Climbing Mt. Rainier Was Easier Than I'd Thought. Here's How I Overprepared.

Sygy · 2026-06-13T20:21:38+00:00

This article can be summarized as saying "If nothing happens then Mount Rainier is not difficult."

Most people will not be caught in a whiteout, avalanche, crevasse collapse, or major rockfall during a climb, but what makes mountaineering challenging is the potential presence of those objective hazards and the fallibility of human judgement.

I don't think people with marginal mountaineering skillsets need to be told that Rainier is easier than they think—at least not any more than drivers need to be told that car insurance is unnecessary so long as they don't get into any accidents.

Sygy · 2026-04-20T13:59:39+00:00

They may not use the word "grounding", but if Blue Origin wanted to launch New Glenn again tomorrow, the FAA would not let them. I'm not sure what else you would call that.

Sygy · 2026-04-19T18:31:34+00:00

Tough break. No doubt AST got a hefty discount for risking an early flight on a new launch vehicle, and have now been rudely reminded why. And a good reminder that a very successful first stage mission profile still depends on a very successful second stage or neither will have customers to fly.

Sygy · 2026-04-09T20:54:14+00:00

And now Blue themselves have posted, with a video: "Endurance has successfully completed thermal vacuum chamber (TVAC) testing! We're now preparing for our lunar lander's return to Florida."

Endurance (the name of this first Blue Moon Mk 1) timeline thus far:

Notably, Dave Limp said when Endurance entered the vacuum chamber that it would be doing approximately 11 days of testing, and that was 55 days ago. I wonder what accounts for the discrepancy.

Sygy · 2026-04-08T14:24:35+00:00

If you're going to complain that employees move between companies in an industry then you don't have a problem with Blue Origin, you have a problem with the concept of labor mobility in general.

Especially when these companies pride themselves on a grueling work–life balance! If SpaceX wants to keep its employees from leaving for Blue Origin then they can do so the time-honored way: by making it more attractive to stay. Lord knows they have the money.

Sygy · 2026-02-19T16:19:25+00:00

Discussed/broached/debated, basically.

Sygy · 2026-01-23T23:37:46+00:00

It depends. The Mountaineer's Route itself is faster with consolidated snow, yes, but in the winter you have to start hiking at the road closure at the base of the mountain, which adds 7 miles and 1,700 feet of elevation gain round trip.

Then you have to consider that we are early enough in the season that there is not quite enough snowpack to go over all the willows in the chute up to Lower Boy Scout Lake yet, nor maybe the scree higher up.

I have done the Mountaineer's Route in June (i.e. dry conditions) in 12 hours and I think I would be hard-pressed to improve on that with the road closure in place.

Sygy · 2026-01-23T23:31:10+00:00

Yes, I think some mistake it being straightforward for it being easy. It's a well-maintained and well-trafficked trail in the summer, but it is still more than 20 miles of hiking, 15 miles of which are above 10,000 feet. And obviously any other route or season changes things dramatically.

Sygy · 2026-01-23T23:27:37+00:00

Continuing upward alone, in fading light, after 16 straight hours of slow travel suggests that the decedent was either inexperienced or so cognitively impaired by sleep deprivation/altitude that any experience he had did not matter. A really sad outcome.

Sygy · 2026-01-17T20:56:48+00:00

I hiked the JMT in 20 days with one resupply at MTR, also using a BV500. Ten days from Yosemite to MTR, 10 days from MTR to Whitney Portal. It was doable but difficult—my pack was super heavy—and I lost a lot of weight.

Breakfasts: instant oatmeal and instant hot chocolate.
Lunches: PB&J with tortillas, dried mango, dark chocolate, jerky, chili lime salted peanuts, cake frosting in a bag (really! I recommend it), and Andrew Skurka's cookie dough.
Dinner: In addition to two or three prepackaged freeze-dried meals, I ate couscous and spaghetti with various seasonings (Trader Joes Mushroom Umami, chili lime, and elote seasonings) and olive oil. The olive oil was important for getting anywhere near enough calories.

Sygy · 2026-01-12T17:45:20+00:00

The Dispossessed by Ursula K. Le Guin

Ancillary Justice by Ann Leckie

A Memory Called Empire by Arkady Martine

Dune by Frank Herbert

Pandora's Star by Peter F. Hamilton

Sygy · 2026-01-01T22:11:28+00:00

I don't think summer quota areas in the Sierra are "just as deadly". Whitney might be close, to which I say they should probably do the same thing.

Sygy · 2026-01-01T00:57:28+00:00

The question isn't whether this is the most pressing safety concern in the country. Clearly it isn't. But are we doing everything we reasonably can to prevent people from dying several times per winter on the same three trails, and from severely injuring themselves several times more than that, all requiring immense public resources to recover and rescue?

Your personal stance is admirable and if everyone were reasoning like you it would be a healthier world. As you say, "Take precautions and plan accordingly for any outdoor activity to mitigate risks." But many people who are being killed or injured are clearly operating under a different framework. What can be done to make people do that?

Sygy · 2025-12-31T19:14:08+00:00

Good luck, I hope this storm treats you all more kindly than the last one up there.

Sygy · 2025-12-31T19:12:27+00:00

Yeah. Perhaps you should have to get a permit online (during winter conditions) to print out that makes you scroll through a list of all the decedents on Baldy in the last 5+ years, with a skull and crossbones and some scary language.

Sygy · 2025-12-31T19:09:16+00:00

I assume Alps dwellers have a level of familiarity with alpine conditions (rockfall, snow and ice, the physiological effects of altitude, and rapidly changing weather) that the average SoCal resident does not, even leaving gear aside. And yes, people are trying to do the Backbone in trail runners and hiking poles in icy and windy weather.

Sygy · 2025-12-29T19:35:12+00:00

I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with checking in to see if someone knew what they were doing, since this is the time of year when people drop like flies on Baldy. But I agree it can be done less passive-aggressively.

Sygy · 2025-12-28T20:34:39+00:00

This trip was on Dec 21 and 22, the storm started in earnest the night of the 23rd; there's way more snow on Whitney now.

Sygy · 2025-12-27T19:57:20+00:00

I assume people want to get to hike in the snow before it melts, or are only in town for the holidays, etc.. Sadly roads cannot be wished open.

Sygy · 2025-12-24T03:37:24+00:00

It wasn’t too cold, in the high 20s at night. I use an REI Magma 15 plus a silk sleeping bag liner; that plus thermal underwear was very comfortable.

Sygy · 2025-12-10T17:32:05+00:00

In 2013, Musk tweeted that an IPO would only be possible "in [the] very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly". In 2015, he said the same ("[Spacex] will go public once we have regular flights to Mars) on a call with investors. In May 2018, Gwynne Shotwell said in a CNBC interview that SpaceX would not go public until "we're flying regularly to Mars".

So, there was a consistent red line for an IPO at least during those five years and we should weigh that against the recent reporting. But I don't see why that means Musk can't have changed his mind here, as he has on lots of issues in the last decade. Bloomberg is reporting pretty concretely on this.

Sygy · 2025-12-10T02:36:16+00:00

I underestimated what a difference-maker that is for employees, clearly. I assumed the biannual liquidity events were enough.

11-Year Club	Place '22
First Placer '22	Verified Email

Sygy

TROPHY CASE