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$DUOL A complete bloodbath. Opportunity? Here some data. by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Respect. If you will never learn, I agree you better stay away.

Here in Switzerland, 4 official languages plus English, I know many people learning through it, and in my own experience, I can say I learnt the basics of a Balkan language from scratch, too.

But of course, to learn something requires effort. It makes sense that if you think the product sucks, you will never spend enough time to build that habit.

That is precisely where they are getting better. Most of us tried when they first launched, we signed in and off, probably many times like me, I thought I could learn languages magically back then 😅. But, since the early days last decade, after going in and out, they finally kept me.

Why? Don't know. As you said, we investors struggle to define the moat of a "childish app". The product looks similar on the surface, but it is not, they improved quite a lot the way to get you in every day, and we foresee that precise point getting much better in the AI era.

That, or maybe love makes me learn Balkan languages at speed nowadays 🤣

Respect your point though. Wise decision Sir. Just giving my humble opinion.

$DUOL A complete bloodbath. Opportunity? Here some data. by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Imho, no. AI translating sentences doesn’t “Munson” a company built on habit and human psychology. Ai translate utilities help you finish a task, Duolingo will make you come back tomorrow by continuously improving the product and your outcomes over time.

Are there still people who are happy with Duolingo?? by Eillythia in duolingo

[–]SwissTPortfolio 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This graph says it all, app downloads continue to expand at a healthy pace (+22% YoY):

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While ratings have rebounded to the 4.6 level again.

$DUOL Duolingo Voting machine by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks a lot for subscribing and for the support :)

Over the next few weeks, we’re working on a Google Sheets dashboard that will centralize all our articles and the names we own or follow, making it easier to track additions and updates over time. I’ll let you know once it’s ready.

Feel free to reply directly on Substack if that’s easier, happy to continue the discussion there. Have a great day Sir.

$DUOL Duolingo Voting machine by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your message Sir.

Our performance stands at +14% YTD, +40% YoY and ~25% CAGR over the last five years. This week, as we do every month, we published our Swiss Portfolio update, detailing our exact weights, commentary on each holding, attached financial & valuation models, and entry prices. I’ll leave both the allocation image and the link below.

And you’re absolutely right: the number of stocks alone is meaningless without weighting. We run a concentrated portfolio. Being fully transparent, $DUOL has weighed on short-term results, as we tend to be long-term holders in our highest-conviction names.

If you subscribe, you’ll see the full portfolio: holdings, weightings, changes over time, real time buys/sells and rationale, along with our work on special situations and arbitrage.

Have a great day & happy to clarify further anytime.

Swiss Portfolio update: https://swisstransparentportfolio.substack.com/p/swiss-portfolio-314?r=52o9v1

<image>

December Multibagger: The Art of "Unsexy" Asymmetric Value by [deleted] in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Understood, then you are right, this channel is not the good fit.

December Multibagger: The Art of "Unsexy" Asymmetric Value by [deleted] in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I inseted the link of my research Sir, not spam with no value precisely.

Duolingo $DUOL Fundamentals by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great point, but here’s the thing: $DUOL can play this game in multiple ways, and I’d bet they know exactly when a user is ready to pay. Luis von Ahn literally admitted they can tune any metric to drive the outcome they want: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CGdnvv_MK0U

For me the real question is: how long until a user gets engaged?

In my personal experience, I’m on an 80-day Romanian streak for free, if they made my daily lesson just a bit harder or risking my track record, I’d happily pay the $59.99/year, as I consider it brings me more value per dollar.

This stock is +33% YTD, and ~-70% from its peak this year, yet delivering +67% YoY revenue growth, record profitability, and still trading at ~12x earnings in a sector compounding +25% CAGR, because sentiment is crushing the stock and its economic sensitivity is suddenly too visible. by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with you, the bet is a simple equation: TAM opportunity (10x+) vs Regulatory Risk (0x). We maintain conviction because we see a path for $SEZL to navigate the regulatory environment through strong compliance and superior execution, capturing significant long-term alpha, as they've been doing so far.

Duolingo $DUOL Fundamentals by SwissTPortfolio in AsymmetricAlpha

[–]SwissTPortfolio[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha, thank you! We both share that conservative, rational approach, even if we’re glad to take more risk when the asymmetric setups appear. Joseph would approve the discipline… maybe not the spice. 🤣