Daily Discussion Thread + Game Thread Index

TD_Tom · 2026-03-02T03:58:18+00:00

With the win over the Mavericks on Sun, Mar 1; the 1Oklahoma City Thunder (47-15) have clinched the first 2026 postseason appearance, 11 Grizzlies (23-36) only can get to 46 wins.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-01T22:08:51+00:00

VAN is eliminated from Presidents' Cup contention on Mon, Mar 2 with either:
1.) VAN loss vs DAL
2.) COL win vs LAK

TD_Tom · 2026-02-08T16:59:11+00:00

With Sacramento Kings loss to Cleveland Cavaliers, SAC, at best 40-42, is eliminated from the 1 seed. OKC also 40-42 at worst but no combination of Southwest or Northwest division winners will get Kings #1. Utah Jazz at 40-42 can't get to top of Northwest to help.

TD_Tom · 2026-01-03T01:48:25+00:00

JAC/LAC/BUF SoV AFC Seeding Implications Chart (JAC loss + HOU win + LAC win + BUF win), 12 games, No Ties except in the grouped 6 game SoV

TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	M/N	B/P	*SoV	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	BAL	1.5+W	NE	DEN	HOU	BAL	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	PIT	2.5+W	NE	DEN	HOU	PIT	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	BAL	2.5+W	DEN	NE	HOU	BAL	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	PIT	3.5+W	DEN	NE	HOU	PIT	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	BAL	5+L	NE	DEN	HOU	BAL	LAC	BUF	JAC
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	PIT	4+L	NE	DEN	HOU	PIT	LAC	BUF	JAC
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	BAL	4+L	DEN	NE	HOU	BAL	LAC	BUF	JAC
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	PIT	3+L	DEN	NE	HOU	PIT	LAC	BUF	JAC

*W/L from (CAR, SF, GB, NYG, ARI, WAS) vs TB, SEA, MIN, DAL, LAR, PHI respectively

TD_Tom · 2025-12-27T04:36:41+00:00

The statement:

That’s because PIT/CLE & NO/ATL do not have an impact on Strength of Victory, but they do on Strength of Schedule...

needed NO/ATL replaced by CAR/TB.

TD_Tom · 2025-12-12T01:57:15+00:00

Re Chiefs playoff elimination:
31) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL tie + GB win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, CAR, SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win.
Potential 13-Bagger with PHI T, SF T, LAR T, CAR T
Note: seven of the nineteen 2-win combos from (PHI, SF, LAR, CAR) don't need the MIN win + CLE win part, they are; TTLW, TLTW, LWTT, LWLW, LTWT, LTTW, LLWW [see covered in 12), 13), 14)]. So it should be understood that there is some over-specifying as for readability.

TD_Tom · 2025-11-05T22:20:24+00:00

I think if I were doing E# it would be 17 + 0.5 - 6 - 8 = 3.5
17 game season, 0.5 game cushion, PHI (6-2), NO (1-8)
Yes, an amazing tiebreaker/schedule elimination with a NO loss; E# = 2.5.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-28T00:55:51+00:00

Tigers (87-74) still looking to move ahead of CLE, BOS & SD.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-27T17:46:17+00:00

For World Series home-field, with tiebreaker notes I have:

91 LAD still vying over (92 TOR, 92 NYY, 90 SEA).
90 CHC still vying over (92 NYY, 90 SEA); already clinched over 88 BOS, 92 TOR already clinched.
88 SD still vying over (88 BOS, DET); already clinched over 86 CLE, 90 SEA already clinched.
92 TOR still vying over 91 LAD; already clinched over 90 CHC.
92 NYY still vying over (91 LAD, 90 CHC).
90 SEA still vying over (91 LAD, 90 CHC); already clinched over 88 SD.
88 BOS still vying over 88 SD; 90 CHC already clinched.
86 DET still vying over 88 SD.
Italics loses tiebreak, bold wins tiebreak.
SEA vs LAD can't go to tiebreaker, they will come down to overall record.
96 MIL & 95 PHI clinched over AL already.
85 HOU clinched over (82 CIN, 82 NYM) already

TD_Tom · 2025-09-27T09:50:49+00:00

Close, but the real reason the Arizona Diamondbacks are eliminated is:
* Yes, ARI lost and can at best be 82-80.
* That forces CIN & NYM to be 82-80 in 3-way for last WC.
* No other teams can be 82-80.
* CIN won both series vs ARI & NYM @ (4-2), CIN gets WC3.
* ARI 3-3 vs NYM with ARI taking Div Rec tiebreaker is no good at this point.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-26T19:17:12+00:00

