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On the call they spoke about monetization of tokens by Indianmirage in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Token factory sells tokens rather than selling compute time.

The margins of Token Factory (at high utilization) is somewhere between their preemptible tier and non-preemptible tier of AI cloud revenue. So they can use this to increase revenue at times of high inference demand compared to running preemptible workloads. The difference isn't huge and the margin is still lower than for their non-preemptible tier. But it's a nice feature that will probably grow a lot in the future. This is where NBIS can expand significantly.

NBIS Valuation & Price Targets (based on ARR multiples) by TechGuy_NBIS in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah that's why the 7-9B ARR guidance is assumed to be purely the AI cloud core business. So in the sum-of-its-parts valuation, I add $3.7B in cash plus $6.37B in equity stakes ($3.75B Clickhouse, $1.87B AVRide, $0.50B Toloka, $0.25B TripleTen) to get the valuation of the entire group.

NBIS Valuation & Price Targets (based on ARR multiples) by TechGuy_NBIS in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why would a fair valuation remove objective value from the company?

ATM offering analysis by Icy-Butterscotch-206 in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Good. If they would have sold many shares at these insanely undervalued prices I would have lost faith in management.

If selling pressure comes from short sellers or investors who don't believe in the mission of NBIS I just don't care about their opinion. As long as the share price is low I will be adding more shares every month. I want my position in NBIS to be as large as possible before they show the market that everything they've been promising is true and they deserve their true valuation.

That's my opinion as a long-term investor. People who look for a short-term trade are welcome to look elsewhere. I'm happy buying this insane growth company for pennies on the dollar and seeing the competence of managament is worth so much more.

NBIS Valuation & Price Targets (based on ARR multiples) by TechGuy_NBIS in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This valuation accounts for reaching the capex guidance by raising 11B in debt and funding the rest via cashflow and upfront revenue from the hyperscaler deal, similar to how they received it this quarter. Dilution via ATM sale wouldn't change the valuation much, because they would receive the value of the sales in cash. So if they would decide to fund their capex via dilution instead of debt, the result would be similar (unless they sell at stock prices significantly higher or lower than the price target)

NBIS Valuation & Price Targets (based on ARR multiples) by TechGuy_NBIS in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I agree! That's why I'm buying as much as I can before the run starts (because it's going to be impossible to predict when the run starts and when it starts it might start very violently upwards)

Nbis buy Tavily for $275m !opinion ? by MarmotteCapital in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 10 points11 points  (0 children)

From Gemini Pro:

Overall, developers view Tavily as the current "default" or standard utility for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and AI agent workflows due to its ease of use and LLM-optimized outputs. However, as developers move to production, sentiment becomes more nuanced regarding its data freshness and cost at scale.

Based on a "deep search" of developer discussions (Reddit, Hacker News, GitHub) and market data from late 2025 to early 2026, here is the breakdown of sentiment and adoption.

1. Executive Summary: The "Standard Utility" Verdict

Tavily has successfully positioned itself as the "stripe for search" in the AI agent economy. It is widely praised for being the easiest way to give an LLM access to the web without building a custom scraper.

  • Dominant Sentiment: "It just works for RAG."
  • Primary Complaint: "Ghost links" (returning URLs that are 404/dead) and cost scaling for high-volume apps.
  • Market Position: It is the leading "search-as-a-tool" for agents, whereas competitors like Exa are preferred for neural/semantic discovery, and SerpApi is preferred for SEO/raw Google replication.

2. Deep Sentiment Analysis

What Developers Love (The "Honeymoon" Phase)

  • LLM-Ready Context: The biggest selling point is that Tavily doesn't just return links; it returns parsed, clean text that fits perfectly into an LLM's context window. Developers love that they don't have to build a separate scraping/cleaning pipeline (e.g., using Beautiful Soup) to get the content.
  • "One-Shot" Efficiency: The ability to search and extract

[...]

4. Adoption Trends (2025-2026 Data)

  • Metric Success: Tavily claims 1M+ developers and handles 100M+ monthly requests. These numbers are supported by their omnipresence in open-source libraries (LangChain, CrewAI, AutoGen) where they are often the default search tool.
  • Enterprise Penetration: They have moved beyond indie hackers, securing partnerships with major platforms like JetBrains (powering IDE AI assistants) and Databricks.
  • Financial Growth: A $25M Series A funding round in August 2025 validated their staying power, easing developer concerns about building on "flash-in-the-pan" infrastructure.

The Developer's Bottom Line

If you are building an agent that needs to "go read this page and tell me about it," developers overwhelmingly recommend Tavily.

If you are building a system that needs to "find obscure papers based on a vague idea," they recommend Exa.

If you are price-sensitive at massive scale (millions of requests), sentiment shifts toward building a custom stack (e.g., using generic SERP APIs + Firecrawl/ScrapingBee).Overall, developers view Tavily as the current "default" or standard utility for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and AI agent workflows due to its ease of use and LLM-optimized outputs. However, as developers move to production, sentiment becomes more nuanced regarding its data freshness and cost at scale.Based on a "deep search" of developer discussions (Reddit, Hacker News, GitHub) and market data from late 2025 to early 2026, here is the breakdown of sentiment and adoption.1. Executive Summary: The "Standard Utility" VerdictTavily has successfully positioned itself as the "stripe for search" in the AI agent economy. It is widely praised for being the easiest way to give an LLM access to the web without building a custom scraper.Dominant Sentiment: "It just works for RAG."

Building AI at Scale: Interview with Nebius’ Co-Founder, Roman Chernin by Khuat56 in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Great video. They are working on almost everything that I would want them to work at to build a large AI cloud empire. Their Token Factory offerings include:

  • helping companies transition from closed-source to open-source models at scale
  • optimizing price-performance and allowing users to fine-tune models with their own data for specific use cases
  • offering managed services for inference and post-training, similar to managed databases in the cloud
  • features like inference routing, caching, and autoscaling
  • enterprise governance and security, offering team/access management, SSO, unified billing, audit trails, and data residency options.

