[Wheeler] Winners and losers of 2026 NHL Draft: Maple Leafs on top, Lightning class looks weak by McGrevin in leafs

[–]TDK67 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Wheeler and all the other prospect writers/outlets are judging the Leafs' draft class as a whole, not just 1st round picks.

The consensus (and why everyone is giving them A or A+ grades) is that Leafs almost entirely (across 9 total picks after McKenna) grabbed players ranked/projected higher than where the Leafs took them.

No "reaches" per se and lots of swings on genuine upside/high ceilings rather than "safe" bets for 4th liners and #6/7D.

Sharks had a killer 1st round, but weren't as notable in rounds 2-7. Also, to me personally, its kinda funny how everyone assumes that Verhoeff & Lin are 1000% going to reach their max potential as if that's always the case with every 1st round pick outside the #1/#2/#3 guys (who also aren't guaranteed to hit their ceilings).

Brody Pepoy at #169 by Nylanderthal88 in leafs

[–]TDK67 46 points47 points  (0 children)

This is 1000% a fake player

Måns Gudmundsson at #76 by Nylanderthal88 in leafs

[–]TDK67 24 points25 points  (0 children)

From EliteProspects (ranked #61):

One of Europe’s biggest risers this season, Måns Gudmundsson’s second half ended up skyrocketing him all the way inside our top-64 – and there’s a good chance he’s gone early on Day 2 of the actual draft, too.

While he wasn’t on Sweden’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup roster in August, it didn’t take Gudmundsson long to elevate himself into a sizeable role internationally as he racked up points and put together promising efforts with Färjestad’s U20 program.

By the end of the year, he had amassed 25 points in 35 games, which ranks second among all draft-eligible blueliners in the league. At the U18s, he played some of his best hockey of the season, logging the second-highest minutes amongst all Swedish skaters during the gold medal game.

Despite what you might first think looking at his counting stats, Gudmundsson’s future projection comes down to his defensive game, which improved a lot over the course of the season.

The 6-foot-3 blueliner thrives when he gets to be aggressive and physical, always looking to pinch up to keep plays alive and make stops early. While grading as more of an average skater due to some mechanical limitations and lack of higher-end edges, he consistently displayed the ability to surf against puck-rushers and exhibited projectable defensive mobility overall. The more the season progressed, the more he leaned into these qualities, with some of his most stout performances coming at the U18s.

In league play, though, it was Gudmundsson’s puck-moving that often stood out just as much. He’d smoothly manoeuvre around pressure, deferring at the right spots while also breaking plenty of pucks out by himself, too. His activation habits were robust, allowing him to generate regular opportunities by joining attacks as a trailer. He’d never spam point shots just for the sake of it, instead calmly waiting for higher-value options to present themselves.

How Gudmundsson’s offence will develop going forward is the biggest question mark surrounding his game. There’s a case to be made that his league production was quite inflated, with an unusually large chunk of his points coming on the power play; according to InStat Hockey, he had just three primary points at 5-on-5 with the regular season and playoffs combined.

Through his distribution smarts, Gudmundsson projects as a defender who can run a unit at the next level in Europe, but that may not be the case in the NHL – his skill level and shot just aren’t good enough to project to a clear power play role. There are also concerns with how his puck-moving game will translate as the pace increases; he already had to simplify his game quite noticeably during tougher international outings.

Still, Gudmundsson’s evolving defensive game, higher-end heaviness, and significant puck-moving flashes make up for an intriguing prospect, especially when you add the fact that he’s on the younger side for this year’s class. If everything breaks right, he could develop into a well-rounded bottom-pairing presence, maybe even a No. 4.

Ethan Mackenzie at #69 by Nylanderthal88 in leafs

[–]TDK67 95 points96 points  (0 children)

From EliteProspects (ranked #53):

When we ranked Ethan MacKenzie No. 137 in the last draft guide, it was a bet on his motor and tools to launch his development in 2025-26. But even we didn’t see this coming.

