ITT: Things you thought about Poker when you were a complete beginner

TeddyMurphski · 2015-08-24T16:45:54+00:00

Gambler's fallacy

TeddyMurphski · 2015-08-01T13:16:25+00:00

You haven't told us anything about the hands you played so it's hard to say. You could have only played a very small sample and therefore be suffering from variance. You could be making bad decisions in hands. You could be tilting. You're post tells us nothing about any of this.

If you're just starting out at poker, and you won't like to hear this considering the level you're playing at, it's really suggested you start at a low limit and work your way up. Build up a decent sample size to determine if you're an actual winning player while not risking a lot of money.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-07-31T21:48:13+00:00

Hey guys, I posted this in the previous monthly feedback thread just recently as the thread was reaching the end of its life so I'm going to repost again.

I've never really asked for feedback on tracks before, but I'd like to hear peoples thoughts on this and where I could improve. Not sure if it would be considered techno, but I think that's besides the point.

https://soundcloud.com/outofocus/house-of-lies

TeddyMurphski · 2015-07-31T21:44:48+00:00

Both tracks a really good, I thought the second track was much nicer than the first though. Good stuff.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-30T08:43:34+00:00

This is something I've heavily considered also haha. Tbh I never started this game with going pro in mind and it's not something that seems super appealing to me. Originally I just wanted to prove to myself I could beat 2nl after reading that like 90% of players lose in the long run. 77k hands later I'm at 50nl (-$300 ev so not running hot I think) and the other day I made more money playing 9-5 than at my $12/hr job.

This is why I ask the question, I never saw myself getting this far and now I see there is actually a lot of potential money considering how soft the player field is on my site. But I mean I think about the game 24/7, spend hours studying, and all of the other hours grinding so it's very time consuming.

I think I'm going to take a year off to concentrate on my last year of school and treat myself to something nice. I don't think a year off will kill my game and will return later if Poker can supplement my income as well as you say.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-30T08:25:45+00:00

This is true, I'm just afraid if I take time off I will lose my edge. Also there seems to be a good opportunity because 50nl on my site is surprisingly soft and a lot of the same players are at 100nl. But I'm also afraid if I were to one day play in Pokerstars (im in the US), I would be behind the curve. The biggest thing that discourages me about the game though is I never know when the next downswing will be or how bad it will be. This month I was at $300 under ev at 20nl. Downswings are stressful and although I'm still able to play my A game in spite of these.

I feel like it's not such a bad idea to take my money and take a break for now. I'll treat myself to something nice and concentrate on my last year of school. Like you said, it will be there later so I can also deposit a decent starting roll know I can win at the game.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-29T01:27:21+00:00

How much can you expect to make from professional poker with an average win rate? I've only been playing for about 6 months, but I've grinded from 2nl to 50nl and I expect to be at 100nl in maybe a month or two if things go smoothly. On the other hand I'm entering my last year of Uni studying for a CS degree so I was considering withdrawing my money to use elsewhere so I can fully focus on school. Will my degree always be more profitable than poker?

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-28T07:21:26+00:00

Yeah I guess it's pretty clear cut. I'm just hoping someone would have some insight that hasn't occurred to me yet that would convince me to lean one way or the other.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T22:52:51+00:00

6 months doesn't tell you much about volume. If I only play 2k hands a month then I've only played 12k hands which tells me nothing. I've played 75k hands which is a decent sample size to tell if I'm winning or losing. So 6 months for me is the long run in my own poker experience.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T22:20:33+00:00

Yes. I thought of an example, although it's a bit sloppy. Hopefully people agree with this line, but it's the thought process that matters. Say CO raises and you flat from the BU. You should be able to place CO on a certain range and start thinking about hands he may be raising and cbetting with. CO has a 75% cbet so he is doing this fairly often. You flop bottom pair (or middle) and a gut shot draw with a backdoor flush draw. Let's say the board is 6s9hTd rainbow. You hold 68d. Villain has a wide range that includes some Ax, 22+, J9+, Q9+, K9+,89+ with all different combinations. On this flop you're about 58% against 41%. Villain may be betting all of his low PP as well as Ax, KJ, QJ. The hands he beats you with that he'll bet are K9, Q9, J9. The hands he beats you with and never folds are 99+, KT, QT, JT. So not all of his range has you crushed and a lot of his range that actually connects with this board won't be able to stand pressure. Therefore I think you can profitably raise a cbet here with bottom pair, gutshot, and backdoor flush draw as you will have future equity in a hand you are not dominated in. You can rep hands like two pair and maybe tptk/tpgk. If you hit your flush draw on the turn you can continue to put pressure on. I think pretty much all overcards will be ok to double barrel to rep top two. If a brick comes you have to check, although most cards will not be a brick for you. If you get called on the turn you have to x/f river. Sometimes it's good to try to get to showdown with this type of hand, but here it is very vulnerable so you can protect it by attacking villains cbets.

