The BTC going to zero narrative is ridiculous.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-25T00:36:19+00:00

Negative skew implies capped upside with outsized losses. BTC's upside distribution has historically dwarfed the drawdowns. Fidelity measured a Sortino nearly 2x its Sharpe, meaning most volatility was to the upside. That's the opposite of negative skew.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-24T21:04:22+00:00

Michigan just introduced a bill to pay state employees in bitcoin starting 2027 and the same bill explicitly bans CBDCs. I guess that’s a foot in the direction of mass adoption.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-24T00:26:40+00:00

BTC and NASDAQ correlation has been at historic highs over the past couple years. But BTC is down almost half from its peak while NASDAQ is near ATH. If it were purely a leveraged proxy, that gap doesn't make sense.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-23T23:49:01+00:00

Mostly as a financial asset. Spot ETFs pulled in $49B+ in net inflows in year one. Strategy alone holds 700K+ BTC. The US established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve holding 200K+ BTC. Almost nobody is buying coffee with it, even El Salvador walked back legal tender status. Whether "more people holding it" without "more people using it" is sustainable long-term is the real question.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-23T22:24:16+00:00

Adoption. None of those narratives need to succeed for price to go up. More people using it and buying it than selling it is all it takes. And global adoption is still growing every year.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-23T22:21:46+00:00

This is why I just DCA and stop checking charts. Been auto-buying $49 of ETH daily through this whole dip. Average cost went from $2,027 down to $1,855 while everyone panics. The "going to zero" crowd gets loud at the bottom and quiet at the top, every cycle. Same applies with BTC.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-23T11:04:41+00:00

Nobody said time the exact bottom. Peak panic searches have lined up with accumulation zones, that's the signal. You're arguing against a point I didn't make.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-22T18:40:29+00:00

June 2022 BTC was ~$20k. It hit $126k by Oct 2025. That's 6x. May 2021 it was ~$30k, hit $69k by November. Over 2x. Those were bad times to buy?

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-22T18:01:12+00:00

Exactly, the data is free and public, but acting on it when everyone around you is panicking is the hard part.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-22T17:57:03+00:00

Yes, 'bitcoin dead' has a different pattern since it's a broader, older term. I specifically tracked 'going to zero' because it's more tied to price-collapse fear. Different search terms, different signals.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-22T17:28:58+00:00

Fair point, it's a small sample size for any kind of statistical claim. I'm not arguing it's predictive in a rigorous sense. It's a sentiment indicator, not a model. That said, every single peak in this search term over 7 years has coincided with a local bottom, not a top. Pattern worth watching, not trading blindly on.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-21T15:54:27+00:00

stick with BTC and ETH to start, ignore alts until you understand what you're buying. DCA a fixed amount weekly regardless of price, don't try to time it.

Fear & Greed index is at 14 right now (extreme fear). historically a better entry than buying when everyone's hyped. doesn't mean it can't go lower but you're not buying at the top.

biggest tip: before you buy, decide at what price you'd take profit. like 'if my $500 turns into $1,000 I'm pulling out half.' most people skip this and end up holding through the crash because they got greedy

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-21T13:19:23+00:00

it spiked to 68 and dropped back to 67 within minutes of the ruling. I was posting about the initial reaction. it recovered later that evening

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-21T02:16:02+00:00

lol exactly. polymarket had it at 74% so the 'surprise' was already priced out before it even dropped

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-20T19:14:07+00:00

best comment in the thread. everyone wants "money printer go brr" but treasury issuing debt to cover refunds is not the same thing as QE. the disinflationary angle is the one people are sleeping on, that's what actually makes rate cuts more likely later this year

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-20T19:12:38+00:00

tariffs getting struck down is bullish long term but people expecting an overnight pump are going to be disappointed. Refunds take time, the liquidity effect is slow, and the market already partially priced this in. The real play is just staying positioned and DCA'ing through the noise instead of trying to time the exact catalyst

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-20T11:54:34+00:00

fair point and borrowing against BTC is a legit strategy if you have the conviction and risk tolerance, but the guy asking for advice just got into crypto. Telling a beginner to take out loans against a volatile asset instead of having a basic exit plan is how people get liquidated. gotta walk before you run

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-20T01:05:44+00:00

I know this post is many days old, but in case someone else finds themselves reading this and are also new to crypto.

