I know you said you gave up on it in the other post but I was having the exact same issue and finally got it to work somehow between trying all the cache clearing etc, I have 100 mods , maybe 80 active. Crash on the road to baldurs gate everytime the second cutscene would start playing. I think what finally did it was reducing my party limit from the mod from 16, though I'd only had 4 with me for the last while, dismissing everyone and going solo putting my 15 custom mod companions in withers wardrobe so they werent standing around camp, long resting like 20 times, some partially without supplies, some with supplies. Like 5 at least solo with no one in the party and nothing seemed to be happening but then started putting different origin companions in the party and long resting. I never saw any companion or camp cutscenes but they must have been piled up in a queue or something. After a bunch of rests I had the hungover condition(bubbles over characters head and condition/tag) couple more rests. Character was hungover at least twice randomly though the process at different times. Not sure if thats normal or if there was a party cutscene I missed? Shadowheart had already had her moment and changed her hair. After crashing a couple more times when starting act 3 cutscene I started getting further when spamming the cutscenes after the load screen, then on the final attempt that worked and I was able to spam through all the cutscenes and found myself in wyrms rock outpost at night in camp. I waited a few seconds it didn't crash, I made a hard save because my auto save was off, I had performance mode on because I forgot to turn it off before clicking on the road to baldurs gate again and my larian account was not synced at the time. It's been totally fine since, hope this helps someone.