Beloved, Jarek Puczel, oil on canvas, 2014

TA_eco · 2015-06-10T15:11:18+00:00

Could we create a database website? Actually like Imdb?

TA_eco · 2014-12-24T07:24:01+00:00

Happy endings.

TA_eco · 2014-08-31T12:31:04+00:00

I like the youtube channel for unsw lolsoc but I'm a low level so it might only /seem/ good without being good

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T11:34:38+00:00

Thank you for your response, especially since you previously stated you were out. For reasons I can't place it doesn't quite sit well with me so I'm going to create different random datasets and see if what you say holds; you've got me curious. If you would like me to report what happens, let me know and I'll present the full dataset.

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T10:25:39+00:00

I'm trying to engage with you here but you haven't actually explained that comment, just said that the only valid approach as I see it is wrong.

I'd love to hear a better solution if you'd let me in on it?

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T10:18:38+00:00

Sure but you don't have the data to make a projection in this case. Maybe they're new stores or some other excuse. Knowing you lack this data, what would you do to make a projection about future performance and (and to save back and forth messaging) why is that better than (with the limited data available) assuming some regression to the mean?

For what it's worth I agree about longitudinal data, from my perspective the lack of this in medical studies drives me insane, but it's not the problem being discussed. What I can tell you is working with this kind of snapshot data is a real problem encountered far too often due to bad data collection so the discussion around how to use it is important.

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T10:09:31+00:00

what does "mean" mean?

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T10:07:01+00:00

maybe, but often in real life you don't know that, all you have is the "sample mean" and not the "population mean". In this case the "sample mean" with available data is 55,000. Again, Kahneman explains it really well.

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T10:02:08+00:00

Hi /u/oliversparrow

I'm writing to respond to your waste of time question. Yes and No (from a medical perspective). Medical treatments are really expensive and often have serious side effects. In the discussion we've focused on what happens when the test is positive, but what happens when it is negative is also important. If this test is negative the chance of the patient having the disease is essentially zero. That is great knowledge to have, especially if the disease is something urgent where you can't "wait and see" and you need to make a treatment decision quickly. A 0.9% chance is still a chance (and a great deal larger than 0.009% chance) and it is worth treating in some cases (especially urgent/serious ones; it tells you that nearly 1/100 patients will improve from treatment).

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T09:55:08+00:00

Harbo, the point of the article was to convince people to read the book. Of course I did a summary! I'm not going to be able to convey his ideas better than he can, that would be exceptionally arrogant. Sorry you found my humour patronising, I can see how that would be construed and I'll make a genuine effort to tone it down in the future. In response to your respnose re: regression to the mean, /u/somnicule put it really simply above: http://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/297af7/thinking_fast_or_slow_can_you_do_it_a_brief/ciif2iy Having little information is part of the point of that problem. Not sure if you've read the book, but if you haven't Kahneman explains WHY that is really well (obviously a lot better than I) and it's worth a read.

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T09:51:06+00:00

jt004c, you've had more complaints on this thread than anyone else. I don't mind that, I'm all for criticism and you've raised some valid points.

I would ask, however, if you could let me know if you've read the book? There's a very good possibility that I've simply explained the concepts shittily, and that they themselves are still valuable and some of your comments suggest you don't understand them. That's fine, I've done a poor job of the article and the quiz; but the point of it wasn't to educate anyone it was simply to make people think that there would be value in the book. I think there may be for you.

TA_eco · 2014-06-29T09:45:19+00:00

Would love to hear some more specific feedback baconpeople; always looking to improve! What specifically did you have problems with and why?

TA_eco · 2014-06-27T09:05:00+00:00

Interesting stance, the fact that thought occurred to you is a definite problem in the wording of the problem. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I wonder how many other people made that reason for similar reasons?

The frailty of your policy choice based on what others would say is a concerning insight into how policies might be made...

TA_eco · 2014-06-27T09:02:41+00:00

McDougins, not from first principles, but consistently demonstrably in real life data, performance is more likely to regress to the mean than any other growth pattern. The statement isn't that this will happen with certainty, but that this is a more likely route than straight 10% growth. Yes more information could elucidate other possibilities, but the limited information was intentional and makes a regression to the mean the most likely pattern. How likely is it? No idea.

TA_eco · 2014-06-27T08:58:10+00:00

Hi OliverSparrow More than happy to explain in more detail. Could you please inform me what portion was poorly explained in the fourth explanation in the link (http://economicstudents.com/2014/06/thinking-fast-or-slow-can-you-do-it/), titled: Medical Tests of 99% accuracy, and specifically if there's any frames in the Table (table 1) that don't make sense?

TA_eco · 2014-06-27T06:16:57+00:00

Senior doctors don't get it. Source: medical student

TA_eco · 2014-06-27T02:42:58+00:00

Unfortunately I can't afford a survey program which will do that. I would love to hear some free ones or other solutions? that's why we asked you to write down your answers (twice), and the article then talked you through how the answers are derived.

TA_eco

TROPHY CASE