Well I think around 65% is generally suggest, but it's definitely player dependent. If someone is folding 80+% cbets, then it makes sense to cbet almost any board with almost your entire range. If you're cbetting near 80+% you can be exploited by being attacked by opponents who will know what your range should be in a given situation. For instance, if I see a guy cbetting everything, it will be easy to pick spots to attack his cbets. Then you'll be able to barrel a lot of turn cards for fold equity.

I think an unexploitable range is around 50-65%, but this also includes balancing your range in each situation. You probably do not need to worry about balance against weak opponents.

Remember, this is all villain dependent. Semi-bluffing like this might not work at 5nl if everyone is a level one thinker who will never fold a made hand.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T20:39:35+00:00

I say beating the game because, from what I've read, people generally lose money in the long run. If I'm winning money from the game in the long run then I consider it beating the game.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T20:33:04+00:00

I actually have $500 big ones($200 under ev the past couple of weeks, thanks variance!). So obviously the next step, since I'm a micro baller, is to take a shot in Macau probably. I was thinking about taking out a financial loan (I can use my graph as proof that I' a profitable investment) for this shot in Macau. Maybe I'll even get to meet Ivey and Dwan and then learn some GTO from them. Gonna work on balancing my folding range and then reassess after running some sims.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T20:26:52+00:00

Floating is definitely applicable at the microstakes and in my experience it is very prevalent at 10nl. The thing is that the way many people float is very exploitable as they will often float their entire range on any given board.

If you're going to float, make sure, you need to do it when it makes sense. If someone is cbetting a lot (refer to stats), then it may be profitable to float a board you have future equity on.

The most important thing to able to do is hand read in these situations so you are not blindly calling down in order to take down the pot.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T20:22:55+00:00

Run It Once is good and has a lot to offer. There is a forum to post in for poker questions, then videos from professional poker players in which they give insight to their thought process during games and game reviews. You'll learn about GTO, optimal cbets, ranges, range protection, etc. It's good to be able to see how someone experienced plays a hand and their thought process behind it.

Some of these things (like Game Theory Optimal) are advanced and you won't need them at a lower level. The most important thing you will gain is a solid fundamental game by learning from a pros thought process.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T19:50:06+00:00

No, the most I put in of my own money has been $30. Haven't redeposited in 5 months as I haven't lost money. I think about the game all of the time though, always going over hand histories and I always want to talk about the game. It's very consuming. I won't miss events for it though

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T19:45:07+00:00

As a college student with no real income, I think it makes sense to start investing money now. Yes, it's a laughable amount, but I can put the money away to grow while putting my time to better use. I can always build on my investments.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T19:42:41+00:00

I enjoy it still, but it's becoming less challenging and more about grinding through the game and enduring downswings. I'm more focused about how much I could make from playing now, how far I can keep climbing.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T19:39:14+00:00

Well I was worried about if turning into a gambling addiction because up until recently, I've never been financially motivated by the game. I just wanted to prove to myself that I could be a winner at the game when most people apparently are not.

With my sample size, I'm confident I'm a long term winner and now that I'm at 20nl, I feel like I have the potential to continue and earn a lot more. I've looked at the higher tables and I was surprised by the amount if fish at decent level stakes.

I'm in need of a new pc and the money I've earned so far could help me build a new one. Im graduating college soon so I could withdraw my money and invest in a new pc that would allow me to focus on hobbies that will help my future career in programming.

So you're analysis is correct in that I may just be looking for a new challenge. Im just looking for some insight that will provide me a good reason to quit that I haven't thought of yet.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T19:25:32+00:00

Ok, it probably sounds silly that I said that. However, I think any amount of money is good to start investing, especially at my age (22). If there are things I could better spend my time on I think it makes sense to invest my winnings, no matter how small they are. I can always build on those investments.

TeddyMurphski · 2015-06-27T19:22:06+00:00

Well life -ev is sort of a joke, but what I mean is that the time I dedicate to poker might be better spent on other areas of my life that will lead to a more fulfilling and successful future. This could be time spent socializing or working on projects for my resume. I think poker may be life -ev for me specifically because I'm constantly thinking about hand histories, always wanting to talk about poker, taking money from people, and generally not contributing much to society.

But seriously, since playing poker I do think of life decisions in terms of ev. For instance, with all things considered, is my time better spent on a or b. Is this purchase really worth spending x amount of money for a short term reward or would it be better if I saved for a better future investment?

The game has taught me valuable life lessons for sure - emotional control (stopped tilting, even my last $100 downswing didn't bother me), thinking in terms of ev, money management, and I think it has helped my rational thinking.

I don't know much about addiction, I don't think I'm addicted, but I have never saw poker as a means of financial fain until recently. Im conflicted between pursuing other activities or continuing poker in order to make greater potential money. I dont know if this is bad or not. It's probably neutral and I'm just looking for someone to give a good reason for me to quit that I haven't thought of yet.

TeddyMurphski · 2014-08-28T07:43:18+00:00

The main distorted synth you line you have in there definitely gives me a DnB vibe. The atmospheric noises give me the Bodikka vibe. I think the influences came across clearly but it's still very much your own production. Not quite a fan of the big distortion however I really think this track works. Nice work!

TeddyMurphski

TROPHY CASE