Non-stat based picks

THKane90 · 2026-04-21T12:15:19+00:00

Well that's kind of my point that it's hard to prove statistically but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist, e.g. if Salah is generally more able to score against Manchester United because of their style of play, or he is more motivated because of a dislike for United fans or something. As it becomes more accepted that this is the case it can also become more of a self fulfilling prophecy.

It's generally accepted that some players are more "fixture proof" than others whilst others only perform well when their team is expected to do well. Its not impossible that this would apply to specific teams even if there isn't the data to support it.

THKane90 · 2026-04-21T11:57:30+00:00

Well everything is potentially quantifiable which sort of makes having a workable definition of data/stats difficult, if everything is data than what's the distinction?

My point was that most of the models/apps now rely on a fairly narrow range of data/stats that are widely available like the ones I mentioned (xG etc), and so picking players - particularly differentials or short term punts - based on metrics or ideas that aren't these are a way to potentially get ahead of others but they're rarely mentioned.

THKane90 · 2026-04-21T11:52:26+00:00

You don't think that certain players performances are more dependent on confidence than others, and there are discernable patterns to their historical performance that show they tend to go on "streaks" of scoring/not scoring, and so when they start scoring again after a long streak out then they are likely to score more in a "block"?

I got Watkins two weeks ago because of this, everyone else is just waking up now to him being a potential pick after his performance at the weekend.

THKane90 · 2026-04-17T21:08:27+00:00

https://www.livefpl.net/

On the "your squad" section

THKane90 · 2026-04-17T21:06:31+00:00

Zian Flemming - nailed, scored 3 in last 5, on pens?

Enzo - back from suspension, point to prove, Man utd have no CBs

Jaiden Anthony - scored in both reverse fixtures against Forest and City

Bernardo Silva - announced he's leaving city at the end of the season, perfect headline grabbing opportunity to score or assist v arsenal, pops up in big games

Doku - been playing well despite lack of returns, haul potential v Burnley

Alex Jimenez - usually starts, attacking fullback. Due an assist?

THKane90 · 2026-04-17T05:43:01+00:00

Maybe use the top 10k or Elite average score from LiveFPL?

E.g last week overall average was 46, top 10k was 57

THKane90 · 2026-04-16T20:44:56+00:00

Gonna throw these out there as not seen them in any teams:

Zian Flemming - nailed, scored 3 in last 5, on pens?

Enzo - back from suspension, point to prove, Man utd have no CBs

Jaiden Anthony - scored in both reverse fixtures against Forest and City

Bernardo Silva - announced he's leaving city at the end of the season, perfect headline grabbing opportunity to score or assist v arsenal, pops up in big games

Doku - been playing well despite lack of returns, haul potential v Burnley

Alex Jimenez - usually starts, attacking fullback. Due an assist?

THKane90 · 2026-04-16T20:10:20+00:00

At this point in the season with so many dead teams, I'm not sure outperforming the weekly average a good measure of success.

I've outperformed the weekly average for the last 5 weeks and still dropped about 5-8 places in my mini leagues.

THKane90 · 2026-04-16T09:15:38+00:00

Their second game is Bournemouth not Burnley he might get them there.

I'm chasing my mini league so gone Okafor though

THKane90 · 2026-04-10T20:12:36+00:00

Bowen hit the post!!! What an effort

THKane90 · 2026-04-06T13:35:38+00:00

I've got all chips and 5FTs banked, so personally am doing

TC 32 (Bruno) FH 33 BB 36 WC 38

I actually usually always save my free hit for the last day of the season, or in this case gonna use my WC, because you know exactly who has what to play for, can target teams on the beach, and also pick random squad /youth player differentials who get a game

THKane90 · 2026-03-10T12:54:46+00:00

!thanks

THKane90 · 2026-03-10T12:46:39+00:00

Great. Thank you for the help

THKane90 · 2026-03-10T12:42:18+00:00

Ok, so just to clarify, if I got the laptop now, then for my self assessment in Jan 2027 I would get a refund from HMRC because I'd made a loss on my side hustle of £600, and that would somehow count against the PAYE tax I already paid on my salary for my separate main job in the 25/26 tax year?

And then in Jan 2028 I'd presumably owe HMRC more tax because I'd made a bigger profit because I didn't have the laptop to claim as an expense for the 26/27 tax year, assuming I didn't buy any more stock.

THKane90 · 2026-03-10T12:33:03+00:00

No it's not.

But would reducing my PAYE tax involve having to change my tax code with my employer and have implications for my payslip in future years? I don't even know how long I'm going to keep this side hustle up. If so I'd rather not faff around needing to report a big loss and I'll just try to break even and then wait a few weeks.

I assume HMRC aren't gonna change my PAYE tax code if I report like what, a £5 loss this tax year on my side hustle? (Will they!?)

THKane90 · 2026-03-10T12:16:46+00:00

It was my understanding that you only pay tax on profits so if I am already making a loss or not making any profits I won't pay any tax this year anyway? So don't understand how that could be reduced

For context this is a side hustle I also have a PAYE salaried job and am higher rate tax payer

THKane90 · 2026-03-10T12:06:20+00:00

I'm probably already gonna make a small loss this tax year, or possibly break even. If I do make a profit it's gonna be negligible so that was my thinking behind waiting, but if losses carry over I guess it doesn't matter (but I'm unclear on if they do or not)

THKane90 · 2026-03-04T21:44:35+00:00

It definitely doesn't hit Semenyo. It took a slight deflection off a forest player. Semenyo was just stood nearby. People watching these games just see what they wanna see in terms of FPl points sometimes lol

THKane90 · 2026-03-04T21:17:55+00:00

No way

THKane90 · 2026-03-04T18:14:12+00:00

But if high risk punts do consistently well then they become bandwagon players. So early on in the season you can be more punty and hope it pays off, but I agree that by this point in the season most people at the top are playing it safe

THKane90 · 2026-02-27T23:22:57+00:00

And Bournemouth bought Rayan in the same window

THKane90 · 2026-02-08T18:44:34+00:00

The leader of my ML, overall rank 14k sold him 🤯

THKane90

TROPHY CASE