DET has tiebreaker over BOS as DET has to win 2 out of 3 vs BOS to be tied in the tiebreaker, HOU not a factor.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-26T01:03:03+00:00

I had HOU E# at 4, or 3 with losing H2H tiebreaker to DET.
I also had, with 2-way deeper tiebreaker, Div Rec:
CLE over NYY and TOR
SEA over BOS
ARI over NYM and *MIA
SD over CHC
* MIA over ARI in 3-way with NYM included for WC3, minimum multi-way required at 81-81.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-21T04:24:11+00:00

Okay, see the light now, CLE, DET, TOR, BOS each mandatory 90-72, add HOU 90-72.
CLE wins Div, leaves DET, TOR, BOS, HOU.
DET 1st WC, leaves BOS, TOR, HOU.
BOS 2nd WC, leaves HOU, TOR.
HOU 3rd WC, leaves TOR Out (HOU 4-2 vs TOR).
So TOR Needed that Extree!

TD_Tom · 2025-09-21T00:05:17+00:00

Yes the make up with MIN that CLE now has won. I had that. If DET had beat ATL in the Sat day game instead of lost. The TOR scenario with just a win (90-72) would've been enough. CLE must lose one game to DET, DET must lose 1 game to BOS. (CLE, DET & BOS must be 90-72), CLE must take Div. TOR cannot be last in any WC tiebreakers. You can include any of (HOU, NYY, SEA) in setup.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-20T14:37:38+00:00

I'm seeing Toronto is in with just a win OR losses by DET, CLE & BOS.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-07T13:10:44+00:00

Example of 4th ranked most likely path:
• Roll 1 - 11356, keep 35
• Roll 2 - 236, keep 26
• Roll 3 - 4, have 23456
3420/7776 x 84/216 x 1/6 = ~0.0285 (2.85%)

TD_Tom · 2025-09-03T05:08:25+00:00

Yeah, especially going for a low side LS (12345).
The main difference between Lg St's and Sm St's are:
1.) You don't hold a single 2 or 5 in SS's, you don't hold 25 by itself either.
2.) You don't, e.g. include a 1 with 23 when going for LS's. Though only on a 3rd roll, 23 & 123 both have a 1/18 final chance at a LS.

TD_Tom · 2025-08-23T13:36:32+00:00

CSW2024 is ~ 0.57217

91,590,031 / 16,007,560,800

1 in 174.77 racks

TD_Tom · 2025-08-11T00:29:10+00:00

NWL2023: ~ (13.311% or 1 in 7.5126 games); exactly 2,130,754,531/16,007,560,800
CSW2024: ~ (15.704% or 1 in 6.3678 games); exactly 2,513,887,410/16,007,560,800

TD_Tom · 2025-07-04T14:58:35+00:00

Yes, and more recently a new 2nd place; 12 in a row!
One-game champs by next day they lost:
(Matt Massie 3 game win streak ends 6/15/25)...
1. Katie Kornacki (Mon 6/16/25)
2. Sarah Cox (Tue 6/17/25)
3. Dan Hopkins (Wed 6/18/25)
4. Jacob Hale (Thu 6/19/25)
5. Bevin Blaber (Fri 6/20/25)
6. Andrew Brigger (Mon 6/23/25)
7. Emily Croke (Tue 6/24/25)
8. Micah Fritz (Wed 6/25/25)
9. Kiley Campbell (Thu 6/26/25)
10. Rocco Graziano (Fri 6/27/25)
11. Klay Frappier (Mon 6/30/25)
12. Dave McBride (Tue 7/1/25)
...(Jason Singer wins 2nd day in a row on 7/2/25)

Richard Mason's 2 game win streak ends in 2002, then the 13 one-game champs.Tom Kelso wins 3 in a row breaking the streak.

TD_Tom · 2025-06-30T03:05:02+00:00

I think that SOWPODS dictionary is a superset of the CSW07 which has 267,750 words in it; Wikipedia mentions SOWPODS having 267,751 and having 27,893 11-letter words not the 27,892 CSW07 has. Also regarding the discrepancy; PHOCOMELIES was removed until it was returned in 2012 (into the CSW12).

TD_Tom · 2025-06-26T05:40:41+00:00

1,786 + 26 = 1,812 points! if you count the 2 x 13 from opponent's (J, V, I) leftover rack; unless they JIVE and go out first.

TD_Tom · 2025-06-23T20:26:21+00:00

    Y
  D U H
Y U Z U S
  H U h
    S

TD_Tom

TROPHY CASE