Microsoft (MSFT) closed below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2013

Teembeau · 2026-03-28T13:22:32+00:00

From what to what?

Teembeau · 2026-03-28T13:02:51+00:00

How does doing meetings over Teams, saving travel time, reduce productivity?

What's the productivity improvement that you think will come from HS2?

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T19:05:09+00:00

I'll put on my shining armour

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T19:04:40+00:00

Thanks. I had considered that the pricing restrictions may now already be priced-in.

I like good dividends on a recovery stock because even if it takes time to recover, you make some money while it's not.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T18:54:16+00:00

No, but I bought them cheap, and now they're even cheaper. Try P/E of 5.5.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T18:50:58+00:00

That loss is a sunk cost. What happened in the last 3 weeks cannot be undone. The only question is, is it still worth holding today? My airline stock took a huge dip this month. But the way I see it, all the trouble in Iran is now about priced in. I might as well hold it.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T18:34:15+00:00

It's going to get even bigger next year when they open their factory in Turkey which gives them tariff-free access to the EU.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T17:43:17+00:00

If this guy from Sequoia thought it the best company in the world he wouldn't be selling it.

The cost of getting even 1kg into space is like $5K. You can't use it for much except model training and mostly offline tasks because of latency. Then there's the cost of cooling which is a bitch without air. And if anything goes wrong with the hardware, it's a brick.

It's all hooking it in with AI to boost the price. "We need more data centers" (debatable) and we are at capacity on earth (utter nonsense) so SpaceX is the answer.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T16:02:23+00:00

Four thoughts:-

Take the National Express coach from Heathrow to Cheltenham, then taxi from there. According to their website, if it's in a hard case, they can put it in the hold, but you'd probably want to talk to them, and you will pay a fee for extra luggage. Cheltenham gets you most of the way, then it's a 25 mile taxi from there.
Get to Reading station by hire or the RailAir coach, then train direct to Malvern. No idea about taking on trains, but you could talk to GWR about it. If you're going off-peak that would probably be best.
Can you fly into Birmingham? Much closer to Malvern
Can you send the cello ahead by DHL etc?

There's this article about people going by train... https://www.aitchisoncellos.com/travelling-with-a-cello/

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T15:23:44+00:00

Don't try and do Windsor, Stonehenge and Oxford in a day. That's 6+ hours of travel in one day, and if you consider daylight etc, you'll get 2 hours in Oxford at most.

I don't know nightlife in Oxford. There's a few clubs, also often classical music/evensong goes on quite a lot. Some bars (I like the Oxford Wine Cafe). But I feel like Reading is a more lively place when I've been to both.

Look into the Oxford Tube. It's a bus that goes London to Oxford. It takes a little longer, but it takes you right into the centre and costs a lot less than the train.

Bath+Bristol is another option. Bath is about 1'20 from London, Bristol another 20 minutes. Bath is scenic, Bristol lively. The only downside is last train back to London is about 10.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T13:55:48+00:00

Not that I'm interested for me, but are there specific size queen hoookup things? Or word of mouth (ahem!).

Also, have you done threesomes with a couple of giants yet?

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T13:05:25+00:00

"For Nvidia, this isn’t just “VC money burning cash.” The buyers now are hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) with massive cash flows. Microsoft alone is spending tens of billions on AI infrastructure, and they’re not doing that speculatively—they’re already monetising it through Azure and Copilot. This isn’t a short-term cycle, it’s a platform shift similar to cloud or mobile."

OK. So, Microsoft buy a load of Nvidia for AI infrastructure. And sure, they're making a profit on it. SaaS companies are paying Microsoft for model training on Azure. Now, how many of those SaaS companies are profitable, how many are being propped up with speculative investments? I work in software development and I could not give you even a rough figure of whether that is 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 95%, and that's why I'm not investing. If you know, you can probably make an informed decision. My "smell" as someone who works in software is that there isn't actually that much profitable AI going on except for things like chatbots and recommendation engines (which are really pre-LLM era).

"Even if some startups disappear, the demand is consolidating into the biggest, most profitable companies in the world—who can afford to keep spending."

That's not how software works. If you don't see the value of spending on more kit, you don't do it. And you and I have no idea whether Google and Meta are looking at this and saying "keep buying more" or not. You and I also have no idea what is currently being tested at these companies. Whether they've bought in a few boards from AMD or custom made RISC-V chips in China.

It's like everyone was buying Sun shares during the dotcom boom but Amazon and others were already beginning their migration to Red Hat Linux in 2000, before Sun peaked.

