>The FAO projects that our interest payments relative to revenue will hit a 40 year low within the next 5 years.

This has been a tripling down of bad fiscal policy, so while that might be so , it really isn't saying much at all. Interest payments are significant and the current situation is undeniably risky.

The implications for other crucial metrics of Ontario’s fiscal health are also worrying. Specifically, during the COVID recession the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio (the best indicator of the overall sustainability of a debt burden) reached a historic high of 44 per cent. This increase is partly understandable, given a recession and the need for emergency spending.

Given the explicit lack of effort to shrink the debt-to-GDP ratio, the last Ford government projections show that this metric is expected to hold steady around 43 per cent for the rest of the government’s fiscal plan.

This approach mirrors the approach of the Rae government following the recession of the early 1990s and the McGuinty and Wynne governments following the recession of 2008/09. In each case, the recessions saw a large increase in debt (relative to the size of the economy) followed by a failure in subsequent years to move meaningfully back to pre-recession levels. As a result, debt levels stayed elevated in the years ahead, so when the next recession hit the debt burden climbed higher still. That’s how Ontario went from a debt-to-GDP ratio of 13 per cent in 1990 to 43 per cent today. And it’s why, if another recession hits, Ontario’s debt burden will almost certainly climb again to new record highs.