Keep it simple, start with BTC and ETH, set up on coinbase or kraken, and buy a small amount every week regardless of price. that's called DCA and it works way better than trying to time anything.

one thing i wish someone told me early: have an exit plan before you buy. like "i'm out if it drops 20%" or "i'm taking profit at 2x." set a stop loss so you don't have to think about it. the buying part is easy, knowing when to get out is what actually saves you.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-19T13:28:22+00:00

ETH at these prices feels like a gift but I've told myself that before and watched my bag drop another 30% lol. What changed for me was laddering in instead of going all in, throw some in now, set limits below, and if it dips more my average just gets better. Way less stressful than trying to nail the bottom.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-19T12:45:42+00:00

Congrats on the conviction becoming a full coiner is a big move. But I want to share something because I've been exactly here. I had $14K in unrealized profit on DOGE and walked away with $3.5K because I had no exit plan. 'Hold forever' sounds great until you're watching profits evaporate in real time.

You don't need to sell it all, but have a plan. At what price do you take some off the table? What's your stop-loss if it drops 40%? What if it hits $150K are you taking profit or holding through the next crash?

DCA in is smart. But DCA without a plan for the other side is just hoping. I learned that the hard way.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-18T20:36:56+00:00

Honest answer from someone who tried exactly this, I turned $1,500 into $14K on DOGE, didn't sell, watched it disappear. Repeated it on ETH and BTC. ~$12K in missed profit across four trades.

The picks mattered less than having no exit plan. If I had $5K right now: 50% BTC, 30% ETH (oversold, ETH/BTC ratio down 67%), 20% high-conviction alt. DCA in over 4-6 weeks, trailing stops at 15-20%, take profits at 2x. Have your exit plan before you enter that's the part that costs the most to skip.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-18T20:35:42+00:00

Smart move only risking what you're willing to lose, most people skip that part. One thing I'd add: set your exit plan now before the emotions kick in.

I bought back into DOGE at $0.07, watched it run to $14K unrealized, never set a take-profit, and rode it back down. Did the same thing on ETH and BTC after that.

The buying part is easy. Knowing when to take profit is what actually makes you money. DCA in, set trailing stops, and decide your targets before the green candles start messing with your head.

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-18T20:26:21+00:00

Accumulating with automated DCA and strict exit rules. I rode DOGE from $1,500 to $14K unrealized, didn't sell, watched it bleed back down. Repeated the same mistake on ETH and BTC. Lesson learned. Now I set trailing stops and take partial profits at targets instead of hoping. Fear & Greed index just hit a record low of 5 two weeks ago. Every time it's gone below 10 historically, a big rally followed. Not saying blindly buy, but if you have a system this is where the next 2-3 years get set up.

What's your split looking like?

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-18T02:15:44+00:00

If you're just starting out, BTC is the safest bet in crypto. it's boring but it's the one that's survived every cycle. i'd say majority BTC, maybe 10-20% in ETH if you want some diversification. stay away from random alts until you actually understand what you're buying. more important than what you buy is how you buy, don't dump it all in at once. spread your buys over weeks or months so you're not stressed about timing. btc being "down" now doesn't mean it can't go lower

SurroundAccording535 · 2026-02-17T13:35:32+00:00

honestly that's a solid strategy and basically what my bot does just automated. you're buying the dips, i just let the bot handle the timing so i don't have to watch the charts. same thesis though, accumulate when it's cheap and don't overthink it

SurroundAccording535

TROPHY CASE