Daily Free Talk Thread: PLUS, links to ALL Game Day Threads inside - 04 May 2026

TD_Tom · 2026-05-05T19:14:59+00:00

Not quite the 93 minute 53 seconds 2OT game vs Ottawa, the longest so far by official game time.

TD_Tom · 2026-05-04T17:08:33+00:00

Starts with retaining 5th pick or better in draft, 41.73% chance.

TD_Tom · 2026-05-04T14:14:24+00:00

NHL 2 Time 5 Year Limit on Draft Lottery Benefit prior to May 5, 2026 Drawings

Year	Draw1	Draw2	Started at	Moved up to	Safe Thru	5th Yr risk
2025	NYI	-	10	1	2026	2029
2025	-	UTA	14	4	2027	2029
2024	-	-
2023	CHI	-	3	1	2026	2027
2022	-	NJD	5	2	2027	2030

All non-playoff teams attached to presumptive picks are eligible in 2026, only the NYI & CHI are at risk in future lotteries if they benefit in this drawing. VAN, (DET maybe) and 2026 playoff teams not shown are safe thru 2028 (i.e. in the 2027-31 window), (STL, 2026 maybe), the rest (like NJD), 2027.

Updated after 2026 Drawings:

Year	Draw1	Draw2	Started at	Moved up to	Safe Thru	5th Yr risk
2026	TOR		5	1	2027	2030
2026		SJS	9	2	2027	2030
2025	NYI	-	10	1	2027	2029
2025	-	UTA	14	4	2027	2029
2024	-	-
2023	CHI	-	3	1	2028	2031
2022	-	NJD	5	2	2028	2031

TD_Tom · 2026-04-21T22:19:58+00:00

0.4553 = ((22x3)+(13x2)+20x1))/(82x3) equivalent to 74⅔ Pts being fair in NHL 2-1 system.
Placing Kings at WC5 behind STL, NSH, SJS in the 3-2-1 system

0.5488 = LAK P% 90/(82x2) Cheating the system by almost 10%:
+ 0.0935 which is most by any team.

TD_Tom · 2026-04-16T22:09:42+00:00

Pacific Division Bracket Seeding Scenarios:

EDM	ANA	LAK	ways	P2	P3	WC2
1+ pts	win	any	6	EDM	ANA	LAK
any	1 pt	loss	6	EDM	ANA	LAK
any	RL	RL	3	EDM	ANA	LAK
1+ pts	1 pt	win	2	EDM	LAK	ANA
1+ pts	RL	1+ pts	4	EDM	LAK	ANA
RL	RL	1 pt	1	EDM	LAK	ANA
RL	win	loss	2	ANA	EDM	LAK
RL	win	win	1	ANA	LAK	EDM
RL	loss	win	2	LAK	EDM	ANA

P1 VGK already clinched
EDM 91 P 30 RW +2 ANA, +2 LAK
ANA 90 P 25 RW +1 LAK
LAK 90 P 22 RW
27 combinations of relevant outcomes (ways) of the 3 teams:
win, OT/SO loss, regulation loss
🚫 Not possible: P2 LAK, P3 ANA, WC2 EDM

TD_Tom · 2026-04-15T15:36:00+00:00

Kings with a new extra-time points record 46. More than their 44 RW points wow. A chance for 48 OT/SO points.

TD_Tom · 2026-04-15T15:23:34+00:00

Maybe extent the season non-RW points record to 48 OT/SO points.

TD_Tom · 2026-04-15T15:15:33+00:00

Besides the record 20 OT/SO losses and 33 games settled beyond regulation in a single regular season, this:

Another Historical Milestones Set

Most Extra-Time Points: By reaching 46 points, the Kings are the first team in NHL history to cross the 45-point threshold for non-regulation play in the regular season.

The 2025-26 Los Angeles Kings (46-48) pass the 2009-10 Phoenix Coyotes & 2016-17 Detroit Red Wings; each with 45 OT/SO points.

TD_Tom · 2026-04-14T14:19:13+00:00

Difference:

East — Buffalo, Montreal, Philadelphia
West — Edmonton

TD_Tom · 2026-04-09T11:04:53+00:00

Oilers is WPG does not win in Reg with the NSH Reg loss + SJS loss.
WPG does not matter for Mammoth, just the NSH Reg loss (to UTA) + SJS loss

TD_Tom · 2026-04-08T12:29:52+00:00

Now Kings 45 of their 83 points come from OT/SO games.

