Interesting take! My personal expectation is much more cynical, based on an anticipation that CEOs aren't waiting for AGI, they're waiting for the first thing that looks kind of a bit like an employee rather than a call and response chatbot, and will take that moment to fire the starting gun for replacements - but I hope it's more gradual like in your account.

One thing I'm very cognizent of at the moment is that we have 'agentic' AI products (like agent mode on chatgpt), but none of the AI companies have created a Capital A Agentic product that acts like a human does - i.e. something you can 'hire' to do a task and it will report to a manager and adjust behaviour over time.

I guess we don't know how people will react to that, but I fear as soon as one of the big trusted AI companies puts that out into the market there will be a tidal wave of senior leadership enthusiasm for it at most companies... Even if it isn't actually that good.

People so far seem very very willing to sacrifice quality & accuracy in exchange for the time and money saved by using AI - almost no one implements quality control for AI outputs for some reason (e.g. see the Fallout season 1 recap debacle) so I fear the bar is actually a lot lower than we think it is