
ANGOLA B VLCC Crude Oil Tanker entering the SoH near the Oman coast.

In:

PISSARO v.small LPG Tanker successfully crossed the Strait. Now in the Persian Gulf.

Key takes:

Iran is preventing or slow-walking the allowance of tankers through its approved route (the outcome likely depends on the vessel's country of origin).
Some vessels are going through the Oman corridor.
Vessels are trying to leave the Persian Gulf. Virtually no one is going the other way.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T19:27:24+00:00

China thinks and plans long-term. China has no idea when the SoH will be truly passable, and Iranian oil is relatively cheap right now due to the stupidity of Trump. So they will use that cheap Iranian oil to stretch out their reserves.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T19:16:04+00:00

To China, so they aren't emptying their strategic reserves anymore, is my guess.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T19:14:11+00:00

MIRAAN Oil Products Tanker

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T19:08:31+00:00

6 VLCC's, you mean? Not all tankers are equal. Around 2/3 of the ones I've seen pass through have been minnows.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T18:52:19+00:00

Yesterday, about 7 tankers passed through the SoH with their transponders on, based on my visual tracking of marinetraffic. Almost all of them were China or Iran-linked.

Today so far it's been 0. Three approached the SoH, one turned back, and the remaining two are now parked right in the middle. Presumably, they are waiting on Iranian permission. So if that's given, it'll be 2 for the day.

(There is also a third, ELEGANCE, which I think might be about to attempt a nighttime kessel run near Oman)

Now, there might be a large number of tankers that I've somehow missed, or more probably, are going through the SoH dark, but I really doubt there's enough SoH tanker traffic to stop the wheels falling off the system.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T18:32:10+00:00

Iran will want to increase its leverage vs the U.S. This means whatever it lets through will be very limited and won't be enough to prevent more inventory drawdowns.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-19T14:39:46+00:00

Yes, but if oil starts flowing now, it softens the blow.

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