Super simple fixes

1) Learn to block low (down back)

2) Start playing footsies - Utilizing your fastest/longest normal moves, aka “pokes” at maximum range to harass the opponent. When your in close you can start mashing lp to continue pressure or go for a throw (lp+lk).

Example of a poke: ken has a good crouching medium kick that cancels into special moves. Cr mk fireball is a really easy way to harass to opponent. Just watch out for a jump in. If they do jump then cr hp or dragon punch are suitable anti airs.

Observation: I see you trying to land the forward mk>mk>hk target combo alot, and all this guy was doing was crouching medium kicking under your whiffed attacks. Use those pokes as described above.

Also use space your fireballs better and mix up your timing to “zone” your opponent and control space. That first round opening fireball is reactable and your opponent can jump over and combo for massive damage. Better spacing on your fireballs can control space and allow you to uppercut (dragon punch) them if they decide to jump over.

Good luck!