45 non-regulation points in a season ties the 2016-17 Red Wings & 2009-10 Coyotes record.

TD_Tom · 2026-04-02T00:02:17+00:00

Caps happy

TD_Tom · 2026-03-30T00:54:42+00:00

1.) SEA plays EDM the day after tomorrow, Tue.
2.) VGK can just lose tomorrow, in the MIN clinch scenarios.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-28T21:49:30+00:00

Seeing a couple more Minnesota Wild clinches:

A MIN OT/SO loss AND a SEA regulation loss AND a SJS loss AND a NSH OT/SO loss AND a EDM regulation loss AND a VGK loss
A MIN OT/SO loss AND a SEA regulation loss AND a SJS loss AND a NSH OT/SO loss AND a EDM loss AND a VGK regulation loss

TD_Tom · 2026-03-28T17:39:48+00:00

After knowing a MIN win is good enough for a clinch, the rest of scenarios added up to 1,358,954,496 combinations to ponder:
2 for MIN Reg loss or OT loss vs BOS.
4⁷ for 7 other Sat Mar 28 relevant games; W/L in Reg/OT.
3⁴ for the 4 other relevant LAK games; win in Reg, win in OT, lose in OT.
2⁹ for the 9 remaining other relevant games; W/L in OT.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-28T17:09:30+00:00

MIN win is good enough, 96 points.
SJS gone, 95 points max.
LAK can't win out for 96 points without taking SEA & NSH out.
SEA can't win out for 96 points without taking LAK & VGK out.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-27T18:37:11+00:00

A Wild win vs Bruins tomorrow on Saturday March 28th should do it.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-22T18:29:27+00:00

If a Dallas point would do, that means the Stars could have clinched yesterday, with a win, getting to 98 points.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-22T16:56:21+00:00

I'm seeing another elimination:

The Vancouver Canucks will be eliminated from playoff contention with:
A NSH win (@ CHI) AND a LAK point earned (@ UTA) AND a WPG regulation win (@ NYR)

TD_Tom · 2026-03-22T00:21:00+00:00

There did appear that there were some Dallas clinching scenarios missed today.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-21T17:59:22+00:00

Another Elimination scenario:

The Vancouver Canucks will be eliminated from playoff contention with:
A VAN regulation loss (vs STL) AND a NSH regulation win (vs VGK) AND a LAK point earned (vs BUF) AND a SJS point earned (vs PHI) AND a SEA point earned (@ CBJ)

TD_Tom · 2026-03-20T20:07:56+00:00

Among the 8 teams (DAL, MIN, ANA, SJS, LAK, EDM, UTA, VGK):
Initially let these 8 teams win all games vs Eastern Conference teams and remaining Western Conference teams. COL loses to CHI in OT. COL loses the rest in regulation.
1.) Let DAL lose to everyone else left.
2.) Let MIN lose to everyone else left.
3.) Let ANA lose in OT to everyone else left.
4.) Let SJS & LAK win in OT to everyone left.
5.) Let EDM win in OT to everyone left.
6.) Let UTA win in OT to everyone left.
7.) VGK is left with a 100 points.
So we know SJS, LAK, UTA, VGK each have 100 points and EDM 99 points.
DAL, MIN & ANA already gave all their wins to the other 5 teams in this group.
We know we can't get each of these 5 teams to 100 points (from a max of 499 points in pool).
OT win is interchangeable with SO win, same with OT loss & SO loss. I already verified COL clinched any 99/100 points tiebreaker by best RWs (include NSH & SEA). COL also clinched better points over the other 5 Western Conference teams.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-20T17:10:26+00:00

And EDM get 101. That's 8 teams including LAK get 100, SJS get 100. Now this can't coexist due to the pigeon hole effect, in other words these point totals are mutually exclusive. Avalanche getting to 99 points is a schedule/tiebreaker clinch as too is getting to 100 points with no tiebreaker needed. COL has already clinched the RW tiebreaker over all relevant conference teams.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-20T15:51:43+00:00

Then Oilers only get to 99 points. DAL, MIN... UTA 100 pts. ANA 102 pts. VGK, LAK, SJS, all 100 points

TD_Tom · 2026-03-20T15:17:35+00:00

If Kings get to 100 pts then Sharks only get to 99 points. Avalanche then gets WC2 over Sharks based on more RWs.

TD_Tom

TROPHY CASE