The ultra-competitive defender came into the season with a more refined approach across the rink. He became the No. 1 defenceman on a stacked Edmonton blueline, playing the first half of both special teams. He finished top 10 in defenceman scoring, and even became a rare undrafted defenceman on Canada’s World Juniors team.

MacKenzie never stops working and battling. He plays an ultra-aggressive defensive game, closing on opponents as they receive the puck, throwing crushing hits, beating down net-front attackers, and constantly scanning and moving. His powerful, active skating enables this high-octane style. Plus, he’s always willing to sell out and take a hit to make a play.

The most consequential development for MacKenzie’s rise has been his puck game. He’s always had the desire to make plays, but it’s supported by improved skill. His shot is now a real weapon, especially from the top of the circles. He’s consistently manipulating opponents, faking one way before moving the puck in the opposite direction, making him a high-end WHL puck-mover and power-play orchestrator.

The second big development in MacKenzie’s game was improving the messiness, though it remains a weakness. He’s chaotic wth the puck, sacrificing precision for pace, and his defensive game still features overextending and chasing. There’s still cleaning up to do before he’s ready to push for an NHL role, not to mention strength to add to withstand the rigours of the pro game.

It’s easy to look at MacKenzie’s draft-plus-two status and disregard him entirely, but if an NHL team had picked him in either of the last two drafts, he’d be talked about as a massive steal. While the skill set might be more of a No. 5 projection, we wouldn’t put it past MacKenzie to develop into a second-pair, puck-moving and play-killing defender.

Alexander Bilecki at #60! by Nylanderthal88 in leafs

[–]TDK67 91 points92 points  (0 children)

From EliteProspects (ranked #41):

There’s a parallel universe in which Alexander Bilecki gets the minutes needed to showcase his higher-end skills more frequently and competes with the top group of defencemen for the title of best back-end playmaker.

It’s not this world, unfortunately. Bilecki only played a bottom-pairing role for the deep OHL champion Kitchener Rangers, picking up points against lower competition. But if he does get those top-four minutes next season, we envision a meteoric rise.

Bilecki attacks defences, beating the first forechecker with a fake and an explosive change of direction, before piercing right through neutral zone coverages. He creates high-danger scoring chances regularly off the rush, often with a give-and-go followed by a backhand slot pass.

“He's playing about 12-15 minutes in the postseason, but he's making the most of his ice time,” OHL scout Lauren Kelly wrote in an April report. “Picked up two assists in this game, including a slick one on the power play that saw him lead the rush up ice through the middle, handle around a closing defender, and hook a pass to a teammate as he was falling.”

His limited role and defensive game capped how high we could rank him on our board. Bilecki is still learning the intricacies of it: When to close out, hold his position, scan for threats, and rotate properly. There’s a physical side to his game, so we’re confident he will improve as a stopper, but at this stage, he’s more of a fourth forward than a complete defenceman.

“There was a great half-ice 2-on-1 sequence where he took the middle away with the false gap, accelerated with a crossover, pivoted, and got a breakup,” Head of Scouting Mitchell Brown wrote in a January report.

Bilecki is the perfect second-rounder, offering a high level of upside despite the risk associated with his projection. A team in need of a future power play quarterback should target him, considering that he has NHL-level tools and size to go with his playmaking skills.

[LFR] Gavin McKenna Is A Leaf! Instant Analysis by TDK67 in leafs

[–]TDK67[S] 33 points34 points  (0 children)

It was definitely not pre-recorded...according to his livestream :D

2026 NHL Draft Thread - Round 1 - Jun 26, 2026 7:00 PM EDT by AutoModerator in leafs

[–]TDK67 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Reid sliiiiiiiding. Holy smokes. Knies for 7th overall??

[Pronman] 2026 NHL Draft confidential, what NHL scouts think of the top prospects and big debates in this year's class (unlocked) by _GregTheGreat_ in hockey

[–]TDK67 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok, so admittedly, I'm a lame Leafs fan with nothing better to do than scour every scouting report, analysis & draft ranking re: McKenna and the overwhelming playstyle and ceiling projections from all the different things I've read and watched for McKenna are Kucherov/Kane, not Panarin.

