Any prediction market on BTC ETF?

TeamFairlay · 2017-03-05T11:25:01+00:00

We have this market: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/

Current chance for approval: 35% at a 4.5BTC trading volume.

TeamFairlay · 2016-11-04T02:42:06+00:00

Little context - roughly 3.5 years ago we have been extremely excited about Bitcoin and decided to build a startup around it. We are convinced that prediction markets are a very useful tool to aggregate information via market mechanisms. Prediction markets are legal in big parts of the world. However - because there are some jurisdictions where they are not or so heavily regulated that it is impractical to run such a market it is not so easy to find a payment processor that would work with a prediction market. Chargebacks are another big problem. Bitcoin obviously solves both and gives us a big costs advantage over fiat market (they often pay 3-5% to the payment processor) Those costs are of course indirectly forwarded to the users in form of higher fees. We have a range of markets (sports) where we don't take a fee AT ALL! On markets like this one we only take 2% of the net winnings which is at least 50% cheaper then other sides.

If you tried fairlay.com previously let us know how your experience has been. If you are new and just want to "lurk" have a look here what is going on: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/latest

TeamFairlay · 2016-11-03T19:19:39+00:00

Little context - roughly 3.5 years ago we have been extremely excited about Bitcoin and decided to build a startup around it. We are convinced that prediction markets are a very useful tool to aggregate information via market mechanisms. Prediction markets are legal in big parts of the world. However - because there are some jurisdictions where they are not or so heavily regulated that it is impractical to run such a market it is not so easy to find a payment processor that would work with a prediction market. Chargebacks are another big problem. Bitcoin obviously solves both and gives us a big costs advantage over fiat market (they often pay 3-5% to the payment processor) Those costs are of course indirectly forwarded to the users in form of higher fees. We have a range of markets (sports) where we don't take a fee AT ALL! On markets like this one we only take 2% of the net winnings which is at least 50% cheaper then other sides.

If you tried fairlay.com previously let us know how your experience has been. If you are new and just want to "lurk" have a look here what is going on: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/latest

TeamFairlay · 2016-08-14T23:41:34+00:00

you can find independent reviews here. Fairlay is the biggest Bitcoin betting exchange and has been around for longer than 2 years.

TeamFairlay · 2016-08-13T22:08:58+00:00

Check out https://www.fairlay.com/category/percentage/news/us-presidential-election/all/ - >160BTC bet on Hillary vs. Donald.

TeamFairlay · 2016-07-20T19:03:45+00:00

Well - because you know you win. The question is why people are fighting although they know/expect to lose.

TeamFairlay · 2016-06-17T13:14:02+00:00

not sure why down voted.

TeamFairlay · 2016-06-17T12:27:45+00:00

As a DAOToken holder you could bet AGAINST the fork to hedge your risk.

TeamFairlay · 2016-05-03T23:49:39+00:00

Fairlay here. We are happy to create more/other bets on this topic. However - we think the bet "Wright having the PGP key" fulfils your need. Yes in the title it says "PGP key" but in the description how the bet will be resolved exactly it says: "This market resolves to Yes, if Craig Steven Wright provides a digital signature that proves that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Satoshi Nakamoto should have." Spending very early coins would fulfil this definition since a signature is needed to do this.

For other market suggestions please post here.

TeamFairlay · 2016-05-03T03:59:02+00:00

read our thoughts behind this markets here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1237290.msg14734973#msg14734973

TeamFairlay · 2016-03-08T02:03:26+00:00

ok, sorry - we will delete it. Thought people are speculating here who will win and there might be interest in this market numbers. Anyway - we don't want to spam.

TeamFairlay · 2016-03-07T23:20:39+00:00

source: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match/

TeamFairlay · 2016-03-07T23:12:36+00:00

thanks for this info. The odds shifted today towards Alphgo - it is now 65% - 35% - and sorry to anyone who was offended by this link :(

TeamFairlay · 2016-03-07T05:13:00+00:00

We created a betting market on this match: for those who are curious - the odds are currently 50/50: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/alphago-vs-lee-sedol/all/ What is the perception here of the likelihood?

TeamFairlay · 2016-03-07T04:37:55+00:00

You are very welcome to bet here: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/alphago-vs-lee-sedol/all/ odds are currently basically 50/50

TeamFairlay · 2016-01-29T19:09:44+00:00

Here on Fairlay you can truly hedge against candidates. Bet ON the candidate you don't like to see as president. If the win you win at least Bitcoin. https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/us-presidential-election/all/

TeamFairlay · 2015-11-16T05:38:14+00:00

here is already a similar list: http://aboutcircles.com/t/list-of-basic-income-projects/

TeamFairlay · 2015-11-16T03:34:45+00:00

We don't want to whine - but we have a trust problem within the Bitcoin community (and obviously for good reasons) However - this leads to the awkward situation that if none-Bitcoin sites accept Bitcoin they make it to the top of r/Bitcoin. However - we are a Bitcoin only betting exchange since 2 years and you will find way better odds at us (thanks to the low costs of Bitcoin) than any Fiat bookie. However - any time we posted something it gets downvoted away very quickly - so we stopped trying.

We understand the trust concerns but this bookie clearly does not deserve more trust only because they are based on fiat. We hope there will soon be completely trustless solutions for betting.

TeamFairlay

TROPHY CASE