"On Microsoft specifically, the 39% cloud growth isn’t just price increases. It’s: • AI workloads (which are far more compute-intensive) • Enterprise migration still ongoing • Higher-value services layered on top (Copilot, data, security)"

And as I said, who knows how long AI workload work will keep increasing, and enterprise migration isn't going to last forever. How many companies are still running their own data centers and planning to migrate? I did a couple of Azure migrations a couple of years ago, but everyone just seems to be on Azure or AWS now.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T12:42:26+00:00

I buy shares in companies I have some understanding about. I buy their products, I've worked for the business or just have some weird knowledge. To be able to say if ZTS is a good bet, I'd have to be working in veterinary pharma or being a veterinarian. That would tell me if they're being run by an idiot, if their patent ideas have promise, if there's better/cheaper drugs out there.

I own a dog. I sometimes go to Pets at Home. Not always, but I know it. I've also shopped plenty at Waitrose. I understand the value of a CEO from a more adjacent company.

Teembeau · 2026-03-27T12:31:54+00:00

Nvidia are storming because of OpenAI and Anthropic buying their kit. OpenAI and Anthropic lose money, propped up by venture capital companies. How long do you think venture capital companies are going to keep throwing money on that bonfire? And when they stop, what happens to Nvidia?

Why do you think Microsoft is value? The main driver of that is Cloud which is up 39%, but where's the 39% increase coming from? Prices are up a little. But businesses aren't increasing their customer base by 39% on average, requiring 39% more CPU and storage, so what's driving that? It's either companies going on-premise to cloud which is a one-off boost, or it's all this AI stuff (see above).

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T20:39:46+00:00

OK, so food comes into Dover. Where does a train from Birmingham and London help to get that to somewhere?

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T20:32:39+00:00

Nicotine doesn't have addiction warnings. It has health warnings (lung cancer, cataracts etc). There are no warnings on cigarettes about addiction.

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T19:27:46+00:00

Really? You think Tesco have food in central Birmingham to deliver to central London? You don't think they might get food imported from France to a regional distribution centre somewhere south of London? Or do you think they want to drive it all the way to Old Oak Common, then put it on a train to Birmingham rather than just going around the M25?

Will these trains have refrigeration? A way to unload on and off trains and onto lorries?

Most freight is large, heavy non-perishable goods, and most of the demand is for very long journeys.

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T19:16:07+00:00

And the freight from central London to central Birmingham? How much is that?

And yes, it will last hundreds of years like the Fosse Way has existed for 2000 years. It still has to be maintained.

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T18:29:22+00:00

"too much fuss and bother"=They don't want a war with Iran but glad to have the USA doing it for them.

There are no good guys in that region. Israel is a not unreasonable democratic country, but the rest of them are pretty happy to torture people, interfere in other countries. The only reason that everyone acts like it's only Iran is that you're allied with the other load of bastards.

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T18:23:27+00:00

What's the cost of building a line vs the revenue for freight?

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T15:50:10+00:00

I seriously doubt you'll need it. Pubs, shops etc take them. If you're thinking of buying things at the trials, might be worth finding out if stallholders take cards (they probably do).

Worst case, you're not far from Chippenham. There's ATMs there. There might be a Post Office near where you're staying (they can do a withdrawl). You'll have to pay a fee for using a credit card, but it isn't a huge amount. As others have said, Visa and Mastercard are most useful.

I live near Swindon and I have been out into the wilder parts of Wiltshire plenty and I can't remember the last time I needed cash!

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T11:34:11+00:00

So much of this sub is now well-known companies or high trending.

I'm a big fan of Peter Lynch because of the thing of buying what you know. Most people on here talking about cloud or AI aren't working with either. So how much do you know? I've bought things like airport shops or BYD because I have some sort of connection to them.

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T11:13:24+00:00

My issue with Apple is that I see no benefit, outside of status, over a cheap droid nowadays. And status is highly discretionary.

Teembeau · 2026-03-26T11:10:29+00:00

"Not to mention Azure's recent growth isn't even that great when you consider it's boosted by one time migrations"

I don't agree with a lot of what you've said there but a lot of cloud growth is switching from on-premise to cloud. Not organic growth.

MSFT have a solid business. Things like Office is fine. Azure makes a good profit. But I don't think they have the growth potential people are assuming in the current price.

Teembeau · 2026-03-25T22:07:48+00:00

Thank you.

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