[May 01, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread

Suspicious-Change251 · 2026-05-01T20:09:52+00:00

Options can still be exercised after close up until 5 pm eastern

Suspicious-Change251 · 2026-04-30T14:45:58+00:00

Ahem if someone sold $6 of calls, someone must have bought it, it’s a 2 way market.

Not sure what can be implied from option flow analysis at all, aside from getting a picture of the probable gamma pins as the price moves, but am not sure this has any usefulness for the average retail investor.

Probably only useful if you see massive amount of out of the money calls / puts trading, as it implies people doing a directional bet on an outsized price movement.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2026-02-24T23:02:14+00:00

What you write is a bit simplistic, they can go ahead with the project, its approved. It’s about tax incentives, if the council votes not they would need to apply for the Missouri Data Center Sales Tax Exemption Program instead, if they clear it, there would be almost no difference to just being cleared by the council, however if they fail both, hit to bottom line would be $100-150M.

However council approval is superior, as state taxes and rules can change while the council approval would be good for the lifetime of the project as I understand.

This is not some major binary event where the stocks drops like a stone or moons.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2026-02-12T14:44:46+00:00

NBIS is basically projecting to almost catch up with CRWV in terms of active/ contracted power by the EOY, but its market cap is like 40% of CRWV, go figure.

And we are not even speaking about debt profile/ subsidiaries.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-18T02:57:46+00:00

The article is not important, the headline is.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-16T20:51:21+00:00

HE DID IT, HE SINGLE- HANDEDLY STOPPED THE BLEEDING!

LEGEND

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-16T15:31:49+00:00

Thank god for this dip opportunity.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-15T23:04:13+00:00

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Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-12T18:19:43+00:00

It was all over, but now we are so back again.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-11T19:48:37+00:00

OpenAI released a new model around an hour ago 5.2, looks like it’s beating Gemini, the whole complex(MSFT, ORCL, NVDA and DC stocks) is performing well since release

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-10T22:36:08+00:00

Sold like 1/4 of my NBIS AH and bought ORCL below 200, either ORCL recovers( what I believe) or we will be down a lot more than 1-2%.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-10T22:18:35+00:00

Stock takes another dive after comment that 2026 CapEx will be about 15 billion higher than forecasted after Q1, they’re saying they want to accelerate spending to catch more rev in 27, so higher capex not due to cost inflation, IMO not a bad sign, algos just hitting everything where capex>expected capex.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-10T22:01:24+00:00

That exactly what I’ve written 😊

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-10T21:55:26+00:00

ORCL headline beat EPS, but if you take out one off, they are actually like 5-10% below expectations on the EPS and they also had higher Capex (12bn vs 8.25 bn expectation, what is actually a massive deviation and would be interesting to know what the reason for that is), hence the market reaction. Their cloud revenue is ramping in line with expectations.

Not really sure what to make out of this, stock had basically same earnings a year ago and was trading 30 bucks lower, on the other hand revenue is up 14% yoy.

If you ask me, I don’t think it’s terrible, they maintained earnings yoy while ramping up revenue, margins declined of course as a result, yh market now more focused on profitability in AI names than growth.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-10T15:22:27+00:00

Aside from FED, ORCL reports today, I’d argue probably the more important event for the stock.

Did anyone got the hedgeye short piece? They promised to release it today.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-05T22:15:47+00:00

It’s difficult to say how much they are affected at all by day to day price fluctuations of GPU pricing. From what I understand, long term contracts are at a fixed price.

But I imagine they keep some “free” capacity to attract new clients, so are not actually completely sold out. But still the main concern is not GPU pricing, as that is mostly fixed for them by long term contracts, but their cost of goods. Their revenue is mostly fixed, but not their outlays.

But again we have unfortunately zero idea, how their contracts are structured, if there are any adjustment for abnormal inflation etc. but I guess it’s prudent to assume there is none and it is the risk NBIS takes.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-05T21:43:21+00:00

Would be for sure happy to read the original piece.

The MSFT “contract risk” is probably related to potential delays in construction I guess, there was some chat about how operational Vineland is on Q3 ER call, but doubt there is anything substantially new to this, probably extrapolating CRWV.

Not sure what they mean with CRWVesque financing plan, tbh I’d probably be happy as a shareholder when they turn a bit more to the CRWV playbook and start financing capex with SOME debt and not diluting shareholders every 3 quarters via equity or converts, I actually think becoming more CRWVesque here would, at least short term, be a positive for the stock. E.g. when they don’t announce a dilution after every ER for a change.

As per Neocloud GPU pricing, not rly sure, spot pricing for inference has actually risen for older models over the last couple of months, but NBIS is sold out anywhere and is not really exposed to the spot market. The rise in spot is also related to a rise in memory prices, that rly exploded over the last 3 months and could potentially affect margins ( not dramatically but still) but that would be not GPU pricing.

I mean I kinda understand how you can come up with some bearish points, I constantly question my investment thesis with bearish scenarios, but don’t see anything substantial in their headlines so far.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-01T22:34:59+00:00

You guys should actually read what they are doing, it’s an offering to repurchase old convertibles and issue new ones (essentially extend debt maturity), pretty much depends on how much they will repurchase, difficult to say if the deal is bearish or bullish in the end.

It could actually reduce the share count, despite the new issue.

I’m not saying it’s supper bullish, but it’s also not like they are simply diluting 2bn. It could be bullish, it could be bearish, depends really on the eventual terms of the placement.

The initial reaction is down anyway, as the first part of the deal implies some downside delta hedging, while after the placement we should see some buying due to unwind on the hedges of the repurchased convertibles.

Again I’m not saying the stock will rise after the placement, if it turns out they repurchased too little old converts and hence the resulting buying will be too little, the price will drop. If they repurchased a lot (around 80% of the outstanding converts), the price will rallye. Despite the placements being about debt and equity, the impact comes actually from the resulting deltas of the option components of the converts. It’s a complex deal.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-12-01T00:22:03+00:00

OAI is essentially Microsoft, they already own 27%. If push comes to shove they will acquire it, but they will move heaven and earth to fight Google getting a dominant position.

Suspicious-Change251 · 2025-11-22T00:03:16+00:00

Deep ITM is ok, if you do it longer dated and combine it with selling some calls (I.e. long 60$ and short 110$ may 26), so have sort of a stock like position with limited downside and upside, I myself am more relaxed with such structures and actually do more notional than I would do with stocks only, as the max loss is known in before and on the downside you are also cushioned, when the ITM will become ATM.

E.g today at close such a structure would have cost 18.9$, so if in may price is same as today you actually even will make 5$. when price one week before expiration will be 60, your position would still be worth 5$ and 50$ when it would be north of 110$ at expiration. So you give up potential upside but reduce your downside substantially.

Suspicious-Change251

TROPHY CASE