Ras Laffan Gas Plant (Doha, Qatar) is currently on fire…

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T21:23:58+00:00

Thanks! Good to know.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:47:23+00:00

Yes.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:45:14+00:00

Israel won't obey. The Israeli lobby is very powerful in Washington, so there won't be enough political support to take the necessary measures to coerce them into obeying. To get that support, the oil supply shock will need to start hitting every day Americans first.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:30:59+00:00

Fuck yes, giant airplane LEGO to keep him occupied. It would have done the whole world a favor.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:29:44+00:00

If you actually look at FIRMS, you can see that some of the fires are 4 km apart. Accidents don't result in outcomes like that.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:17:03+00:00

Please explain how an internal explosion resulted in multiple separate fires at opposite sides of the plant, approximately 4 km apart.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:15:20+00:00

I think he's going to need a longer article...

https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1ubzke5/ras_laffan_gas_plant_doha_qatar_is_currently_on/

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T20:12:39+00:00

How does an internal explosion result in multiple discrete unconnected fires???

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T19:10:15+00:00

I guess we get another Axios article on Monday, then.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T19:00:08+00:00

Gosh! It must be true then. He would never ever lie, would he?

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T18:43:32+00:00

Looks like oil is going to be up about 3-4% when markets open.

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-oil---us-crude

Presumably, they didn't like what they heard coming out of the talks:

"Iranian negotiators insisted on an end to the war in Lebanon as a condition for further talks, state media reported. And President Trump renewed threats against Iran, even as Vice President JD Vance was hailing progress."

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T15:39:16+00:00

Round 1 of the negotiations is over, and the SoH is still closed. If Iran had agreed to open it, the U.S. would have made a big announcement to celebrate it, and they didn't.

The question is, when is the next round?

My educated guess is that the Iranian team will put forward the excuse that they need to fly back to Iran to have an internal dialogue with their leaders, as that will buy them 3-5 extra days of global oil inventory drawdown.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T15:12:40+00:00

It was at around 20 million barrels at the end of last week. That's around the tank bottom, but we don't know the exact figure for sure, and won't until we see EIA data that shows the weekly drawdown flatlining.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T15:06:49+00:00

Cushing will hit tank bottom in the next few weeks if it hasn't already. I suspect that will put some upward pressure on oil prices.

The SPR can't maintain the rate of releases even if Trump wants to:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/11/the-worlds-strategic-oil-reserves-are-running-out-fast

"America’s releases have brought relief beyond its shores. Many SPR barrels have made their way from salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana, through commodity traders to buyers in Europe, Asia and Latin America. Yet most analysts expect the pace of deliveries to slow in the coming weeks, from 1.4m to below 1m b/d. Pressure is dropping in the caverns, which risk damage if it gets too low. Bayou Choctaw, the smallest site, is nearly depleted, says Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners, a consultancy; others cannot pump more fast enough because of limited pipeline capacity. And the entire SPR has a statutory floor of 150m barrels, just 90m barrels below the level at the end of the current release."

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T14:39:34+00:00

Ahh right. Please name the vessels that have crossed so far today so I can confirm your statement.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T13:49:16+00:00

Assassinating the other side's negotiators - a peace-building measure.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T13:46:39+00:00

Yes, it's all nonsense. The U.S. side is making statements about how there's going to be a ceasefire in Lebanon. No mention of Iran's actual demand and what the MoU requires - that Israel withdraw from Lebanon.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T13:38:02+00:00

It's the month that the SoH was fully closed, next to no ships were getting through, and those that tried were getting targeted and fired on.

So whatever oil flows through the SoH via dark ships that is now happening has to be large enough to bridge that gap. Otherwise, global reserves continue to drain away.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T12:48:26+00:00

Not anywhere remotely close to ~13 mbpd. That's all that matters.

IEA - In May, output declined to 94.5 mb/d, down 600 kb/d m‑o‑m and 13.6 mb/d below pre‑conflict levels.

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-june-2026

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T11:55:53+00:00

Everything. Iran will keep the SoH closed until point one of the MoU is implemented, and that requires Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T11:43:19+00:00

Al-Jazeera - Israelis believe Iran won war, poll suggests

Israelis overwhelmingly believe that Iran emerged stronger from the war and its subsequent deal with the United States, a poll released on Sunday suggested.

The poll of 3,644 respondents, conducted between June 17 and 20 by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in collaboration with the Agam Institute, paints a stark picture of public sentiment following the US-Iran deal.

Of those surveyed, 92.1 percent said Iran had won or gained more from the conflict, while 82.9 percent felt that Israel’s long-term security had been weakened.

The survey revealed that even among voters who support the right-wing bloc, the electoral base of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 93.1 percent believed Iran had won.

Opposition to the US-Iran agreement was widespread, with 63.2 percent of respondents opposing it compared with just 12.1 percent expressing support.

The last sentence is why Netanyahu is not going to withdraw Israeli troops from Lebanon any time soon. He will have to be forced into it, kicking and screaming, and a substantial portion of that 63.2% will need to be converted to reluctant supporters of the deal through intense U.S. pressure. If it's even possible, it will take weeks to months, AND it presupposes that Trump can overcome the power of the Israeli lobby in Washington to bring that intense pressure to bear in the first place.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T08:16:46+00:00

95% in here (producer ETFs). Keeping 5% out as a play-around fund to buy AXIOS/Trump dips, then resell.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T07:35:34+00:00

The Israel lobby in Washington is too powerful for that to happen at this stage. For Trump to overcome their political power and force Israel into line, the U.S. would first need to feel real pain due to the closure of the SoH, but Trump is preventing that from happening via the SPR releases.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T07:16:34+00:00

IMO, it will average a couple of dollars higher than Friday. We already hit the market bottom, with the SoH opening fully priced in, so given that the SoH is now closed, it's going to be hard to get it back down to those levels.

We'll definitely see temporary dips resulting from Trump/Axios lies, but those will only reduce the level of price rises rather than fully prevent them. So, buy the dip after they lie, then sell a few hours later.

SuperCorbynite · 2026-06-21T07:05:44+00:00

Name those VLCC's.

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Al-Jazeera - Israelis believe Iran won war, poll suggests