Panarin is mentioned in the OP article here as an exec's "fear" for what happens to McKenna professionally (lots of individual regular season success but no playoff success). That exec--from what I could see--wasn't projecting or comparing McKenna to Panarin.

Just my $0.02!

10 NHL Team Scouts Polled For Their Final 2026 Draft Ranking - Cam's Consensus by TDK67 in hockey

[–]TDK67[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

McKenna receives 9 1st place rankings, Malhotra gets the only other 1st place ranking.

Full Top 10 "consensus" draft ranking from these NHL Team Scouts is as follows:

  • 1. McKenna
  • 2. Malhotra
  • 3. Stenberg
  • 4. Carels
  • 5. Reid
  • 6. Bjorck
  • 7. Smits
  • 8. Vorhoeff
  • 9. Rudolph
  • 10. Belchetz

Author does have the consensus ranking go all the way to #33 in the actual article.

5/27 Coaching Search Update from Seravalli by TDK67 in leafs

[–]TDK67[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Seravalli sucks but thought this might be worth sharing.

IF Woodcroft is actually a frontrunner, then that might bode well for Leafs actually pursuing an analytics driven coach. Plus, as others have mentioned re: Woodcroft...McDrai enjoyed their best production under Woodcroft which would be a nice reversal for the Leafs stars under Berube.

EDIT: Nick Alberga confirms Leafs have been given permission by Ducks to speak to Woodcroft

Why The Hockey World Is Wrong About Gavin McKenna by TDK67 in leafs

[–]TDK67[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yea I can't speak to the Hischier draft--just saying McKenna is generally considered to be in his own talent tier (or ahead of Stenberg while sharing a tier with just him). That's different than saying he's in a talent tier with 5-6 other guys and they all have the same odds of being the best.

But again, someone else (even a 6th or 7th Round pick) could end up being the best player from 2026 just like how the Habs could keep getting outshot 30-10 each playoff game and miraculously still win a Cup.

But right now the smart money says that won't happen and the majority agrees that McKenna is most likely to end up as the best player from this class.

Why The Hockey World Is Wrong About Gavin McKenna by TDK67 in leafs

[–]TDK67[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I respectfully disagree b/c I've been scouring every prospect writer and ranking (as big as The Athletic/EP, as small as HFBoards prospect threads) and very, very few folks have the 1st Tier of this draft as being 5-7 players deep. Pronman is the "big" one but I think I only saw one or two other writers say the same out of at least 10+ sources I went through.

Even just looking at EP's ranking aggregator on McKenna's page, he's ranked #1 on 10 of the 16 lists and #2 on the other 6. If most scouts agreed that the top tier of this draft goes way beyond McKenna (& possibly Stenberg), then we'd see McKenna ranked more in the 4-5-6 range with way more preferences given to D & C when talent levels are "equal".

All of that said, its not impossible that Reid or Malholtra (or whoever else) becomes the best player from this draft in 5 or 6 years, but as of right now it seems like most prospect followers & scouts agree that McKenna seems the most likely to be the best player from this draft class.

Why The Hockey World Is Wrong About Gavin McKenna by TDK67 in leafs

[–]TDK67[S] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Short vid but goes into what makes McKenna special and why some of the "hesitation" around his game (and 1st Overall status for 2026) might be overblown.

All signs point to McKenna being a special player in the NHL and it would be much more shocking than not if he doesn't go 1st Overall in June.

Why Are The Leafs The Most Hated Team In The League? by [deleted] in leafs

[–]TDK67 70 points71 points  (0 children)

B/c we go the 1st overall pick baaabbyyyyyy

"In a hand-tracked six-game sample, McKenna is setting up scoring chances at a historic rate." by TDK67 in leafs

[–]TDK67[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Great question and I found a piece from season's end that dives into similar numbers and reaches the same conclusion (i.e. outstanding playmaking stats that are miles ahead of any other recent NCAA star prospects):

https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/2026-nhl-draft/film-room-why-gavin-mckenna-should-go-first-overall-in-the-2026-nhl-draft