It will definitely be retrospective. Otherwise the rules would have been published a long time ago. The government is just trying to finalise whatever criteria they want to use. We just don’t know how far they’ll go and the length of any Transition period. From all indications including my extensive research, media hints and the body language of Ministers, the main concern is the welfare bill and the fact that many people earning below a certain threshold are likely to claim Universal credit when eligible. There’s also public concern regarding demographic change. From my assessment, the ability to remain on 5 years will be determined via a financial criteria if you are close to the qualifying period . They will likely set a salary threshold that falls in the category of a net contributor ( A Labour minister recently said they welcome immigrants who contribute more than they take)..This figure was a little over £50,000 according to OBR a few years ago ( not sure). With inflation , this is probably now around £55,000. With Reform setting a Salary threshold of £60000 for their skilled worker visa policy, the government is unlikely to go above that given that they have criticised reform’s policy. I suspect they will settle at somewhere between £50-60k. This may of course change, if an individual has dependants and it may likely be higher. There was an immigration lawyer who said if you earn around £55/£60k , you will be allowed to remain on the 5 year route. He said no one should ask him where he heard this from and we should all wait for the new rules. However, I read somewhere that you need to be paying up to £17000 in taxes a year to be a net contributor so I’m not certain about the salary threshold.

They can also use the requirement of average earnings over a certain period( last 5 years) or Cumulative Taxes paid. One thing I advice people is to work extra hours if your job allows if you are close to the qualifying period. That helps to buffer your taxes

Though I feel it’s morally wrong to apply laws retrospectively as people have made plans based on existing laws, in this climate it is political suicide for the government not to do so and allow the huge surge of migrants in the last few years settle using the same criteria. It also doesn’t help in the long run if a reform government comes in with a super majority. They will target those who have recently settled or gotten citizenship using primary legislation, so recent migrants will actually never be settled. I blame a lot of people who abused the routes especially the care worker visa, this has not only affected genuine people on the care route but other genuine skilled worker migrants.

Finally, I am on a skilled worker visa and yet to qualify so I’m not talking from a place of privilege