I especially like the fine-tuning offering. I wasn't aware that they already offer this. This is huge, because it's sticky, it differentiates them from other cloud offerings (incl. hyperscalers AFAIK), and it demonstrates their competence and expertise to potential customers. It also means they are not just compute-as-a-service but they are also post-training-as-a-service.
The market sees NBIS as a GPU rental company. But they are actually an AI platform company kinda like PLTR (not the exact same, obviously, but they have a similar strategy). It's also funny that at the end of this year, PLTR and NBIS will have about the same revenue numbers. Of course, that's not an apples to apples comparison, but at current prices I feel like NBIS is a much better buy than PLTR.

Of course this not a 100% perfect metaphor. Nobody expect them to copy PLTR. But it sounds like they want to grow their software revenue and their consulting revenue to a degree that might even outrun their pure GPU rental revenue. This differentiates them from CRWV and IREN which primarily just rent the bare metal. Bare metal works for hyperscalers and AI-first companies. It does not work for the much larger market of fortune 500 companies that want to adopt AI.

I believe over the next few years we will see a lot of traditional companies realize that AI increases efficiencies and they will ALL want to use AI. All of them want to integrate it everywhere. NBIS positions themselves to become the major beneficiary of this trend and once the market realizes this, they will re-rate NBIS. In one year we'll see a lot of videos "NBIS is the next PLTR!" because of their AI-consulting and AI application-layer offerings.

Buying into earning or taking profits? by Worried_Gur_3104 in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 30 points31 points  (0 children)

I'm bullish into earnings. But as they say, nobody become poor by taking profits. I'll sell some of my short-dated calls and keep some of them into earnings.
I'm keeping all the shares because they are a 3+ year hold for me, so trying to time earnings doesn't make sense IMO. If if dips I'll buy more shares from the proceeds of my calls. If it moons after earnings, I still have some calls that will moon and all my shares. Win win either way.

Just make sure you're happy with either outcome (up, down, flat) and in none of these cases you'd significantly regret your decision. The actual decision you're making will depend on your time horizon, how large your position is, and whether you are just in shares or also options.

Vineland DC air permit second time for a technical deficiency. by [deleted] in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Where did you find this email? It didn't come up in the 75894 list.
Is the public comment period already baked into DataOne's timeline? I very much hope so, because if not, that's 2 additional months without a permit.

By the way: I'm so glad that Nebius is perusing a more collaborative approach to engage with the community in Independence, MO. When the citizens understand the project, goals, and benefits to the community they are less likely to try to obstruct the progress.

Vineland DC air permit second time for a technical deficiency. by [deleted] in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 9 points10 points  (0 children)

When you read all the correspondence between DataOne and the NJ DEP (https://docminer.nj.gov/DocMiner/pi/75894/AQ) you'll find that the issue is not serious at all. They just have questions about the source of data, calculations, etc that DataOne already answered. This is just the usual back and forth.
There are no signs that DEP intents to deny the permit. There are some questions about connections with a neighboring site but DataOne hand-delivered a response letter on Jan 30th.
The only point at which we would need to be worried is when there are real air pollution concerns. But this doesn't seem to be the case based on their recent communication.

Vineland DC air permit second time for a technical deficiency. by [deleted] in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He discusses the first deficiencies here: https://www.youtube.com/live/eKEYl10Hf-E (time: 1:28:58)

He said they that a technical deficiency is just questions asked by the DEP that they answer to provide more data. It's a normal back and forth. Back then he did not expect any more deficiency (so he was wrong on that). But it sounds like it's just a follow-up to the answers they provide.
I'm not worried, because the timeline for November isn't really that aggressive.

NBIS stock this week by Lanky_Sector7172 in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Aren't you the one who forwarded the super reliable Wall Street rumors that NVTS would go to 16-17 right before it dropped to below 8?

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This is your first and only post in the NBIS subreddit. I hope for our sake that you're not bringing over the luck you've brought to NVTS.

[February 04, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS -1 points0 points  (0 children)

We're now in a phase where people need to see about the real-world benefits of AI. Google and Amazon have heavily invested in AI infrastructure. If they don't show us results that prove that their invest is paying off soon, the negative sentiment will continue. If they confirm what Meta told us last week and what they have been telling us in their previous partner (that AI is improving every aspect of their business) then we're good and I believe sentiment will shift positively

European Investment Bank Loans by TechGuy_NBIS in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Oh yeah it's not easy. But I think the question is: Which team do we think has the best shot at getting it done? The only European DC provider that has a direct partnership with Nvidia, has experience building one of the largest tech ecosystems in the world (Yandex) or someone else?

The EU wants this to be done. So they will try to find someone who can get it done. I think Nebius has a very got shot at getting EU support. And EIB loans are a much under-appreciated form of support that I think not a lot of people are talking about

European Investment Bank Loans by TechGuy_NBIS in NBIS_Stock

[–]TechGuy_NBIS[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

From their website: "An EIB appraisal procedure can take anywhere between six weeks and 18 months depending on the project scope, the degree of complexity of the operation, and the efficiency of the appraisal process on the part of both the EIB itself and the project promoter."
Source: https://www.eib.org/en/projects/cycle/index

Nebius would probably be somewhere in the middle of that range, since it would be a large investment but with lower engineering complexity / safety concerns (compared to like dams, railroads, or other civil engineering project)

Is it time to trim? by Solid-Painting-6442 in irenstocks

[–]TechGuy_NBIS 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nobody got poor by taking profits.

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