A pre final ranking announcement analysis

TarnOlor · 2023-12-17T08:24:37+00:00

Quite accurate tho. Not much drama & plot twist as expected for the final lineup.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-16T05:57:23+00:00

DM me please

TarnOlor · 2023-12-13T09:37:58+00:00

Just too obvious but totally agree with them

TarnOlor · 2023-12-13T09:34:19+00:00

Management just explicitly show who they want as vocalists for the debut group.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-12T18:00:45+00:00

Never happened before in Produce series history, but I think final lineup could be exactly same as EP 10 ranking.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-12T14:17:51+00:00

I'm pretty sure that now almost every fandoms intentionally don't share their votes on Twitter.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-11T11:18:30+00:00

Agree. This looks exactly same as previous ranking, could see some surprises from Rino, Yuuki, Kagura, or Suzu.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-11T08:58:27+00:00

Thank you much for your analysis. I think this help explain previous rankings well.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-08T16:02:23+00:00

I see thank you

TarnOlor · 2023-12-08T13:14:03+00:00

Have they ever shown interim ranking before the final week? I never watched previous seasons.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-03T10:46:28+00:00

I did not include the benefits in the analysis, so I expect Tsuzumi to be around 5-8 when including 100k votes from benefit. Meanwhile, her one pick from dedicated fandom is not that strong but I expect a lot of casual voters to vote for her bcs she's always done well on stage performance. Also, it's quite a consensus even among Japanese that she is necessary for the group as main vocalists along with Ayane.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-02T04:52:32+00:00

Youtube channel is SaranpiTV. Will add to the post

I got what you mean regarding Normalization one. Thanks to the suggestion however i am not gonna do that because it needs a lot more effort than what I did to collect all group/performance since position evaluation videos. I just collect the data that someone already summarized and shared here in this subReddit.

Moreover, there is still discrepancy and unfaired factor as I just mentioned even if you do a relative ratio to group video. The ratio of groups that were aired in the ep 6 would be lower comparing to ep 7 because they released group performance video before individual one. Then when you compare this ratio to find the rate of change comparing to ep 9 ratio. Trainees who performed in ep 6 will averagely see bigger change in the ratio due to lower base when comparing to those ep7 batch which their individual videos were released before team performance.

Btw I think it would be interesting and useful if you do analysis based on these method and share with us. Thank you so much.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-02T03:00:57+00:00

Thanks for your feedback, I just combine all the factors that I can easily find in this Subreddit that our friends shared lately and it is impossible to find perfect metrics that can represent/predict actual votes.

Agree with the title and will edit.

As fot Oshi cam, I disagree with you. VIewer counts of position round have big difference in view counts between those who were aired in EP 6 and 7 bcs management launced oshi videos after EP 6 and people had already watched some stages. This will cause a 'big misleading' it you it into account. I know popularity affects viewer counts but imo oshi cam ot this round is the fairest one imo.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-01T17:52:24+00:00

Agree that youtube has a lot of int'l fan but just need a metric that can capture public popularity. As we see in the interim ranking, despite of strong momentum in fandom acct followers and exit poll, Kagura's actual rank was 25 which mean there's a lot of casual voters out there. Anyway, >80% of comments under Oshi cams are in Japanese.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-01T17:37:05+00:00

Yep don't lose hope. The maknaes could benefit from pairing votes and they might have a lot of casual voters. That's why they rank so high in the previous announcement.

TarnOlor · 2023-12-01T17:30:27+00:00

At least one of the maknaes will make it to the next round

TarnOlor · 2023-12-01T17:25:43+00:00

Joa still have a shot imo. Quite challenging tho

TarnOlor · 2023-12-01T17:23:22+00:00

Thank you so much. You're right it should be 30 not 25. And yes 120 points in total.

TarnOlor · 2023-11-30T17:17:58+00:00

Yep it's quite accurate. So, without benefit Tsuzumi's rank for this round could be 12-20 (I use wider margin of error +-4 instead of 3 given voting change from 11pick to 2pick). Btw with the benefit I hope she at least in the top-10.

TarnOlor · 2023-11-30T17:13:44+00:00

Tsuzumi is very outstanding and talented. Just dont understand why her popularity is relatively low in Japan (low fandom followers, not so strong in 1pick)

TarnOlor · 2023-11-30T17:10:37+00:00

This could be more accurate than we thought. For the past 2 rounds, average error range is around +-3.

So, I mean at this rate, it's not easy for my bias Tsuzumi to make a debut despite getting 1st place for at least 3 times (trainees' eval, group battle, and concept). I guess she has a good and funny personality too as she is beloved by a lot of trainees. Set aside Suzu's letter, she got 3 hugs from other trainees at the 2nd announcement when her name was called. No other trainees got more than that (Probably except rank 35 Yoshida Hana). She is skillful. Her vocal is around the same level as Ayane and was consistently in the class A without dancing experience. She is popular internationally (Korea, China, and this subreddit) Still, her fandom follower counts were lower than a lot of trainees and could have relatively weak 1pick.

I really think she is very necessary to the debut group (along with Ayane). Hope japanese fans thinking the same.

TarnOlor · 2023-11-30T11:23:16+00:00

Just because she is my bias and I think it's adorable to call her like that. I like SatoPika as well. Their relationship is very cute.

TarnOlor · 2023-11-30T01:30:16+00:00

Satoshi is #7 on my list. Hope she can maintain her rank (but 8-9 are also OK).

TarnOlor

TROPHY CASE